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VARIABLE
WEEK VI
3/20/2019 4
7
No of deaths
Mortality rate =
Population
No of deaths
Case fatality rate = No of clinically ill
No of clinically ill
Morbidity rate = Population
No of infected
Infection rate = Population
Sample calculation:
Assume that an outbreak of AI occurs in an Asian country. Health
authorities record 98 case of the disease, all of whom are
untreated. Among these, 60 deaths are reported.
Number of cases
5-month CI = –––––––––––––––––––
Population at risk
Incidence proportion estimates risk.
R=1
R<1
Time
Endemic
Transmission occur, but the number of cases remains constant
Epidemic
The number of cases increases
Pandemic
When epidemics occur at several continents – global epidemic
(www)
epi- pts fapet-2013 14
Level of disease occurence
Sporadic level: occasional cases occurring at irregular intervals
Endemic level: persistent occurrence with a low to moderate level
Hyperendemic level: persistently high level of occurrence
Epidemic or outbreak: occurrence clearly in excess of the expected
level for a given time period
Pandemic: epidemic spread over several countries or continents,
affecting a large number of people
Endemic Epidemic
Time
TIM EPID FAPETT 2019 3/20/2019 17
Sporadic pattern
TIM EPID FAPETT 2019
Epidemic pattern
2//02/2019 18
DISTRIBUTION OF DISEASE
AVIAN INFLUENZA
EPIDEMIC
NEW CASTLE DISEASE
SPORADIC ANTHRAX
BRUCELLOSIS
STRATEGIC DISEASES AVIAN INFLUENZA
FMD
TIM EPID FAPETT 2017/II/III/PTS 3/20/2019 20
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