Statistics For Managers Using Microsoft Excel: 6 Edition

Statistics for Managers using
Microsoft Excel
6th Edition
Chapter 7
Sampling and Sampling Distributions
Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

7-1
Learning Objectives
In this chapter, you learn:

 To distinguish between different sampling
methods
 The concept of the sampling distribution
 To compute probabilities related to the sample
mean and the sample proportion
 The importance of the Central Limit Theorem

7-2
Why Sample? DCOVA
 Selecting a sample is less time-consuming than

selecting every item in the population (census).
 An analysis of a sample is less cumbersome

and more practical than an analysis of the entire
population.

7-3
A Sampling Process Begins With A
Sampling Frame DCOVA
 The sampling frame is a listing of items that

make up the population
 Frames are data sources such as population
lists, directories, or maps
 Inaccurate or biased results can result if a
frame excludes certain portions of the
population
 Using different frames to generate data can
lead to dissimilar conclusions

7-4
Types of Samples DCOVA
Samples
Non-Probability Probability Samples

Samples
Simple Stratified
Judgment Convenience Random
Systematic Cluster

7-5
Types of Samples:
Nonprobability Sample DCOVA
 In a nonprobability sample, items included are

chosen without regard to their probability of
occurrence.
 In convenience sampling, items are selected based
only on the fact that they are easy, inexpensive, or
convenient to sample.
 In a judgment sample, you get the opinions of pre-
selected experts in the subject matter.

7-6
Types of Samples:
Probability Sample DCOVA
 In a probability sample, items in the

sample are chosen on the basis of known
probabilities.
Probability Samples
Simple
Systematic Stratified Cluster
Random

7-7
Probability Sample:
Simple Random Sample DCOVA
 Every individual or item from the frame has an

equal chance of being selected
 Selection may be with replacement (selected

individual is returned to frame for possible
reselection) or without replacement (selected
individual isn’t returned to the frame).
 Samples obtained from table of random

numbers or computer random number
generators.
7-8
Selecting a Simple Random Sample
Using A Random Number Table DCOVA
Portion Of A Random Number Table
Sampling Frame For 49280 88924 35779 00283 81163 07275
Population With 850 11100 02340 12860 74697 96644 89439

09893 23997 20048 49420 88872 08401
Items
Item Name Item # The First 5 Items in a simple
Bev R. 001 random sample
Ulan X. 002 Item # 492
. . Item # 808
. . Item # 892 -- does not exist so ignore
. . Item # 435
. . Item # 779
Joann P. 849 Item # 002
Paul F. 850

7-9
Probability Sample:
Systematic Sample DCOVA
 Decide on sample size: n

 Divide frame of N individuals into groups of k
individuals: k=N/n
 Randomly select one individual from the 1st
group
 Select every kth individual thereafter
N = 40 First Group
n=4
k = 10
7-10
Probability Sample:
Stratified Sample DCOVA
 Divide population into two or more subgroups (called strata) according

to some common characteristic
 A simple random sample is selected from each subgroup, with sample
sizes proportional to strata sizes
 Samples from subgroups are combined into one
 This is a common technique when sampling population of voters,
stratifying across racial or socio-economic lines.
Population
Divided
into 4
strata

7-11
Probability Sample
Cluster Sample DCOVA
 Population is divided into several “clusters,” each representative of

the population
 A simple random sample of clusters is selected
 All items in the selected clusters can be used, or items can be
chosen from a cluster using another probability sampling technique
 A common application of cluster sampling involves election exit polls,
where certain election districts are selected and sampled.
Population
divided into
16 clusters. Randomly selected
clusters for sample
7-12
Probability Sample:
Comparing Sampling Methods
DCOVA
 Simple random sample and Systematic sample

 Simple to use
 May not be a good representation of the population’s
underlying characteristics
 Stratified sample
 Ensures representation of individuals across the entire
population
 Cluster sample
 More cost effective
 Less efficient (need larger sample to acquire the same
level of precision)

7-13
Evaluating Survey Worthiness
DCOVA
 What is the purpose of the survey?

 Is the survey based on a probability sample?
 Coverage error – appropriate frame?
 Nonresponse error – follow up
 Measurement error – good questions elicit good
responses
 Sampling error – always exists

7-14
Types of Survey Errors DCOVA
 Coverage error or selection bias

 Exists if some groups are excluded from the frame and have
no chance of being selected
 Non response error or bias

 People who do not respond may be different from those who
do respond
 Sampling error
 Variation from sample to sample will always exist
 Measurement error
 Due to weaknesses in question design, respondent error, and
interviewer’s effects on the respondent (“Hawthorne effect”)
7-15
Types of Survey Errors
DCOVA
(continued)
 Coverage error Excluded from

frame
 Non response error Follow up on

nonresponses
 Sampling error Random

differences from
sample to sample
 Measurement error Bad or leading
question
7-16
Sampling Distributions
DCOVA
 A sampling distribution is a distribution of all of the
possible values of a sample statistic for a given size
sample selected from a population.
 For example, suppose you sample 50 students from your

college regarding their mean GPA. If you obtained many
different samples of 50, you will compute a different
mean for each sample. We are interested in the
distribution of all potential mean GPA we might calculate
for any given sample of 50 students.

7-17
Developing a
Sampling Distribution
DCOVA
 Assume there is a population …

C D
 Population size N=4 A B
 Random variable, X,
is age of individuals
 Values of X: 18, 20,
22, 24 (years)

7-18
Developing a
(continued)
DCOVA
Summary Measures for the Population Distribution:
μ
 X i P(x)
N .3
18  20  22  24
  21 .2
4 .1
 (X  μ) 2 0
18 20 22 24 x
σ i
 2.236 A B C D
N
Uniform Distribution

7-19
Developing a
(continued)
Now consider all possible samples of size n=2 DCOVA
16 Sample
1st 2nd Observation
Obs Means
18 20 22 24
18 18,18 18,20 18,22 18,24 1st 2nd Observation
20 20,18 20,20 20,22 20,24 Obs 18 20 22 24
22 22,18 22,20 22,22 22,24 18 18 19 20 21
24 24,18 24,20 24,22 24,24 20 19 20 21 22
16 possible samples 22 20 21 22 23
(sampling with
replacement)
24 21 22 23 24
7-20
Developing a
Sampling Distribution DCOVA
(continued)
Sampling Distribution of All Sample Means
16 Sample Means Sample Means

Distribution
1st 2nd Observation _
Obs 18 20 22 24 P(X)
.3
18 18 19 20 21
.2
20 19 20 21 22
.1
22 20 21 22 23
0 _
24 21 22 23 24 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 X
(no longer uniform)
7-21
Developing a
DCOVA
(continued)
Summary Measures of this Sampling Distribution:
18  19  19    24
μX   21
16
(18 - 21) 2  (19 - 21) 2    (24 - 21) 2
σX   1.58
16
Note: Here we divide by 16 because there are 16

different samples of size 2.

7-22
Comparing the Population Distribution
to the Sample Means Distribution
DCOVA
Population Sample Means Distribution
N=4 n=2
μ  21 σ  2.236 μX  21 σ X  1.58
_
P(X) P(X)
.3 .3
.2 .2
.1 .1
0 X 0
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
_
18 20 22 24 X
A B C D
7-23
Sample Mean Sampling Distribution:
Standard Error of the Mean
DCOVA
 Different samples of the same size from the same
population will yield different sample means
 A measure of the variability in the mean from sample to
sample is given by the Standard Error of the Mean:
(This assumes that sampling is with replacement or
sampling is without replacement from an infinite population)
σ
σX 
n
 Note that the standard error of the mean decreases as
the sample size increases
7-24
If the Population is Normal
DCOVA
 If a population is normal with mean μ and

standard deviation σ, the sampling distribution
of X is also normally distributed with
σ
μX  μ and σX 
n

7-25
Z-value for Sampling Distribution
of the Mean
DCOVA
 Z-value for the sampling distribution of X :
( X  μX ) ( X  μ)
Z 
σX σ
n
where: X = sample mean
μ = population mean
σ = population standard deviation
n = sample size

7-26
Sampling Distribution Properties
DCOVA
Normal Population

μx  μ Distribution
μ x
(i.e. x is unbiased ) Normal Sampling
Distribution
(has the same mean)
μx
x
7-27
Sampling Distribution Properties
(continued)
DCOVA
As n increases, Larger
sample size
σ x decreases
Smaller
sample size
μ x
7-28
Determining An Interval Including A
Fixed Proportion of the Sample Means
DCOVA
Find a symmetrically distributed interval around µ
that will include 95% of the sample means when µ
= 368, σ = 15, and n = 25.
 Since the interval contains 95% of the sample means
5% of the sample means will be outside the interval
 Since the interval is symmetric 2.5% will be above
the upper limit and 2.5% will be below the lower limit.
 From the standardized normal table, the Z score with
2.5% (0.0250) below it is -1.96 and the Z score with
2.5% (0.0250) above it is 1.96.

7-29
Determining An Interval Including A
Fixed Proportion of the Sample Means
(continued)
DCOVA
 Calculating the lower limit of the interval
σ 15
XL  μ Z  368  (1.96)  362.12
n 25
 Calculating the upper limit of the interval
σ 15
XU  μ  Z  368  (1.96)  373.88
n 25
 95% of all sample means of sample size 25 are
between 362.12 and 373.88

7-30
If the Population is not Normal
DCOVA
 We can apply the Central Limit Theorem:
 Even if the population is not normal,
 …sample means from the population will be
approximately normal as long as the sample size is
large enough.
Properties of the sampling distribution:
σ
μx  μ and σx 
n
7-31
Central Limit Theorem
DCOVA
the sampling
As the n↑ distribution of
sample the sample
size gets mean becomes
large almost normal
enough… regardless of
shape of
population

x
7-32
If the Population is not Normal
(continued)
Population Distribution DCOVA

Sampling distribution
properties:
Central Tendency
μx  μ
μ x
Variation
σ
σx 
(becomes normal as n increases)
Larger
n Smaller
sample size
sample
size
μx x
7-33
How Large is Large Enough?
DCOVA
 For most distributions, n > 30 will give a

sampling distribution that is nearly normal
 For fairly symmetric distributions, n > 15
 For normal population distributions, the
sampling distribution of the mean is always
normally distributed

7-34
Example
DCOVA
 Suppose a population has mean μ = 8 and

standard deviation σ = 3. Suppose a random
sample of size n = 36 is selected.
 What is the probability that the sample mean is

between 7.8 and 8.2?

7-35
Example
(continued)
Solution: DCOVA
 Even if the population is not normally

distributed, the central limit theorem can be
used (n > 30)
 … so the sampling distribution of x is
approximately normal
 … with mean μx = 8
σ 3
 …and standard deviation σ x  n  36  0.5
7-36
Example
(continued)
Solution (continued): DCOVA
 
 7.8 - 8 X -μ 8.2 - 8 
P(7.8  X  8.2)  P   
 3 σ 3 
 36 n 36 
 P(-0.4  Z  0.4)  0.6554 - 0.3446  0.3108
Population Sampling Standard Normal

Distribution Distribution Distribution
???
? ??
? ? Sample Standardize
? ? ?
?
-0.4 0.4
μ8 X 7.8
μX  8
8.2
x μz  0 Z
7-37
Population Proportions
DCOVA
π = the proportion of the population having
some characteristic
 Sample proportion (p) provides an estimate
of π:
X number of items in the sample having the characteri stic of interest
p 
n sample size
 0≤ p≤1
 p is approximately distributed as a normal distribution
when n is large
(assuming sampling with replacement from a finite population or
without replacement from an infinite population)
7-38
Sampling Distribution of p
DCOVA
 Approximated by a
normal distribution if: Sampling Distribution
P( ps)
.3

nπ  5 .2
.1
and 0
0 .2 .4 .6 8 1 p
n(1  π )  5
where
π(1 π )
μp  π and σp 
n
(where π = population proportion)
7-39
Z-Value for Proportions
DCOVA
Standardize p to a Z value with the formula:
p  p 
Z 
σp  (1  )
n

7-40
Example
DCOVA
 If the true proportion of voters who support

Proposition A is π = 0.4, what is the probability
that a sample of size 200 yields a sample
proportion between 0.40 and 0.45?
 i.e.: if π = 0.4 and n = 200, what is

P(0.40 ≤ p ≤ 0.45) ?

7-41
Example
(continued)
 if π = 0.4 and n = 200, what is DCOVA
P(0.40 ≤ p ≤ 0.45) ?
 (1  ) 0.4(1  0.4)

Find σ p : σp    0.03464
n 200
Convert to  0.40  0.40 0.45  0.40 

P(0.40  p  0.45)  P Z 
standardized  0.03464 0.03464 
normal:
 P(0  Z  1.44)

7-42
Example
(continued)
 if π = 0.4 and n = 200, what is DCOVA
P(0.40 ≤ p ≤ 0.45) ?
Utilize the cumulative normal table:
P(0 ≤ Z ≤ 1.44) = 0.9251 – 0.5000 = 0.4251
Standardized
Sampling Distribution Normal Distribution
0.4251
Standardize
0.40 0.45 0 1.44

p Z
7-43
Chapter Summary
 Discussed probability and nonprobability samples

 Described four common probability samples
 Examined survey worthiness and types of survey
errors
 Introduced sampling distributions
 Described the sampling distribution of the mean
 For normal populations
 Using the Central Limit Theorem
 Described the sampling distribution of a proportion

 Calculated probabilities using sampling distributions

7-44
Statistics for Managers using
Microsoft Excel
6th Edition
Online Topic
Sampling From Finite Populations

7-45
Learning Objectives
In this chapter, you learn:

 To know when finite population corrections are
needed
 To know how to utilize finite population
corrections factors in calculating standard errors

7-46
Finite Population Correction
Factors
DCOVA
 Used to calculate the standard error of both the

sample mean and the sample proportion
 Needed when the sample size, n, is more than

5% of the population size N (i.e. n / N > 0.05)
 The Finite Population Correction Factor Is:

N n
fpc 
N 1
7-47
Using The fpc In Calculating
Standard Errors
DCOVA
Standard Error of the Mean for Finite Populations
 N n
x 
n N 1
Standard Error of the Proportion for Finite Populations
 (1   ) N  n
p 
n N 1

7-48
Using The fpc Reduces The
Standard Error
DCOVA
 The fpc is always less than 1
 So when it is used it reduces the standard error
 Resulting in more precise estimates of

population parameters

7-49
Using fpc With The Mean -
Example
DCOVA
Suppose a random sample of size 100 is drawn from a
population of size 1000 with a standard deviation of 40.
Here n=100, N=1000 and 100/1000 = 0.10 > 0.05.

So using the fpc for the standard error of the mean we get:
40 1000  100
x   3.8
100 1000  1

7-50
Section Summary
 Identified when a finite population correction

should be used.
 Identified how to utilize a finite population

correction factor in calculating the standard
error of both a sample mean and a sample
proportion

7-51
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Printed in the United States of America.

7-52

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Statistics for Managers using

Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

In this chapter, you learn:

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

 Selecting a sample is less time-consuming than

 An analysis of a sample is less cumbersome

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

 The sampling frame is a listing of items that

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Non-Probability Probability Samples

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

 In a nonprobability sample, items included are

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

 In a probability sample, items in the

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

 Every individual or item from the frame has an

 Selection may be with replacement (selected

 Samples obtained from table of random

Population With 850 11100 02340 12860 74697 96644 89439

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

 Decide on sample size: n

 Divide population into two or more subgroups (called strata) according

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

 Population is divided into several “clusters,” each representative of

 Simple random sample and Systematic sample

 May not be a good representation of the population’s

 Less efficient (need larger sample to acquire the same

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

 What is the purpose of the survey?

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

 Coverage error or selection bias

 Non response error or bias

 Coverage error Excluded from

 Non response error Follow up on

 Sampling error Random

 For example, suppose you sample 50 students from your

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

 Assume there is a population …

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

16 Sample Means Sample Means

Summary Measures of this Sampling Distribution:

Note: Here we divide by 16 because there are 16

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

 If a population is normal with mean μ and

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Properties of the sampling distribution:

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

Population Distribution DCOVA

 For most distributions, n > 30 will give a

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

 Suppose a population has mean μ = 8 and

 What is the probability that the sample mean is

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

 Even if the population is not normally

Population Sampling Standard Normal

Copyright ©2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall

 If the true proportion of voters who support

 i.e.: if π = 0.4 and n = 200, what is