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Lecture- VIII
Project Scheduling with probabilistic activity
Uncertain Activity Durations
For each activity in the project three time estimates are obtained
- Optimistic time, a
- Most likely time, m
- Pessimistic time, b
PERT Time Estimates
• [ a,b are the location parameters and c,d are the shape parameters ]
Why choose BETA ?
• Intuitive appeal.
• UNIFORM
• TRIANGULAR
• EXPONENTIAL
• NORMAL
• DISCRETE
UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION
TRIANGULAR DISTRIBUTION
EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
DISCRETE DISTRIBUTION
Basic PERT Procedure
• Compute mean and variance of all jobs.
• Conduct forward and backward pass on the project network with expected times of all
activities.
• The critical path contains a large no. of activities so that we can invoke the Central Limit
Theorem.
• The mean and variance of the activities are given by (a+4m+b)/6 and [(b-a)/6]2.