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NORTHEASTERN

UNIVERSITY
Dr. Marco Montes de Oca
ALY6020 Predictive Analytics
Fraud Detection Analysis

Presented by: Sumit Kashyap, Mohit abbi, Srushti Tarapara


Facts:
• The number of total identity fraud victims in the U.S., which
partially includes credit card fraud victims, reached an all-time high
of 15.4 million people in 2016, according to a recent study.
• Global Credit card and debit card fraud resulted in losses
amounting to $21.84 billion during 2015. Card issuers and
merchants incurred 72% and 28% of those losses, respectively, with
the following transaction
What can you Do?
• Don’t give your account number to anyone on the phone unless you’ve
made the call to a company you know to be reputable. If you’ve never done
business with them before, do an online search first for reviews or
complaints.
• Never sign a blank receipt. Draw a line through any blank spaces above the
total.
• Open your bills promptly — or check them online often — and reconcile
them with the purchases you’ve made.
• Report any questionable charges to the card issuer.
• Notify your card issuer if your address changes or if you will be traveling.
• Don’t write your account number on the outside of an envelope.
How Data Analytics can fight the credit card
Fraud

• Searching for duplicate transactions where there are unexpected


patterns
• Even amounts- This is another type of technique to identify fraud.
• Ratio Analysis- This a fraud detection technique
Modeling Technique for fraud detection
• Supervised learning
• Unsupervised learning
• Anomaly detection with deep learning
• Pre-training supervised models with autoencoders
Exploratory Data Analysis

Modeling

Steps Involved Modeling using autoencoder


in Analysis Dimension Reduction using hidden layer

Anomaly Detection

Model accuracy
Data Description
Exploratory Data Analysis

• Separated the
number of transaction
according to days- Day
1 and Day 2
Exploratory Data Analysis
• Further divided the days into
the 4 groups as Gr1,Gr2,Gr3
and Gr4 for both class 0 and
1
Exploratory Data Analysis

• It explains the
trends of transition
amount per counts.
H2o for neural network
• H2O is an open source, in-memory, distributed, fast, and scalable
machine learning and predictive analytics platform that allows you to
build machine learning models on big data and provides easy
productionalization of those models in an enterprise environment.
Modeling using autoencoder
model_nn <- h2o.deeplearning(x = features,
training_frame = train_unsupervised,
model_id = "model_nn",
autoencoder = TRUE,
reproducible = TRUE, #slow - turn off for real problems
ignore_const_cols = FALSE,
seed = 42,
hidden = c(10, 2, 10),
epochs = 100,
activation = "Tanh")
Exploring hidden features

• Using the dimensionality


reduction to explore feature
spaces using h20.deepfeature
Anomaly detection

• Observed higher MSE for


fraud than non-fraud
Visual representation of model accuracy
Advantages of Analytics in Fraud Detection
• Better consumer money protection
• Lesser resources consumption for fraud detection
• Faster Action
• Improved Banking survives

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