management? Energy today • Most of the energy we use today comes from fossil fuels: coal, oil, gas • Coal, oil, and natural gas are all fossil fuels created several millions of years before by the decay of plants and animals • Run out some time in the future • Pollution, green house gas emission Energy consumption- sustainability problem Energy consumption • 3500 - 4000 BC sailing ship, windmills, hydro watermills, woods – renewables • Industrial revolution – technology based on fossil fuel • Population growth 3.2 times 1850-1970, energy use fold 20 times. • 10000 million ton of oil equivalent (mtoe) 90% energy come from fossil. • In 2005 world primary energy increased by 2,7%. Energy use • World Population in • 2000 around 6 Million; 1,7 toe/person • 2025 around 8 million.
• Developed countries 6x developing countries in
energy consumption, but 1/3 of population Future trends • World energy demand in 2020 nearly 600000 PJ(14400 Mtoe) • IEA prediction 13% projected growth next two decade will be served by renewable energy • Emission CO2 39% from 1990 to 2010, and 66% to 2020 • Kyoto protocol commits to reduce CO2 at least 5% Future trends • Oil consumption will decline after 2030. • Natural gas will take over. • Coal with gasification technology will be more economic. VISION 2050 • Rapid increase of renewable energy use combine with strong increase in energy efficiency • Demand for fossil and nuclear will decrease • Middle 21st century 60% world electricity use renewable energy. • 2050 no more fossil fuel, 2020 no more nuclear. Vision 2050 • Combination on large increase on renewable energy use with increase in energy efficiency equipment fold 2- 7 times • Energy efficient based on proven efficient electric appliances, houses with passive heating and cooling, transportation on electricity and hydrogen. . . . RESERVES of FOSSIL FUELS • 1973 fuel crisis USA major oil exporter become oil importer • Ratio world’s fossil resource : Reserve/production ratio • Nuclear also depleted next 60 years • Western europe reserve/production for 10 years • North america 25 years • Middle east 100 years • Middle east has 60% world reserves. • saudi arabia has 25% of it oil • 807 billion barrels has been extracted. • 995 billion barrels the rest • In 2040 some where between 2010 and 2025 oil will decline. . Natural gas • Soviet union has 40% reserves, 40% OPEC region. • 1970 850 billion cu.m, today almost 2000 cu.m increase 2.3%/year coal • 2005 consume rising by 5%/year, china by 11% • More pollution compare to oil and gas. More sulfur, CO2, etc. Nuclear? • Like the fossil fuels, uranium is also one of the depletable natural resources. If uranium is only used in a once- through cycle where it is burned in a reactor only once and disposed as a waste thereafter, confirmed reserves are destined to be depleted in the next 60 years ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT ON ENERGY USE • Climate change • GHG effect, CO2 and CH4 • Global warming at the rate 0.3 deg Celcius per decade • Trees absorb CO2 when they grow. When they cut and burned, they release the CO2. • CH4 release from natural gas, animal dung. Pollution effect 3x CO2 CO2 pollution • Each year, the equivalent of approx. 10 000 million tons of coal is consumed on earth as energy. • About 40 % from this is based on oil and together with coal and natural gas. • More than 90 % of the total energy consumption result from carbon atoms in these fossil fuels. The consequence will be a global warming (greenhouse effect) and the lack of resources in the future. . . • The majority of scientists now believe that global warming is taking place, at a rate of around 0,3 deg. C per decade . • and that it is caused by increases in the concentration of so-called “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere. • The most important single component of these greenhouse gas emissions is carbon dioxide (CO2). • The major source of emissions of CO2 are power plants, automobiles, and industry. Combustion of fossil fuels contributes around 80 percent to total world-wide anthropogenic CO2 emissions. How global warming works • Since the industrial revolution, humans have been adding huge quantities of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. • More greenhouse gases means that more heat is trapped, which causes global warming. By burning coal, oil and natural gas increases atmospheric concentrations of these gases. • Over the past century, increases in industry, transportation, and electricity production have increased gas concentrations in the atmosphere faster than natural processes can remove them leading to human-caused warming of the globe evidence • The global average temperature has increased by about 0.5 deg. C and sea level has risen by about 30 centimetres in the past century. 1998 was the hottest year since accurate records began in the 1840s, and ten of the hottest years have occurred during the last 15 years. • There has been a 50 percent reduction in glacier ice in the European Alps since 1900. Alaska’s Columbia Glacier has retreated more than 12 kilometres in the last 16 years while temperatures there have increased . FUTURE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE • Seas level will rise. Rising sea level will erode beaches and coastal wetlands destroying essential habitat and leaving coastal areas more prone to flooding. Just a 50 centimetres sea level rise would double the global population at risk from storm surges. • Food crop yields will be affected. A warmer climate will increase irrigation demands and the range of certain pests, but it will also extend the growing season for some areas. While some countries will find their food production increases with a warmer climate, the poorest countries that are already subject to hunger are likely to suffer significant decreases in food production. • More people will die from heat stress. Severe heat waves like the one. that killed hundreds of people in Chicago in 1995 will become more frequent. Children and the elderly are most vulnerable to heat stress. • Tropical diseases will spread. Infectious diseases such as Malaria, Dengue fever, encephalitis, and cholera that are spread by mosquitoes and other disease-carrying organisms which thrive in warmer climates will be able to advance into new areas. This will lead to more incidents like malaria outbreaks in New Jersey and Dengue fever in Texas. • The water cycle will be disrupted. As the water cycle intensifies, some areas will experience more severe . droughts, while others will have increased flooding. This variability will stress areas that are already prone to water quality and quantity problems. • Endangered species will suffer. Some of the most vulnerable plants, animals, and ecosystems will suffer major changes. Ten species at high risk from global warming are: Giant Panda, Polar Bear, Indian Tiger, Reindeer, Beluga Whale, Rockhopper Penguin, Snow Finch, Harlequin Frog, Monarch Butterfly, and Grizzly Bear. • Coral reefs will be harmed. Overheating of ocean waters, as a result of global warming, can lead to coral bleaching, which is a breakdown of the complex biological systems that corals have evolved in order to survive. • ACID RAIN .
• SO2 (Sulphur dioxide) + NO (Nitrogen
Oxide) + H2O (Water) = Acid rain • DAMAGE TO TREES AND SOIL • DESTRUCTION OF BUILDINGS . .