Capital budgeting

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Capital budgeting

© All Rights Reserved

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CHAPTER 8

Nature of Investment Decisions

The investment decisions of a firm are generally known as the

capital budgeting, or capital expenditure decisions.

expansion, acquisition, modernisation and replacement of the

long-term assets. Sale of a division or business (divestment) is also

as an investment decision.

an advertisement campaign or a research and development

programme have long-term implications for the firm’s

expenditures and benefits, and therefore, they should also be

evaluated as investment decisions.

Features of Investment Decisions

The exchange of current funds for future benefits.

series of years.

Importance of Investment Decisions

Growth

Risk

Funding

Irreversibility

Complexity

Types of Investment Decisions

One classification is as follows:

Expansion of existing business

Expansion of new business

Replacement and modernisation

Yetanother useful way to classify investments is as

follows:

Mutually exclusive investments

Independent investments

Contingent investments

Investment Evaluation Criteria

Threesteps are involved in the evaluation of an

investment:

1. Estimation of cash flows

2. Estimation of the required rate of return (the

opportunity cost of capital)

3. Application of a decision rule for making the choice

Investment Decision Rule

It should maximise the shareholders’ wealth.

It should consider all cash flows to determine the true profitability of

the project.

It should provide for an objective and unambiguous way of separating

good projects from bad projects.

It should help ranking of projects according to their true profitability.

It should recognise the fact that bigger cash flows are preferable to

smaller ones and early cash flows are preferable to later ones.

It should help to choose among mutually exclusive projects that project

which maximises the shareholders’ wealth.

It should be a criterion which is applicable to any conceivable

investment project independent of others.

Evaluation Criteria

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Criteria

Net Present Value (NPV)

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

Profitability Index (PI)

2. Non-discounted Cash Flow Criteria

Payback Period (PB)

Discounted payback period (DPB)

Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)

Net Present Value Method

Cash flows of the investment project should be forecasted

based on realistic assumptions.

Appropriate discount rate should be identified to discount the

forecasted cash flows.

Present value of cash flows should be calculated using the

opportunity cost of capital as the discount rate.

Net present value should be found out by subtracting present

value of cash outflows from present value of cash inflows. The

project should be accepted if NPV is positive (i.e., NPV > 0).

Net Present Value Method

as follows:

C1 C2 C3 Cn

NPV C0

(1 k ) (1 k ) (1 k ) (1 k )

2 3 n

n

Ct

NPV C0

t 1 (1 k )

t

Calculating Net Present Value

Assume that Project X costs Rs 2,500 now and is expected to

generate year-end cash inflows of Rs 900, Rs 800, Rs 700, Rs

600 and Rs 500 in years 1 through 5. The opportunity cost of

the capital may be assumed to be 10 per cent.

Why is NPV Important?

Positive net present value of an investment represents the maximum

amount a firm would be ready to pay for purchasing the opportunity

of making investment, or the amount at which the firm would be

willing to sell the right to invest without being financially worse-

off.

amount the firm could raise at the required rate of return, in addition

to the initial cash outlay, to distribute immediately to its

shareholders and by the end of the projects’ life, to have paid off all

the capital raised and return on it.

Acceptance Rule

Accept the project when NPV is positive

NPV > 0

Reject the project when NPV is negative

NPV < 0

May accept the project when NPV is zero

NPV = 0

exclusive projects; the one with the higher NPV should be

selected.

Evaluation of the NPV Method

NPV is most acceptable investment rule for the

following reasons:

Time value

Measure of true profitability

Value-additivity

Shareholder value

Limitations:

Involved cash flow estimation

Discount rate difficult to determine

Mutually exclusive projects

Ranking of projects

INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN METHOD

equates the investment outlay with the present

value of cash inflow received after one period. This

also implies that the rate of return is the discount

rate which makes NPV = 0.

CALCULATION OF IRR

Uneven Cash Flows: Calculating IRR by Trial and

Error

The approach is to select any discount rate to compute

the present value of cash inflows. If the calculated

present value of the expected cash inflow is lower than

the present value of cash outflows, a lower rate should

be tried. On the other hand, a higher value should be

tried if the present value of inflows is higher than the

present value of outflows. This process will be repeated

unless the net present value becomes zero.

CALCULATION OF IRR

Level Cash Flows

Let us assume that an investment would cost Rs 20,000

and provide annual cash inflow of Rs 5,430 for 6 years

The IRR of the investment can be found out as follows

Rs 20,000 Rs 5,430(PVAF6,r )

Rs 20,000

PVAF6,r 3.683

Rs 5,430

NPV Profile and IRR

NPV Profile

Acceptance Rule

Accept the project when r > k

will give the same results if the firm has no shortage

of funds.

Evaluation of IRR Method

IRR method has following merits:

Time value

Profitability measure

Acceptance rule

Shareholder value

Multiple rates

Mutually exclusive projects

Value additivity

PROFITABILITY INDEX

Profitability index is the ratio of the present value of

cash inflows, at the required rate of return, to the

initial cash outflow of the investment.

The formula for calculating benefit-cost ratio or

profitability index is as follows:

PROFITABILITY INDEX

The initial cash outlay of a project is Rs 100,000 and it can

generate cash inflow of Rs 40,000, Rs 30,000, Rs 50,000

and Rs 20,000 in year 1 through 4. Assume a 10 percent

rate of discount. The PV of cash inflows at 10 percent

discount rate is:

Acceptance Rule

The following are the PI acceptance rules:

Accept the project when PI is greater than one. PI > 1

Reject the project when PI is less than one. PI < 1

May accept the project when PI is equal to one. PI = 1

The project with positive NPV will have PI greater

than one. PI less than means that the project’s NPV

is negative.

Evaluation of PI Method

Time value:It recognises the time value of money.

value maximisation principle. A project with PI greater than

one will have positive NPV and if accepted, it will increase

shareholders’ wealth.

of cash inflows is divided by the initial cash outflow, it is a

relative measure of a project’s profitability.

cash flows and estimate of the discount rate. In practice,

estimation of cash flows and discount rate pose problems.

PAYBACK

Payback is the number of years required to recover the

original cash outlay invested in a project.

If the project generates constant annual cash inflows, the

payback period can be computed by dividing cash outlay by

the annual cash inflow. That is:

Initial Investment C0

Payback =

Annual Cash Inflow C

Example

Assume that a project requires an outlay of Rs

50,000 and yields annual cash inflow of Rs

12,500 for 7 years. The payback period for the

project is:

Rs 50,000

PB 4 years

Rs 12,000

PAYBACK

Unequal cash flows In case of unequal cash inflows, the

payback period can be found out by adding up the cash inflows

until the total is equal to the initial cash outlay.

Suppose that a project requires a cash outlay of Rs 20,000, and

generates cash inflows of Rs 8,000; Rs 7,000; Rs 4,000; and

Rs 3,000 during the next 4 years. What is the project’s

payback?

3 years + 12 × (1,000/3,000) months

3 years + 4 months

Acceptance Rule

The project would be accepted if its payback period

is less than the maximum or standard payback

period set by management.

As a ranking method, it gives highest ranking to the

project, which has the shortest payback period and

lowest ranking to the project with highest payback

period.

Evaluation of Payback

Certain virtues:

Simplicity

Cost effective

Short-term effects

Risk shield

Liquidity

Serious limitations:

Cash flows after payback

Cash flows ignored

Cash flow patterns

Administrative difficulties

Inconsistent with shareholder value

Payback Reciprocal and the Rate of Return

approximation of the internal rate of return if the

following two conditions are satisfied:

1. The life of the project is large or at least twice the

payback period.

2. The project generates equal annual cash inflows.

DISCOUNTED PAYBACK PERIOD

The discounted payback period is the number of periods

taken in recovering the investment outlay on the present

value basis.

The discounted payback period still fails to consider the

cash flows occurring after the payback period.

ACCOUNTING RATE OF RETURN METHOD

The accounting rate of return is the ratio of the average after-

tax profit divided by the average investment. The average

investment would be equal to half of the original investment if

it were depreciated constantly.

or

after taxes by the original cost of the project instead of the

average cost.

Example

A project will cost Rs 40,000. Its stream of

earnings before depreciation, interest and taxes

(EBDIT) during first year through five years is

expected to be Rs 10,000, Rs 12,000, Rs 14,000, Rs

16,000 and Rs 20,000. Assume a 50 per cent tax

rate and depreciation on straight-line basis.

Calculation of Accounting Rate of Return

Acceptance Rule

This method will accept all those projects whose

ARR is higher than the minimum rate established

by the management and reject those projects which

have ARR less than the minimum rate.

it has highest ARR and lowest rank would be

assigned to the project with lowest ARR.

Evaluation of ARR Method

Simplicity

Accounting data

Accounting profitability

Serious shortcomings

Cash flows ignored

Time value ignored

Arbitrary cut-off

Conventional & Non-Conventional Cash Flows

A conventional investment has cash flows the pattern of an

initial cash outlay followed by cash inflows. Conventional

projects have only one change in the sign of cash flows; for

example, the initial outflow followed by inflows, i.e., – + + +.

outflows mingled with cash inflows throughout the life of the

project. Non-conventional investments have more than one

change in the signs of cash flows; for example, – + + + – ++ –

+.

NPV vs. IRR

Conventional Independent Projects:

In case of conventional investments, which are

economically independent of each other, NPV and IRR

methods result in same accept-or-reject decision if the

firm is not constrained for funds in accepting all

profitable projects.

NPV vs. IRR

•Lending and borrowing-type projects:

Project with initial outflow followed by inflows is a

lending type project, and project with initial inflow

followed by outflows is a lending type project, Both are

conventional projects.

Problem of Multiple IRRs

A project may have both

lending and borrowing

features together. IRR

method, when used to

evaluate such non-

conventional investment can

yield multiple internal rates

of return because of more

than one change of signs in

cash flows.

Case of Ranking Mutually Exclusive Projects

Investment projects are said to be mutually exclusive when

only one investment could be accepted and others would

have to be excluded.

Two independent projects may also be mutually exclusive if

a financial constraint is imposed.

The NPV and IRR rules give conflicting ranking to the

projects under the following conditions:

The cash flow pattern of the projects may differ. That is, the cash

flows of one project may increase over time, while those of others

may decrease or vice-versa.

The cash outlays of the projects may differ.

The projects may have different expected lives.

Timing of cash flows

The most commonly found condition for the conflict between the

NPV and IRR methods is the difference in the timing of cash

flows. Let us consider the following two Projects, M and N.

Cont…

rate. This is called Fisher’s intersection.

Incremental approach

It is argued that the IRR method can still be used to choose

between mutually exclusive projects if we adapt it to calculate

rate of return on the incremental cash flows.

the IRR rule. But the series of incremental cash flows may

result in negative and positive cash flows. This would result in

multiple rates of return and ultimately the NPV method will

have to be used.

Scale of investment

Project life span

REINVESTMENT ASSUMPTION

flows generated by the project can be reinvested at

its internal rate of return, whereas the NPV method

is thought to assume that the cash flows are

reinvested at the opportunity cost of capital.

MODIFIED INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (MIRR)

The modified internal rate of return (MIRR) is

the compound average annual rate that is calculated

with a reinvestment rate different than the project’s

IRR.

VARYING OPPORTUNITY COST OF CAPITAL

There is no problem in using NPV method when

the opportunity cost of capital varies over time.

If the opportunity cost of capital varies over time,

the use of the IRR rule creates problems, as there is

not a unique benchmark opportunity cost of capital

to compare with IRR.

NPV VERSUS PI

choice between mutually exclusive projects has to

be made. NPV method should be followed.

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