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Actual output
t (in years)
Three Types of Business Cycle
• Economic theory define three types of
business cycle:
Short-term (Kitchin) cycle: from 2 to 4 years, it
results from the changes in business
inventories.
Medium-term (Jouglar) cycle: from 7 to 11
years, it refers to new business investment.
Long-term (Kondratiev) cycle: from 30 to 50
years, it results from the technological
innovation.
Business Cycle
• A business cycle can be divided into four
major phases:
Recession – the downturn of a business cycle.
This is a period in which real GDP declines for
at least 2 consecutive quarter-years.
Through – the lowest point of real GDP at the
end of a recession.
Business Cycle
P1 E1
E
P
0 Q Q1 Q
Business Cycles as Shifts in AS
P AS1 AS
QP
AD
E1
P1
P
E
0 Q1 Q Q
Business Cycle Theories
• Although the main interpretation of
business cycles looks to changes in AD, we
may classify the different theories into two
categories:
The external theories find the root of the
business cycles in the fluctuations of something
outside the economic system (wars, revolutions,
elections, economic policy, migrations,
discoveries of new lands and resources).
The internal theories look for mechanism
within the economic system itself (self-
generating business cycles).
Business Cycle Theories
• Some of the most important business cycle
theories are:
Neoclassical theories attribute the business
cycle to the expansion and contraction of
money and credit.
Keynesian theories attribute fluctuations to
the economic system itself. They think that the
macro economy is prone to extended business
cycles, with high levels of unemployed
resources for long period of time. They further
hold that the government can stimulate the
economy.
Business Cycle Theories