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WEIGHTED
SHORT-TERM MOVING
FORECASTING AVERAGE
EXPONENTIAL
SMOOTHING
WEEK 1 200
WEEK 2 217
WEEK 3 190
607
WEEK 4 607
?? FORECAST = = 202
3
3-week Moving Average
1 200
AVERAGE
2 217
3 190
4 ? 202
1 200
2 217
MOVING
3 190 AVERAGE
4 244 202
5 ? 217
1 200
2 217
3 190
MOVING
4 244 202 AVERAGE
5 256 217
6 ? 230
1 200
2 217
3 190
4 244 202
MOVING
5 256 217 AVERAGE
6 231 230
7 ? 244
1 200
2 217
3 190
4 244 202
5 256 217
MOVING
6 231 230 AVERAGE
7 190 244
8 ? 226
3-week Moving Average
6 231
MOVING
7 190 AVERAGE
8 231
9 ? 217
6 231
7 190
MOVING
8 231 AVERAGE
9 255 217
10 ? 225
6 231
7 190
8 231
MOVING
9 255 217 AVERAGE
10 256 225
11 ? 247
6 231
7 190
8 231
9 255 217
MOVING
10 256 225 AVERAGE
11 215 247
12 ? 242
6 231
7 190
8 231
9 255 217
10 256 225
MOVING
11 215 247 AVERAGE
12 233 242
13 ? 235
3-week Moving Average
4 244 202
5 256 217
6 231 230
7 190 244
8 231 226
9 255 217
10 256 225
11 215 247
3-week Moving Average
4 244 202
116 42
5 256
302 217
167 39
6 231
274 230
233 1
7 190
162 244
273 -54
8 231
194 226
246 5
9 255
312 217
210 38
10 256
359 225
223 31
11 215 247
288 -32
3-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE
WEEK 2 2X
217
= 217 x 2 = 434
WEEK 3 3X
190
= 190 x 3 = 570
1204
WEEK 4 1204
FORECAST = = 201
?? 6
3-week WEIGHTED Moving Average
1 200 1
2 217 2
3 190 3
4 ? 201
1 200
2 217 1
3 190 2
4 244 3 201
5 ? 222
1 200
2 217
3 190 1
4 244 2 201
5 256 3 222
6 ? 241
1 200
2 217
3 190
4 244 1 201
5 256 2 222
6 231 3 241
7 ? 242
1 200
2 217
3 190
4 244 201
5 256 1 222
6 231 2 241
7 190 3 242
8 ? 215
3-week WEIGHTED Moving Average
6 231 1 241
7 190 2 242
8 231 3 215
9 ? 217
6 231 241
7 190 1 242
8 231 2 215
9 255 3 217
10 ? 236
6 231 241
7 190 242
8 231 1 215
9 255 2 217
10 256 3 236
11 ? 252
6 231 241
7 190 242
8 231 215
9 255 1 217
10 256 2 236
11 215 3 252
12 ? 235
6 231 241
7 190 242
8 231 215
9 255 217
10 256 1 236
11 215 2 252
12 233 3 235
13 ? 231
3-week Moving Average
4 244 201
5 256 222
6 231 241
7 190 242
8 231 215
9 255 217
10 256 236
11 215 252
3-week Moving Average
4 244 201 43
5 256 222 34
6 231 241 -10
7 190 242 -52
8 231 215 16
9 255 217 38
10 256 236 20
11 215 252 -37
Week USAGE WEIGHT 123 3-WEEK
46 213 241 1-2-3 WEIGHTED
47 211 227
MOVING
AVERAGE
48 231 216
FORECAST = 221
49 221
+ a
FORECAST FORECAST ERROR =
Fn+1 = Fn Dn - Fn
= 109
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING a = 0.1
1 200 ?
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING a = 0.1
To start, on week 1
Week Usage Forecast Forecast = Usage
1 200 200
ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
200 + 0.1 x 0
ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
3 190 202 -12
200 + 0.1 x 17
ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
3 190 202 -12
4 244 201 43
202 + 0.1 x -12
ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
3 190 202 -12
4 244 201 43
5 256 205 51
201 + 0.1 x 43
ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
3 190 202 -12
4 244 201 43
5 256 205 51
6 231 210 21
205 + 0.1 x 51
ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
3 190 202 -12
4 244 201 43
5 256 205 51
6 231 210 21
7 190 212 -22
210 + 0.1 x 21
ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
3 190 202 -12
4 244 201 43
5 256 205 51
6 231 210 21
7 190 212 -22
8 231 210 21
212 + 0.1 x -22
ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
1 200 200 0
2 217 200 17
3 190 202 -12
4 244 201 43
5 256 205 51
6 231 210 21
7 190 212 -22
8 231 210 21
9 255 212 43
210 + 0.1 x 21
ALPHA = 0.1
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
48 231 220 11
49 221
ALPHA = 0.4
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
48 231 221 11
49 225
ALPHA = 0.6
Week USAGE FORECAST ERROR
48 231 216 15
49 225
COMPARISON OF FORECASTING MODELS
MODEL FORECAST
3-WEEK Simple Moving Average 215
4-WEEK Simple Moving Average 222
5-WEEK Simple Moving Average 228
1-2-3 Weighted Moving Average 221
1-3-5 Weighted Moving Average 222
Exponential Smoothing, a = 0.1 221
Exponential Smoothing, a = 0.4 221
Exponential Smoothing, a = 0.6 221
The Best Model the lowest error
Mean
Squared
Error
(MSE)
Forecast
Error
Measurement
Mean
Absolute
Deviation
(MAD)
ERROR SQUARED ERROR ABSOLUTE ERROR
43 1,878 43
35 1,190 35
-10 100 10
-52 2,652 52
16 267 16
38 1,419 38
20 393 20
-37 1,332 37
-2 5 2
-30 890 30
1 1 1
-23 544 23
24 568 24
ERROR SQUARED ERROR ABSOLUTE ERROR
43 1,878 43
35 1,190 35
-10 100 10
-52 2,652 52
16 267 16
38 1,419 38
20 393 20
-37 1,332 37
-2 5 2
-30 890 30
1 1 1
-23 544 23
24 568 24
AVERAGE 865 25 MAD
MSE
COMPARISON OF FORECASTING ERRORS
D48 = 231
F48 = 220