Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 30

Summer 2019 US Weather Outlook

Focus: Albuquerque
Overview: US & NM

El Nino Lives?
Weather Bingo
Ocean Analogs I

A warmed up blend of 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 broadly matches 2019.
The profiles of the Eastern Atlantic and East/North Pacific are close.
Ocean Analogs II

The Eastern Pacific ocean – from Alaska to Peru – is shown as very warm in
Analogs and in forecast models.
Background Climate Signal Review
Nino 3.4 (120-170W, 5S-5N) waters remained above El Nino thresholds in
Feb-Apr. The Nino 3.4 SSTs in March and April were among the top 10
warmest for those months. The 5/1 European forecast has weak El Nino
conditions continuing into Summer.

The North Atlantic (AMO) remained fairly cold – back to temperatures


observed in the 1950s – during the early part of 2019.

Sunspots remained very low through April 2019, but were showing
indications of gains on a year over year basis. During Nov-Apr 2018-19,
four of six months had year over year increases in sunspot activity, after 50
straight months of declines.

Waters below the surface of Nino 3.4 remain warm, but not as warm as in
late February or early March when the El Nino that developed last Fall had
a second peak. No imminent collapse of El Nino is likely with those warm
waters around.

The North Pacific (PDO) remained near Neutral in Nov-Apr.


Summer Analogs I
• As a blend, Summer 1966 (x2),1987,
1992, 1993, 2015 had similar
precipitation totals for Nov-Apr in
Albuquerque, with similar Feb-Apr
warmth in Nino 3.4, and similar Nov-
Apr PDO conditions.

• The Atlantic is too cold in this blend,


and will be adjusted slightly.
• Solar activity is too active in this
blend, and will be adjusted slightly.

The blend of these years produces


near average rainfall for the 2019
Monsoon. The blend continues El
Nino conditions through Summer
2019 as well.
Summer Analogs II
• For October-April highs in Albuquerque during 2018-19, a blend of 1934-35,
1976-77, 1986-87, 1996-97 was a strong match.
• For October-April highs in Albuquerque during 2017-18, a blend of 1933-34,
1975-76, 1985-86, 1995-96 was a fairly strong match.

• Summer highs in 1935, 1977, 1987, 1997 as a blend favor a Summer with
near-normal highs from June-September. These four Summers followed an
eight month period of year/year declining highs.

• Summer highs in 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 as a blend favor a
Summer with near-normal highs from June-September.

• Each blend favors an August precipitation peak for the Monsoon in the
Southwest US.
Monsoon Indicators
Years with little precipitation from Nov-Apr, high PDO values from Nov-Apr, and
low solar activity favor “good”/wet Monsoon years.

In 2018, the solar conditions and precipitation were extremely favorable, with the
PDO somewhat favorable for a wet monsoon. Most areas eventually did see
somewhat higher than normal rains under these conditions.

In 2019, solar conditions remain extremely favorable. The PDO is still somewhat
favorable. However, precipitation was wetter than average for November-April,
which disfavors a wet monsoon.

Conceptually, this works out to about an average Monsoon for mid-June to


September – likely with a slow start from abundant snow pack and slow to build
heat.
National Correlation Maps
June signals - Mixed
• The forecast/ongoing spurt of –NAO conditions in May typically favors a warm
SW in June, particularly on the NM/TX border. However, warmth in Nino 3.4 in
Spring, particularly March, favors a cooler June in the Southwest US.
Nino 3.4 SSTs favor Hot SE in July
• Very warm water temperatures in Nino 3.4 during March-April (120-170W,
5S-5N) favor enhanced warmth in the Southeast US the following July at
pretty strong levels, particularly in Florida.
August-September: Warm
• In general, Nino 3.4 warmth in Spring favors a warm August & September
nationally. Warmth in NM/CO, with a wet AZ, and a dry NE/TX are favored.
Solar/AMO Summer Correlations
Solar conditions favor a cool August in the North, a cool September in the
West. The middle of the US is favored warm in June – and no relevant effects
exist in July. A warm AMO favors warmth just about everywhere in Summer.
National Maps
June 2019 Analogs

A hotter version of the map, using correlations shown, is expected nationally.


July 2019 Analogs

The heat in the SE is expected to be a bit broader and more intense than shown.
August 2019 Analogs

Cold shots are expected to pour into the Plains once again during August.
September 2019 Analogs

Warmth is expected to linger in the Western US after a warm August.


Albuquerque Forecast
Heat & Moisture Counting Stats
• Forecast 90F Highs (May-Sept): 62 (-2 v. average)
• Forecast 95F Highs (May-Sept): 19 (-3 v. average)
• Forecast 100F Highs (May-Sept): 1 (-2 v. average)

• Number of Wet Monsoon Days >=0.1”: 12.5 (+1 or +2 v. average)

• Forecast first 90F High: May 28th (2018: May 7th)


• Forecast last 90F High: Sept 14th (2018: September 18th)

• The 2018 Summer featured 15 wet days during the Monsoon – more than
forecast this year. However, it also featured 81 days that hit 90F or above,
21 days that hit 95F or above, and 3 days that hit 100F or above. Fewer hot
highs are expected this year across the board, with much more moisture
during Fall, Winter, and Spring to prevent the ground from heating as easily.
Albuquerque Monthly Stats I

Both approaches favor a wet August. The top approach is used as the baseline.
However, data is trended toward the more New Mexico focused data in method two.
June and July are expected to come in drier than in approach one, with August and
September somewhat wetter.

In low solar years, July & August are rarely as dry/wet as shown in method two.
Albuquerque Monthly Stats II

Highs do not look particularly warm or cold in Albuquerque for June-September.


June highs are warming long-term at a fairly fast clip – so June is forecast warmer.
July is forecast to be slightly warmer than depicted. August is forecast a bit cooler.
This is due to rainfall timing expectations which favor August over July in 2019.
Albuquerque Summer Forecast

A near normal count of 90F, 95F, and 100F days are expected, with average highs.

Highs should be colder than last year, particularly early and late in the Summer. Far
fewer 90F days are expected than last year, 62 – instead of the 81 in 2018 for the
May to September period. Fewer wet days are expected, but those that come will
focus in August. A total of 4-7 wet days are forecast in August.
Summer 2019 Forecast
Summer Overview
• Most areas of the US will see brief hot spells but the anomalous heat will be
worst in the South in July. Florida will be at risk for hurricanes later in the
season.
• Cool air will generally struggle to settle into the Northeast, but will begin to
make much better inroads later in August as cold begins to build in Canada.
• The strength and placement of the various subtropical highs should prevent
efficient wetting rains in New Mexico for much of June and July. However, once
the cold pushes into the Plains, the high keeping the South warm will move to
a near ideal position for efficient and frequent August rains in the Southwest.
The cold/wet Oct-May has resulted in huge snow pack into mid-May which also
interferes with the development of the Monsoon Process.
• Tremendous tropical/subtropical moisture is expected to infiltrate the US in
August.
• The MJO is similar in May to 1976, 1986, 1994, 1996, 2008, 2011, but none of
these years followed an El Nino winter. It is also not clear yet if the MJO wave
will last into Summer, or quiet down and re-emerge later.
June 2019 Forecast Map
July 2019 Forecast Map
August 2019 Forecast Map
September 2019 Forecast Map
Way Too Early Winter Ideas
• Winters after El Nino winters tend to be warm in the Southwest, even if the
winter is itself another El Nino. Winters 1940, 1941, 1969, 1977, 1987, 2015
were all average or warm – all El Ninos following El Ninos).
• Solar activity is bottoming out. How quickly it rebounds should help
determine the type of winter that is possible.
• A cold winter in the East / South is more likely in the event of a high solar El
Nino, or a low solar La Nina – neither looks particularly likely.
• Low solar Neutral years are rare, and often see unusual precipitation and
temperature patterns nationally, with a predominant pattern (warm or cold,
hot or dry) interrupted by a brief, intense moments of the other pattern. A
warm winter with dry/wet cold storms, or a cold winter with warm/dry storms.
• El Nino (50%), Neutral (40%), La Nina (10%) is how I see ENSO odds for
winter at the moment. Low solar (80%), and neutral AMO (45%) and neutral
PDO (40%) conditions are favored too.