Climate Change:

Physical Drivers and

Attribution Studies
Chapter 2. Physical Drivers of Climate Change
Chapter 3. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change

ESYS103/MAE124
APRIL 10 TH , 2019
Review from last
lecture
 Extreme weather and climate
events are increasing
The frequency and intensity of extreme heat and heavy precipitation
events are increasing in most continental regions of the world (very high
confidence).
The frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature events are
virtually certain to increase in the future as global temperature
increases (high confidence). Extreme precipitation events will very likely
continue to increase in frequency and intensity throughout most of the
world (high confidence).
Observed and projected trends for some other types of extreme events,
such as floods, droughts, and severe storms, have more variable
regional characteristics.

NCA4 Climate Science, Chapter 1, Key finding #2

Snow and ice are melting

NCA climate Science, 2017. Ch. 1,

Fig. 1.1
 Sea level is rising

Data from 1880–2014 relative to 1996–2005, NC4 climate sciences, 2017. Chapter 1,
from Fig. 1.1.

Global mean sea level has risen about 8–9 inches (20–23 cm) since 1880, with a rise
rate of approximately 0.5–0.6 inches/decade from 1901 to1990 (about 12–15
mm/decade). The rate is increasing and expected to continue to increase. (NCA4
climate science, 2017)
 Earth’s Energy Budget

Without the greenhouse gases, the Earth’s average Temp would be

about -18 °C. With the natural greenhouse effect, the Earth is a cozy
15°C.
Greenhouse Gases and the
Carbon Cycle
The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide,
methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels
unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
Carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by about
40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel
emissions and secondarily from net land use change
emissions.
The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted
anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification.
A general equation for the surface
temperature (T) of the planet.
4 𝑛+1 𝑆(1−𝛼)
𝑇 =
4𝜎

Where
T = temperature of the earth (K)
The average temperature of the Earth now is about 288K (15°C)
n = layers in the atmosphere, which is a reasonable proxy for greenhouse
gas concentrations
S = Solar constant in W/M2
𝛼 = albedo (a value between 0-1)
𝜎 = Stefan-Boltzmann constant, 5.67 x 10-8 (W/M2)/K4
Figure 2.4 Atmospheric
concentrations of CO2 (top),
CH4 (middle), and N2O
(bottom) over the last
800,000 years (left panels)
and for 1750–2015 (right
panels). Measurements are
shown from ice cores
(symbols with different
colors for different studies)
and for direct atmospheric
measurements (red lines).
(Adapted from IPCC 2007,
Figure SPM.1, © IPCC, used
with permission; data are
from
https://www.epa.gov/clima
te-indicators/climate-
change-indicators-
atmospheric-
concentrations-greenhouse-
gases).
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 and aggregated uncertainties for
the main drivers of climate change.
Radiative Forcing
Natural and anthropogenic substances and processes
that alter the Earth’s energy budget are drivers of
climate change.
The change in energy fluxes caused by changes in
these drivers is called radiative forcing.
Radiative forcing is calculated in watts per square
meter (W/m2)
Positive radiation forcing leads to surface warming,
negative radiative forcing leads to surface cooling.
Climate feedbacks
vs. Radiative forcings
Radiative forcings affect the climate (they can drive
climate change), but are themselves unaffected by
the climate.

Climate Feedbacks are processes that respond to

changes in the Earth’s surface temperature. They do
not drive climate change, but rather the will amplify
(positive feedback) an initial change or dampen
(negative feedback) and initial change.
Clicker questions
THESE ARE THE MAIN POINTS FROM THE
READINGS
Which of the following factors
determines the Earth’s Climate?
A. The amount of incoming solar radiation
B. The concentrations of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere
C. The amount of solar radiation that is
reflected (i.e. the albedo of the planet)
D. The number of meetings of the UN
Framework Convention on Climate change
E. Answers A, B and C.
Human activities which result in
radiative forcing include which of
the following:
A. Changes in greenhouse gas concentration.
B. Changes in aerosols.
C. Changes in the reflectivity of the Earth’s
surface.
D. All of the above.
E. None of the above.
The findings of the this NCA4 climate science
report indicate that human influence on the
climate system is_____________
A. Not able to be determined.
B. Evident from observed warming,
understanding the climate system and
climate models.
C. Still being debated.
D. Not possible on a global scale.
E. None of the above.
Lecture Material
THIS IS MATERIAL FROM THE READING AND
ADDITIONAL SOURCES THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW
The basics of the physical climate
system
Three factors determine Earth’s climate:
1) The amount of
incoming solar
radiation.

2) The albedo of the

planet.

3) How much
greenhouse gas is in
the atmosphere.

Figure: IPCC AR4 WG1 FAQ 1.3

The Greenhouse Gases (well-
mixed - CO2, Methane, Nitrous
Oxide)
 Carbon Dioxide (CO2):
 Emitted primarily through the burning of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and
coal), solid waste, and trees and wood products.
 Changes in land use also play a role. Deforestation and soil degradation add
carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, while forest regrowth takes it out of the
atmosphere.
 Methane (CH4):
 Emitted during the production and transport of oil and natural gas as well as
coal.
 Methane emissions also result from livestock (digestion) and agricultural
practices and from the anaerobic decay of organic waste in municipal solid
waste landfills.
 Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
 Emitted during agricultural and industrial activities
 Emitted during combustion of fossil fuels and solid waste.
 The Greenhouse Gases (well-
mixed cont.) Fluorinated Gases
 Fluorinated Gases (a group of different factory-made chemicals
for similar industrial purposes)
 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs):
 Exclusively human-made compounds for use as coolants, foaming
agents, fire extinguishers, solvents, pesticides and aerosol
propellants.
 Deplete stratospheric ozone.
 Concentrations are currently decreasing because of regulations.
▪ Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
▪ frequently used as substitute for CFCs and are increasing in the
atmosphere
▪ Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
▪ Industrial uses, concentrations are increasing in the atmosphere
▪ Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)
▪ Industrial uses, concentrations are increasing in the atmosphere
The Greenhouse Gases (short-
lived, not well mixed)
Tropospheric O3, H2O
 Tropospheric Ozone (O3):
 Created by chemical reactions from automobile, power plant and other
industrial and commercial source emissions in the presence of sunlight.

 Water Vapor (H2O)

Greenhouse
Gases: Global
Warming
Potential
100-Year GWP Estimates from the IPCC's (2001)
Global warming potentials
(GWPs) or “Not all Gas 2001 IPCC GWP
Greenhouse Gases are Carbon Dioxide 1
Created Equal”
Methane 23
Nitrous Oxide 296
HFC-23 12,000
Compare the abilities of
different greenhouse gases HFC-125 3,400
to trap heat in the HFC-134a 1,300
atmosphere. HFC-143a 4,300

Based on the heat- HFC-152a 120

absorbing ability of each HFC-227ea 3,500
gas relative to that of HFC-236fa 9,400
carbon dioxide (CO2), and
decay rate of each gas (the Perfluoromethane (CF4) 5,700
amount removed from the
atmosphere over a given
number of years) relative Perfluoroethane (C2F6) 11,900
to that of CO2.
Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) 22,200
Detection and attribution of climate change
“It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the
observed warming since the mid-20th century.”