Académique Documents
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Spring 2000-2001
Spring 2000-2001
Lawrence J. Lau, 3
Assumptions
Consumers
Representative consumer with time preference
Infinite lifetime
Existing level of output per capita exceeds the subsistence level of
consumption per capita (otherwise no capacity for savings)
Production
One-sector aggregate production function as a function of capital stock and
labor
Investment
Distribution
Exogenously determined rate of growth of population
CAPITAL ACCUMULATION IS THE LINK BETWEEN THE
PRESENT AND THE FUTURE
Lawrence J. Lau, 4
The Harrod-Domar Model
Production function with fixed coefficients (no substitution
possibilities)
Y = min {aKK, aLL}
Lawrence J. Lau, 5
One-Sector Model with Neoclassical
Production Function
Production function with smooth substitution possibilities
Cobb-Douglas production function
Constant-Elasticity-of-Substitution (C.E.S.) production function
Special case of elasticity of substitution greater than unity
Lawrence J. Lau, 6
The Neoclassical Model of Growth (Solow)
Production Function
One-sector aggregate production function as a function of capital stock and
labor
Y = F(K, L)
Consumers
Representative consumer with time preference
Infinite lifetime
Existing level of output per capita exceeds the subsistence level of
consumption per capita
No income-leisure choice
Consumption and savings behavior
C = (1-s) Y;
S = sY; where s is the savings rate, assumed to be constant
Lawrence J. Lau, 7
The Neoclassical Model of Growth (Solow)
Producers
Competitive maximization of profits
Investment behavior
I=S
Equilibrium in output markets
C+I=Y
Equilibrium in factor markets
Full employment of capital and labor
Population growth
L = L0ent
Capital accumulation
The link between present and future
Lawrence J. Lau, 8
The Neoclassical Model of Growth (Solow)
Capital Accumulation
Lawrence J. Lau, 9
The Assumption of Constant Returns to Scale
Let y Y/L; k K/L. Under constant returns to scale,
F(K, L) = F(K, L)
Lawrence J. Lau, 10
Differential Equation of k
k d K 1 dK K dL
dt L L dt L2 dt
dK
I K S K sY K syL - kL;
dt
dL d nt nt
L 0 e nL 0 e nL; so that
dt dt
k sy k nk sf(k) ( n)k
Lawrence J. Lau, 11
Differential Equation of k:
The Equation of Motion
k sf(k) ( n)k
Given an initial condition on k, say k(0) k 0 ,
the entire future time path of k is determined.
But if k is determined, so is y. Moreover, given
k 0 , y 0 is also known and vice versa. Thus y(t)
can be expressed as a function of y 0 , the initial
value of y.
Lawrence J. Lau, 12
Differential Equation of k
k sf(k) ( n)k 0
implies that K/L is a constant over time, so that
capital grows at the same rate as labor, which is
assumed to be the same as the exogenously given
rate of population growth of n.
Lawrence J. Lau, 13
Existence of Steady-State Growth
The Case of the Constant Savings Rate
2
k
0
k*
-1 dk/dt=sf(k) - (d+n)k
-(d+n)k
sf(k)
s*f(k)
dk/dt=s*f(k)-(d+n)k
-2
Lawrence J. Lau, 14
Existence of Steady-State Growth
The Case of the Constant Savings Rate
2
dk/dt=sf(k) - (d+n)k
-(d+n)k
sf(k)
-(d+n)*k
1
dk/dt=sf(k)-(d+n)*k
k
0
k*
-1
-2
Lawrence J. Lau, 15
The Inada (1964) Conditions
The marginal productivity of capital approaches infinity as
capital approaches zero, holding labor constant
The marginal productivity of capital approaches zero as
capital approaches infinity, holding labor constant
The Inada conditions are sufficient, but not necessary, for
the existence of a steady state
It is possible to replace the second Inada condition by the
following (at the cost of possible non-existence of a steady-
state)
The marginal productivity of capital approaches a constant as
capital approaches infinity, holding labor constant
Lawrence J. Lau, 16
The Role of Strict Monotonicity and Strict
Concavity of the Production Function
Strict monotonicity of F(K, L) implies strict monotonicity of f(k)
Strict concavity of F(K, L) implies strict concavity of f(k)
Twice continuous differentiability of F(K, L) implies twice
continuous differentiability of f(k)
Essentially of K and L implies that f(0) = 0
The Inada conditions imply that f’(k) approaches infinity as k
approaches zero and f’(k) approaches zero as k approaches infinity
f’(k) is therefore a continuously differentiable, positive and strictly
decreasing function of k, taking values within the range infinity
and zero--for sufficiently large k, f(k) approaches a constant
Lawrence J. Lau, 17
The Role of Strict Monotonicity and Strict
Concavity of the Production Function
The function sf(k)-( + n)k considered as a function of k is
monotonically increasing for small positive values of k because of the
Inada condition
The function sf(k)-( + n)k considered as a function of k is
monotonically decreasing for sufficiently large positive values of k
again because of the Inada condition
The function is strictly concave in k so that its slope is always
declining
For sufficiently small values of k, the function is positive; for
sufficiently large values of k, the function is dominated by -( + n)k
and is hence negative
Given strict concavity, which implies continuity, the function must be
equal to zero for some k*, and only for that k*--there is a unique value
of k = k* for which sf(k)-( + n)k = 0
Lawrence J. Lau, 18
Comparative Statics of the Steady State
Comparative statics with respect to s
The effect on the steady-state rate of growth--none
The effect on the steady-state level of k--positive
Hence the effect on the steady-state level of y—positive
Comparative statics with respect to n
The effect on the steady-state rate of growth—positive
The effect on the steady-state level of k—negative
Hence the effect on the steady-state level of y--negative
Comparative statics with respect to
The effect on the steady-state rate of growth--none
The effect on the steady-state level of k--negative
Hence the effect on the steady-state level of y—negative
Lawrence J. Lau, 19
The Case of Purely Labor-Augmenting
(Harrod-Neutral) Technical Progress
Production Function
One-sector aggregate production function as a function of capital
stock and labor
Y = F(K, Let), where is the exogenously given rate of purely
labor-augmenting technical progress
Consumers
C = (1-s) Y;
S = sY; where s is the savings rate, assumed to be constant
Lawrence J. Lau, 20
The Neoclassical Model of Growth (Solow)
Producers
I=S
Equilibrium in output markets
C+I=Y
Equilibrium in factor markets
Full employment of capital and labor
Population growth
L = L0ent
Capital accumulation
Lawrence J. Lau, 21
The Neoclassical Model of Growth (Solow)
Capital Accumulation
Lawrence J. Lau, 22
The Assumption of Constant Returns to Scale
Let y Y/Let; k K/Let, respectively output per unit
“augmented labor” and capital per unit “augmented labor”.
Under constant returns to scale,
Lawrence J. Lau, 23
Differential Equation of k
& d K 1 dK K t dL t
k t
t 2 2 t (e Le )
dt Le Le dt L e dt
dK t t dL
syLe - kLe ; nL; so that
dt dt
k& sy k (n+ )k sf(k) ( n+ )k
Lawrence J. Lau, 24
Differential Equation of k
k sf(k) ( n )k 0
implies that K/Le t , output per unit " augmented labor",
is a constant over time, so that capital grows at the same
rate as augmented labor, which grows at the sum of the
rate of population growth, n, and the rate of labor
augmentation, .
Lawrence J. Lau, 25
Existence of Steady-State Growth
The Case of Purely Labor-Augmenting Technical Progress
2
sf(k)
-(d+n+c)k
sf(k)-(d+n+c)k
1
k
0
-1
-2
Lawrence J. Lau, 26
Steady State in the Case of Purely Labor-
Augmenting Technical Progress
Since K/Let =K/L0e(n+)t is equal to a constant in steady
state, K must also be growing at the same rate of (n+) as
“augmented labor”. By constant returns to scale, the rate
of growth of real output is also (n+), independent of the
value of s
The rate of growth of real output per unit “augmented
labor” is therefore 0, but the rate of growth of real output
per unit (actual, unaugmented) labor is
The capital/“augmented” labor ratio is constant, but the
actual capital/labor ratio grows at the rate
Lawrence J. Lau, 27
The Case of a Non-Constant Savings Rate
Let s g(y) with g’(y) 0
g’(y) approaches zero for y some y*
Consider the function sf(k)-(+n)k = g(f(k))f(k)-(+n)k = f*(k)-
(+n)k
For sufficiently large k (and therefore y), g’(y) = 0, the behavior of
f*(k)-(+n)k is therefore similar to that of sf(k)-(+n)k with s a
constant
For sufficiently small k (and therefore y), if g’(y) approaches a
constant as y approaches zero, then the behavior of f*(k)-(+n)k is
again similar to that of sf(k)-(+n)k with s a constant
f*(k)-(+n)k is therefore positive for small k and negative for large k
and therefore must be equal to 0 for some k*
Lawrence J. Lau, 28
Existence of Steady-State Growth
The Case of a Non-Constant Savings Rate
2
k
0
k*
-1
dk/dt=s(f(k))f(k) - (d+n)k
-(d+n)k
s(f(k))f(k)
-2
Lawrence J. Lau, 29
The Case of a Non-Constant Savings Rate
Let s g(r/p, y), where r/p is the rate of return on capital
g(.) is assumed to be continuously differentiable and weakly monotonically
increasing with respect to r/p and y
r/p = f’(k) under the assumption of competitive profit maximization
Consider the function sf(k)-(+n)k = g(f’(k), f(k))f(k)-(+n)k = f*(k)-
(+n)k; its behavior determines whether a steady state exists
If for some k1, f*(k1) -(+n)k1 0, that is, the savings in the economy exceed
the depreciation and the dilution (due to the growth of the labor force) of
capital; and for some k2, f*(k2) -(+n)k2 0, then a steady state exists and is
stable.
Condition II is generally satisfied because g(.) is bounded by, say, 0.5 from
above and 0 from below, and f(k) is strictly concave, f*(k)-(+n)k is
therefore eventually negative for large k
Lawrence J. Lau, 30
Alternative Sets of Sufficient Conditions
Conditions on f*(k)
There exists k1 and k2, k1 k2,such that
f*(k1) -(+n)k1 0; f*(k2) -(+n)k2 0
Conditions on f*’(k)
lim f*’(k) as k approaches zero is strictly greater than (+n)
lim f*’(k) as k approaches plus infinity is strictly less than (+n)
Lawrence J. Lau, 31
The Independence of the Steady-State Rate of
Growth from the Savings Rate
R. M. Solow (1956)
The importance of Inada’s second condition--the marginal
product of capital approaches zero as the quantity of
capital (relative to labor) approaches infinity
If the marginal product of capital has a lower bound, then
the steady-state rate of growth may depend on the savings
rate (Rebelo (1991))
Lawrence J. Lau, 32
Two-Gap Models
How to overcome short and medium-term constraints on economic
development and growth?
How to jump-start a stagnant economy?
Two-gap models are not intended for long-run or steady-state
analysis
Open economy versus closed economy
Constraints on savings
Net imports can augment domestic savings and enable higher domestic
investment in an economy with low real GNP and/or low savings
Constraints on imports:
Foreign exchange revenue (exports, foreign investment, loans,
foreign aid)
Lawrence J. Lau, 33
A Simple Two-Gap Model
Production Function
One-sector aggregate production function as a function of capital stock and
labor
Y = F(K, L)
Consumers
Consumption and savings behavior (C+S=Y)
C = (1-s) Y;
S = sY; where s is the savings rate, not necessarily constant, more generally,
one can write
S = G(Y), where G(.) is a non-decreasing function of Y
Producers
Investment behavior (X and M are perfect substitutes in this one-good model)
I = S + M -X
Lawrence J. Lau, 34
A Simple Two-Gap Model
Equilibrium in output markets
C + I + X - M= Y
Equilibrium in factor markets
Full employment of capital and labor
Population growth
L = L0ent
Capital accumulation
The link between present and future
Lawrence J. Lau, 35
A Simple Two-Gap Model:
Capital Accumulation
Lawrence J. Lau, 36
A Simple Two-Gap Model:
The Savings and Foreign Exchange Gaps
The savings gap--nonnegativity of net investment (or net investment
per unit labor) I - K = G(Y) + M -X - K 0 (nK)
The net investment required to increase K and Y sufficiently so
that domestic savings can become a sustaining source of domestic
investment and capital accumulation
The foreign-exchange gap M X + FC, where FC = Foreign aid,
foreign investment and foreign loans
Increasing FC allows M to increase, other things being equal, thereby
relieving both constraints
Increasing X also helps, provided M is also increased at the same time
(that is why even export-oriented developing countries run trade
deficits in their early phases of development)
Lawrence J. Lau, 37
Extensions of the Two-Gap Model
Imports can affect an economy more directly and more
significantly--exports and imports are not really perfect
substitutes:
Output may depend on both domestic capital stock and imported
inputs (capital or intermediate goods)
Fixed investment may depend on imported capital and
intermediate inputs
Lawrence J. Lau, 38
Alternative Specifications of Two-Gap Models
Production Function
One-sector aggregate production function as a function of capital stock, labor,
and the quantity of imports (of intermediate inputs)
Y = F(K, L, M)
A heterogeneous capital stock model--the aggregate production function as a
function of domestic and imported capital stocks and labor
Y = F(KD, KM, L)
Drawback: two capital accumulation equations will be needed
Investment function
(Fixed) investment is constrained by both the availability of financial savings
and actual physical imports (of capital equipment)
Lawrence J. Lau, 39
Implications on Export Orientation
These alternative specifications incorporate the recognition that it is
not only net imports, but also gross imports, that matter. In other
words, exports and imports are not perfect substitutes
In order to increase gross imports, exports must be increased (in
order to increase net imports, exports can be decreased)
Moreover, the ability to export makes an economy much more
attractive to foreign investors and lenders because it facilitates
potential repatriation
Lawrence J. Lau, 40
Refinements of One-Sector Models
Heterogeneous capital goods
Human capital
Wage-productivity relations
Endogenous population growth
Overlapping generations
Endogenous technical progress
Non-purely labor-augmenting technical progress and the
existence of a steady state
Two- and multi-sector models
Lawrence J. Lau, 41