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Managers
Course Code: 111401
Academic Session: 2018-19
Instructor: Dr. Sandhya Makkar
Quantitative Methods For Managers:
PRIMARY OBJECTIVE
• Make students familiar with basic statistical
tools and techniques
• Techniques in resolving complex problems
that serve as a valuable guide to decision
makers
Quantitative Methods For Managers:
LEARNING GOALS
• This course will help you develop your skills
and instincts in applying quantitative
methods to formulate, analyze, and solve
management decision-making problems.
• Evaluate and ability to interpret the results of
quantitative analysis.
What you should learn from this
course
• How to collect, store and assess data to aid
decision making
• How to present data visually.
• How to calculate and use key statistics to aid
decision making using Excel/SPSS
• How use data to understand the past and
forecast the future
Aim of the Orientation Classes
Case: DiGiorno Pizza: Introducing a Frozen Pizza to Compete with Carry – Out, Ken
Black (2007), Chapter - 1.
Cases: Pelican Stores, and National Health Care Association, Black, Ken. (2012),
Chapter 3
Readings:
1. Black, Ken. (2012), Chapter 3
2. Naval Bajpai (2012), Chapter 3 & 4
III 5-6 Probability: Concepts of Probability, Experiments and Sample Space, Assigning
probabilities to Experimental Outcomes, Events and their Probabilities, Some basic
Relationships of Probability, Conditional Probability, Baye’s Theorem.
Case: Titan Industries Ltd: Providing Real-Value to Customers, Naval Bajpai (2012),
Chapter 6
Readings:
1. Black, Ken. (2012), Chapter 5 & 6
2. Naval Bajpai (2012), Chapter 6
V 9 Sampling Distributions: Sampling Distribution of , Central Limit Theorem, Sampling
Distribution of , Properties of Point Estimators
Readings:
1. Black, Ken. (2012), Chapter 7
2. Naval Bajpai (2012), Chapter 8
VI 10-11 Interval Estimation: Population mean: known and unknown – Margin of Error
and the Interval Estimate
Readings:
1. Black, Ken. (2012), Chapter 8
VII 12-13 Statistical Inference: Hypothesis testing for Single Populations: Developing Null &
Alternate Hypotheses, Type I and Type II Errors, Population mean: known and
Population mean: unknown – One-Tailed and Two Tailed Test.
X 17-18 Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis: The Coefficient of Correlation, The
Coefficient of Determination, Testing the significance of Correlation Coefficient,
Simple Linear Regression, Determining the Equation of a Regression Line, The
Standard Error of Estimate, Assumptions Underlying Linear Regression
Case: Measuring Stock Market Risk. Chapter 14
Readings:
1. Black, Ken. (2012), Chapter 14
2. Naval Bajpai (2012), Chapter 14
XI 19-20 Presentations
Evaluation
1 INTERNAL ASSESMENT 60 MARKS
a. Mid Term Exam 20 Marks
b. Assignments/Caselets 10 Marks
c. Quiz 15 marks
d. Project Presentation 15 Marks
2 END TERM EXAM 40 MARKS
Readings
Essential Readings
Text Book
• Applied Business Statistics, Black,Ken (ed 7) ,
• “Statistics for Business and Economics (2012)”, Anderson,
Sweeny and Williams, Cengage Learning Publication.
Suggested Readings
• “Business Statistics (2012)”, Naval Bajpai, Pearson
Publication.
• “Basic Statistics for Business and Economics (2006)” Lind,
Marchal, Wathen, McGraw –Hill International Edition.
• “Business Statistics - In Practise (2010)”, Bowerman,
Connell, Murphree
What is Statistics??
Statistics
• Collection : Types of Sources of Data
• Presentation: Graphs
• Analysis: Estimation
• Interpretation: Hypothesis Testing
of Data
• You are on a diet for weight loss, how will you decide which food to buy
• Your company has created a new drug that may cure arthritis. How would you
conduct a test to confirm the drug's effectiveness?
• The latest sales data have just come in, and your boss wants you to prepare a
report for management on places where the company could improve its business.
What should you look for?
• As a manager you would have to analyse the salary of your executives vs the salary
of the executives of your competitor.(satisfaction level/ avg working hours)
• Able to effectively conduct research
Inferential Statistics
Descriptive Statistics
•Probability
• Measure of Central
• Estimation
Tendency
•Hypothesis
• Analyze relationships
•Measures of Dispersion
Data Types
Data
Categorical Numerical
(Qualitative) (Quantitative)
Discrete Continuous
Data Types
• Qualitative (or categorical) data consist of values
that can be separated into different categories
that are distinguihed by some non numeric
characteristic. Like eye colour, hair colour,
favourite actor, defective or non defective,
gender etc
• Quantitative data consist of values representing
counts or measurements. Like height of students,
average salary of employees, no.of working hours
etc.
Quantitative Data (Discrete)
Discrete data. Data values can only be
whole no. Counted data or attribute data.
Examples include:
How many of the products are defective?
How often are the machines repaired?
How many people are absent each day?
Quantitative Data (Continuous)
contd..
observation
Obtained from publihed
sources
Experimentation
Questioning
Primary Data - Examples
• Surveys
• Focus groups
• Questionnaires
• Personal/group interviews
• Experiments and observational study
Secondary Data
• Secondary data – data someone else has
collected
• Obtained from public sources
• You can see library helves for the same
(publihed in books, journals etc.)
• Company’s publihed sales data
ACTIVITY
Descriptive Statistics
•Mean Range
•Mode Variation
Coefficient of
Variation
Describing and summarizing the data
Data can be represented by graphs like
• Bar Graphs
• Histograms
• Pie Charts etc.
These visual displays allow you to quickly
recognize patterns in the distribution of data.
Company : 100 , 121 , 164 , 78 ,Idea Company Sales
Idea 1 00
-10 121
Honda Vodafone 121
Airtel 164
Vodafone
Aircel Airtel Aircel 78
MTNL -10
160
140
120
100
Sales(in Rs. Crores)
80
60
40
20
0
Idea Vodafone Airtel Aircel MTNL
Which country has maximum
consumption of oil and gas?
1400
1200
1000
800
400
200
0
Histogram from Frequency Dist
Energy No. of Use Data Analysis Tool Pack in Add Ins
Consumption countries
100 3
200 9
300 2 Histogram
10
400 1 9
500 1 8
800 0 4 Frequency
3
900 0 2
1000 0 1
1100 0 0
Rating Frequency
Poor 2
Below Average 3
Average 5
Above Average 9
Excellent 1
Total 20
Relative Frequency Distribution
Relative Percent
Rating Frequency Frequency
Poor .10 10
Below Average .15 15
Average .25 25 .10(100) = 10
Above Average .45 45
Excellent .05 5
Total 1.00 100
1/20 = .05
Bar Chart
A bar chart is a graphical device for depicting
qualitative data.
On one axis (usually the horizontal axis), we specify
the labels that are used for each of the classes.
A frequency, relative frequency, or percent frequency
scale can be used for the other axis (usually the
vertical axis).
Using a bar of fixed width drawn above each class
label, we extend the height appropriately.
The bars are separated to emphasize the fact that each
class is a separate category.
Bar Chart
6
5
4
3
2
1
Rating
Poor Below Average Above Excellent
Average Average
Pie Chart
The pie chart is a commonly used graphical device
for presenting relative frequency and percent
frequency distributions for categorical data.
First draw a circle; then use the relative frequencies
to subdivide the circle into sectors that correspond to
the relative frequency for each class.
Since there are 360 degrees in a circle, a class with a
relative frequency of .25 would consume .25(360) = 90
degrees of the circle.
Relative
Angle(degrees)
Rating Frequency
Poor .10 36
Below Average .15 54
Average .25 90 .10(360) = 36
Above Average .45 162
Excellent .05 18
Total 1.00 100
1/20 = .05
Pie Chart
Holiday Inn Quality
Ratings
Excellent
5%
Poor
10%
Below
Average
Above 15%
Average
45%
Average
25%
Example: Holiday Inn
Frequency Distribution
Relative Frequency and
Percent Frequency Distributions
Dot Plot
Histogram
Cumulative Distributions
Ogive
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 56
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Frequency Distribution
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Slide 57
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Frequency Distribution
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Slide 58
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Frequency Distribution
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Slide 59
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Frequency Distribution
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Slide 60
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Frequency Distribution
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Slide 61
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Frequency Distribution
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Slide 64
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Dot Plot
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Slide 65
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Dot Plot
50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Cost (Rs.)
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Slide 66
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Histogram
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Slide 67
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Histogram
10
8
6
4
2
Parts
5059 6069 7079 8089 9099 100-110 Cost (Rs.)
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Slide 68
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Histograms Showing Skewness
Symmetric
• Left tail is the mirror image of the right tail
• Examples: heights and weights of people
.35
.30
Relative Frequency
.25
.20
.15
.10
.05
0
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 69
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Histograms Showing Skewness
.25
.20
.15
.10
.05
0
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 70
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Histograms Showing Skewness
.25
.20
.15
.10
.05
0
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 71
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Histograms Showing Skewness
.25
.20
.15
.10
.05
0
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 72
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Cumulative Distributions
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 73
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Cumulative Distributions
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Slide 74
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Cumulative Distributions
Cumulative Cumulative
Cumulative Relative Percent
Cost (Rs.) Frequency Frequency Frequency
< 59 2 .04 4
< 69 15 .30 30
< 79 31 2 + 13 .62 15/50 62 .30(100)
< 89 38 .76 76
< 99 45 .90 90
< 109 50 1.00 100
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 75
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Ogive
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Slide 76
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Ogive
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Slide 77
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Ogive with Cumulative Percent Frequencies
80
60 (89.5, 76)
40
20
Parts
Cost (Rs.)
50 60 70 80 90 100 110
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 78
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Crosstabulations and Scatter Diagrams
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Slide 79
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Crosstabulation
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Slide 80
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Crosstabulation
Total 30 20 35 15 100
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Slide 81
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Crosstabulation
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Slide 82
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Crosstabulation
Frequency
Example: Gaur Sons Homes distribution
for the
price range
variable
Total 30 20 35 15 100
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Slide 84
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Crosstabulation: Row Percentages
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Slide 85
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Crosstabulation: Column Percentages
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Slide 86
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Scatter Diagram and Trendline
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Slide 87
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Scatter Diagram
A Positive Relationship
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Slide 88
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Scatter Diagram
A Negative Relationship
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Slide 89
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Scatter Diagram
No Apparent Relationship
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Slide 90
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Scatter Diagram
y
35
30
25
Units Sold
20
15
10
5
0 x
0 1 2 3 4
Number of Interceptions
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Slide 92
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Example: Panthers Football Team
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Slide 93
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Scatter Diagram and Trendline
25
Number of
20
15
10
5
0
0 1 2 3 4
Number of Interceptions
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 94
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Tabular and Graphical Methods
Data
Categorical Data Quantitative Data
Median
Mode
Quartiles
Deciles
Percentiles
© 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied
Slide 96
or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Arithmetic Mean
Mean is the central value of the data and
represents the whole data.
Mean = Sum of all the observations
Number of Observation
0
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 More
Frequency
What is the Mean
Histogram
10
0
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 More
Frequency
Median term
2
3. If no. of observations (N) are even, then
th th
N N
term 1 term
Median 2
2
2
Using Excel function: =MEDIAN(Array) Find the
median of the above data
Where is the outlier??
• Mean > median—Outlier is present at the
upper level (take 5% of mean)
• Mean<median– Outlier if present at the lower
level (take 5% of mean)
• Mean is affected in the presence of outlier
but median does not
• By contrast, the median is not biased by
outliers and is often a better value to
represent skewed data.
Where is the Outlier?
• Difference of Mean and Median > 5% percent
of mean => there is presence of outlier
BEST MEASURE is :MEDIAN(Statistician)