DISASTER SCENARIOS

A PRIMER OF KNOWLEDGE THAT

CAN MULTIPLY AND SPILL OVER FOR
THE BENEFIT OF MILLIONS

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for

Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
DISASTER SCENARIOS
FOR SEVERE
WINDSTORMS

HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, AND

CYCLONES
 SEVERE WINDSTORMS:
HURRICANES
• In the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf
of Mexico, and Eastern Pacific
areas cyclonic tropical storms
with well-formed central “eyes”
and with wind speeds above 74
mph are referred to as
HURRICANES.
 SEVERE WINDSTORMS:
TYPHOONS
• The exact same phenomenon
in the Western Pacific Ocean
region is called a TYPHOON.
Physics Of A Typhoon
 SEVERE WINDSTORMS:
CYCLONES

• The exact same phenomenon in

the Indian Ocean region is
called a CYCLONE.
 SEVERE WINDSTORMS:
TYPHOONS OR CYCLONES

• People in South East Asia

occasionally refer to severe
windstorms as either
TYPHOONS or CYCLONES.
 SEVERE WINDSTORMS:
NOR’EASTERS

• People on the USA’s and

Canada’s eastern seaboard
and Northern Europe
occasionally experience
severe windstorms known as
NOR’EASTERS.
DEVELOPING A REALISTIC
DISASTER SCENARIO FOR
A COMMUNITY FACING
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
 A POLICY FRAMEWORK

RISK ASSESSMENT

• VULNERABILITY

• COST
• EXPOSURE
SEVERE
SEVERE
WIND- EXPECTED
EXPECTED POLICY
POLICY
WIND-
STORMS
STORMS • EVENT LOSS
LOSS ADOPTION
ADOPTION
• BENEFIT

•CONSEQUENCES
CONSEQUENCES
POLICY ASSESSMENT
 THE KEYS:
1) KNOW YOUR REGION’S
METEOROLOGICAL
HISTORY,
2) KNOW YOUR
COMMUNITY
 1325 HURRICANE PATHS: 1851-2004

• EACH HURRICANE
HAS PREDICTABLE
PHYSICAL
CHARACTERISTICS
THAT CAN BE USED
TO DEVELOP
DISASTER
SCENARIOS WITHIN
A REALISTIC POLICY
FRAMEWORK.
 HURRICANE BILL’S PATH: AUGUST
12-24, 2009
• THE PATH IS A
STARTING
POINT FOR
ANY DISASTER
SCENARIO FOR
HURRICANES
OR TYPHOONS.
TYPHOON MORAKOT’S PATH:
AUGUST 3-10, 2009

• THE STATE- OF-

PREPAREDNESS
OF COMMUN-
ITIES LOCATED
IN THE LAND-
FALL AREA
DEFINES THE
POSSIBILITY OF
DISASTER.
 FACTORS THAT ENHANCE
DESTRUCTIVENESS
• Very low pressure in the “eye”
(increases the height of storm
surge and likelihood that wind will
lift roofs off buildings and pop out
windows after landfall)
 FACTORS THAT ENHANCE
DESTRUCTIVENESS

• Low vertical wind shear along

the path of the storm
(maintains storm’s
cohesiveness and rotation)
 FACTORS THAT ENHANCE
DESTRUCTIVENESS
• A long path passing through
warm water and a slow rate of
travel (increases the likelihood
that the storm will grow in
strength and become a
RAINMAKER after landfall)
 FACTORS THAT ENHANCE
DESTRUCTIVENESS

• Wind field and rain bands

extending 500 km or more from
the “eye” (increases area of
potential wind damage,
flooding, landslides, and need
for evacuation).
HURRICANE DEAN: PREPARING FOR
EVACUATION, AUGUST 19, 2007
 FACTORS THAT ENHANCE
DESTRUCTIVENESS

• Landfall in rain-saturated areas

having steep slopes (increases
likelihood of landslides
(mudflows))
TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN
 FACTORS THAT ENHANCE
DESTRUCTIVENESS

• Landfall in populated areas that

are unprepared:
• increases the likelihood of inadequate
warning, inadequate evacuation,
inadequate wind engineering (e.g., roof
systems, “safe rooms”), inadequate
safe havens, and inadequate
INSURANCE.
 RISK ASSESSMENT FOR
HURRICANES, TYPHOONS,
AND CYCLONES
 A RISK ASSESSMENT
• A risk assessment involves the
probabilistic integration of:
• The hazard (e.g., severe
windstorms) and their potential
disaster agents (winds, storm
surge, etc) that are directly related
to the location of the community
and the path/size of the storm.
ELEMENTS
ELEMENTS OF
OF A
A SCENARIO
SCENARIO

HAZARDS
HAZARDS EXPOSURE
EXPOSURE

RISK

VULNERABILITY
VULNERABILITY LOCATION
LOCATION
 HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM
(AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE

OR CLOCKWISE DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55
mph) TO CAT 5 (155 mph or greater)
• STORM SURGE
• RAIN BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
• LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS)
• COSTAL EROSION
• POSSIBILILITY OF TORNADOES
 An element’s vulnerability
(fragility) is the result of a
community’s actions or nature’s
actions that change the
destructiveness of the storm
 MANKIND’S CONTRIBUTION
An element’s vulnerability
(fragility) is the result of flaws
that enter during the planning,
siting, design, and construction
of a community’s buildings and
infrastructure.
TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN
TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN
MANKIND’S ACTIONS THAT INCREASE
VULNERABILITY

• Urban development or industrial

development along coastlines prone
to severe windstorms that generate
storm surges, high-velocity wind,
and heavy precipitation.
TYPHOON MORAKOT: CHINA
MANKIND’S ACTIONS THAT INCREASE
VULNERABILITY

• A community locating its

dwellings, schools, hospitals,
etc., and infrastructure in areas
susceptible to storm surge,
flooding, and high winds.
TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN
TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN
TYPHOON MORAKOT: CHINA
 NATURE’S CONTRIBUTIONS THAT
INCREASE VULNERABILITY
• Warm ocean water (creates the low
pressure zone for the “eye” of the storm)
• Warm ocean water along the path of the
storm (keeps the storm energized and
increases the wind field strength)
 NATURES CONTRIBUTIONS THAT
INCREASE VULNERABILITY

• Low vertical wind shear (keeps the

storm organized)
• Stalled weather systems (prolongs
rain fall, especially after landfall).
 CAUSES
CAUSES
OF
OF
DAMAGE
DAMAGE
WIND PENETRATING
BUILDING ENVELOPE

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS

SEVERE
SEVERE STORM SURGE
WINDSTORMS
WINDSTORMS
IRREGULARITIES IN
“DISASTER
“DISASTER ELEVATION AND PLAN
LABORATORIES”
LABORATORIES”

SITING PROBLEMS

FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
 RISK ASSESSMENT
ACCEPTABLE RISK
•SEVERE
WINDSTORMS RISK
•INVENTORY UNACCEPTABLE RISK
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION

SEVERE WINDSTORM
RISK REDUCTION
DATA
DATA BASES
BASES
AND
AND INFORMATION
INFORMATION

Storm Hazards:
-Wind pressure POLICY OPTIONS
Gradient Wind
-Surge
-Rain •PREVENTION/MITIGATION
Wind profile -Flood •PREPAREDNESS
-Waves •EMERGENCY RESPONSE
Ocean -Salt water •RECOVERY and
Ocean
-Missiles RECONSTRUCTION
COMMUNITY
COMMUNITY -Tornadoes
• EDUCATIONAL SURGES
 EMERGING
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
TECHNOLOGIES FOR
FOR
SEVERE
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
WINDSTORMS

•• REAL
REAL TIME
TIME •• METEOROLOGICAL
METEOROLOGICAL
FORECASTS
FORECASTS OFOF PATH
PATH HISTORIES
HISTORIES
AND
AND PHYSICAL
PHYSICAL •• WIND
WIND ENGINEERING
ENGINEERING
EFFECTS
EFFECTS •• STORM
STORM SURGE
SURGE MAPS
MAPS
•• MEASUREMENT
MEASUREMENT •• STORM
TECHNOLOGIES STORM CHASER
CHASER
TECHNOLOGIES (E.G.,
(E.G., PLANES/DRONES
PLANES/DRONES
DOPPLER
DOPPLER RADAR,
RADAR,
WIND •• WARNING
WARNING SYSTEMS
SYSTEMS
WIND SPEEDS;
SPEEDS;
PRESSURE,
PRESSURE, •• RISK
RISK MODELING
MODELING (E.G.,
(E.G.,
INTERNATIONAL
INTERNATIONAL HAZUS,
HAZUS, INSURANCE
INSURANCE
SPACE
SPACE STATION)
STATION) UNDERWRITING)
UNDERWRITING)
 SAVING LIVES

WIND ENGINEERING
“SAFE ROOMS”
EVACUATION
TYPHOON MORAKOT: TAIWAN
 TOWARDS DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION FOR SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
RISK ASSESSMENT

• VULNERABILITY

• COST
• EXPOSURE
SEVERE
SEVERE
WIND EXPECTED
EXPECTED POLICY
POLICY
WIND
STORMS
STORMS • EVENT LOSS
LOSS ADOPTION
ADOPTION
• BENEFIT

•CONSEQUENCES
CONSEQUENCES
POLICY ASSESSMENT