Arly Arning Ystems: J S S R A I R F 17, 2015

RURAL DROPOUT PREVENTION PROJECT Practice in Motion!
EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

JENNY SCALA
SENIOR RESEARCHER
AMERICAN INSTITUTES FOR RESEARCH
FEBRUARY 17, 2015
Practice in Motion!
OBJECTIVES
RURAL DROPOUT PREVENTION PROJECT
• Participants will learn:

o What is an early warning system
o What research says about early indicators of high school
dropout
o What is an early warning intervention and monitoring
system implementation process
Practice in Motion!
EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (EWS)

Early warning systems rely on readily available data

housed at the school to:
• Predict which students are at risk for dropping out of high
school
• Target resources to support off-track students while they are

still in school, before they drop out
• Examine patterns and identify school climate issues

Practice in Motion!
OTHER EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

What are examples of early warning systems that are used in

non-educational settings?
OVERVIEW OF THE EWS RESEARCH

BASE
Practice in Motion!
INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION SCIENCES-

RECOMMENDED DROPOUT PREVENTION
PRACTICES
• Diagnostic Practices (Early Warning System)

o Data system and use
o Screening
• Targeted Interventions
o Adult advocates
o Academic supports
o Social/behavioral supports
• Schoolwide Practices
o Learning environment
o Rigorous and relevant instruction
Dynarski et al.,
2008
Practice in Motion!
KEY EWS INDICATORS

• Engagement
o Attendance/absenteeism Research from
• Course performance several U.S. school
o Grades
districts provides a
o Number of credits earned
strong foundation
o Grade point average
for defining early
• Behavior
warning signs that
o Suspensions
students might drop
o Discipline referrals
out, but local
adaptation is key.
Sources: Allensworth & Easton, 2005; 2012; Balfanz, Herzong, MacIver, 2007; Balfanz, et.al., 2011; Jerald,
2006; Heppen & Therriault; 2008
Early warning indicators are used only for prediction—

they do not cause students to drop out. Rather, they should
be treated as symptoms of the dropout process that is in
progress.
Practice in Motion!
“HIGH-YIELD” INDICATORS: HIGH SCHOOL

ATTENDANCE
Graduation Rates by Freshman Absences
100%
Percentage that Graduated in Four Years
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40+
Days Absent Per Semester
Source: Allensworth & Easton (2007)

Practice in Motion!

COURSE FAILURES
Graduation Rates by Freshman Course Failures

100%
Percentage the Graduated in Four Years
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 More
than 8
Semester Course Failures

Practice in Motion!

GPA
Graduation Rates by Freshman GPA

100%
Percentage the Graduated in Four Years
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5+
Freshman GPA
Practice in Motion!
CHICAGO CONSORTIUM OF SCHOOL RESEARCH’S
“ON-TRACK” HIGH SCHOOL INDICATOR
# of Credits
Number of Accumulated
Semester Freshman Year
Core Course
Failures Less than
5 or more
5
2 or more
Off-track Off-track
courses
0 or 1 courses Off-track On-track
Students are “on-track” if they:
1. Have not failed more than one
semester-long core course, AND
2. Have accumulated enough credits
for promotion to the 10th grade.
Practice in Motion!
“HIGH-YIELD” INDICATORS: ON-TRACK STATUS

Graduation Rates by Freshman On-Track Status

100%
Percentage that Graduated in Four
80%
60%
Years
40%
20%
0%
On-Track Off-Track
Practice in Motion!
MIDDLE GRADES RISK INDICATORS

Sixth grade students demonstrating at least one “flag” had only a

10–20% likelihood of graduating
from high school in 5 years.
Engagement
• 80% or lower attendance rate
Course Performance
• Failing math or English Graduated
Did Not Graduate
Behavior
• Unsatisfactory behavior grade
Source: Balfanz (2009)
Practice in Motion!
COMMON EWS INDICATORS, TIME FRAME, AND

THRESHOLDS
Thresholds
Indicator Time Frame
Middle Grades High School
• First 20 or 30 days Missed 20
Missed 10 percent or
• End of each grading percent or more
Attendance more of instructional
period of instructional
time
• End of year time
Failure in an Failure in one or more
• End of each grading English language courses
Course
period arts or Earned 2.0 or lower
Performance • End of year mathematics GPA
course (on a four-point scale)
• End of each grading
Behavior period Locally validated thresholds
• End of year
End-of-Year EWS exit indicator or locally validated
• End of year
Indicator indicators of risk
Practice in Motion!
DISCUSSION ON YOUR DATA

• What resonates with you regarding this research overview?

• Do you have access to data that could be used as an early
warning system (attendance, course performance, behavior)?
• How are you using this data to support dropout prevention
efforts?
• What ideas do you have for how you would define the behavior
indicator? What threshold might make sense to start with for
behavior?
• What additional questions do you have?
EARLY WARNING INTERVENTION

AND MONITORING SYSTEM
(EWIMS) IMPLEMENTATION
PROCESS
Practice in Motion!
EWIMS SEVEN-STEP IMPLEMENTATION

PROCESS
STEP 1
Establish roles
and
responsibilities
STEP 7
Evaluate and STEP 2
refine the EWIMS Use an EWS Tool
process
STEP 3
STEP 6
Review the EWS
Monitor students
data
STEP 5 STEP 4
Assign and Interpret the
provide EWS data
interventions
Practice in Motion!
HOW DO YOU USE DATA IN YOUR SCHOOL?

• How do you use data to inform decisions in your school? Do

you use a framework?
• Does your process overlap with any early warning indicators
data?
• What are similarities to those frameworks?
• What are some of the differences to those frameworks?
• How do you ensure student supports match student needs?
Practice in Motion!
STEP ONE: ESTABLISH ROLES AND

RESPONSIBILITIES
• EWS teams need to include individuals who have:

o Authority to make decisions
o Knowledge of diverse students
o Expertise to manage and analyze data
• EWS team are required to:

o Meet regularly
o Communicate EWS risk or dropout prevention issues to groups/individuals outside of
the team
o Solicit feedback from stakeholders (leaders, staff, students, parents)
o Monitor students’ progress
Practice in Motion!
STEP TWO: USE AN EWS TOOL

• Important EWS tool (middle grades and high school)

considerations:
o Data must be regularly entered throughout the school year
o At least one individual should be responsible for ensuring the
EWS tool is loaded with the latest data
o EWS Team members must be trained to understand the use of
the indicators within the tool
o Reports must be used and accessible in order to make
decisions about students’ needs
o Student progress in interventions must be monitored
Practice in Motion!
STEP THREE: REVIEW EWS DATA

• EWS indicators are reviewed and monitored to identify students at risk for
dropping out and to understand patterns in student engagement and
academic performance
• Questions to ask about EWS data:
o Student-level patterns: What do your data tell you about individual
students who are at-risk?
o School-level patterns: What do your data tell you about how the school
is doing?
• Are students who were flagged from the beginning remaining “off-track”
through the year?
• Are students who were flagged at one reporting period back “on-track” at
the next?
Practice in Motion!
EXAMPLE 1: STUDENT-LEVEL REPORT

Practice in Motion!
EXAMPLE 2: SCHOOL-LEVEL REPORT

2
Practice in Motion!
WHOLE GROUP DISCUSSION TIME:

KEY QUESTIONS FOR STEPS 1-3
• Step 1: Who needs to be

represented on the EWS STEP 1
Establish roles
and
team and what types of STEP 7
responsibilities
STEP 2
knowledge do team Evaluate and
refine the
Use the EWS
Tool
EWIMS process
members need to have?
• Step 2: How frequently will
the EWS data be STEP 6 STEP 3
Monitor Review the
monitored? students EWS data
• Step 3: What do you need

to have in place so you are STEP 5
Assign and
STEP 4
Interpret the
confident that your data are provide
interventions
EWS data
accurate?
Practice in Motion!
STEP FOUR: INTERPRET EWS DATA

• The EWS team must look BEYOND the indicators

o Indicators are just observable symptoms, not root causes
o Root causes emerge through examining additional data from a
variety of sources beyond the EWS indicators
• Looking at data beyond EWS Indicators can:
o Help identify individual and common needs among groups of
students
o Raise new questions and increase understanding of why students’
fall off-track for graduation
Practice in Motion!
STEP FOUR, CONTINUED

• Understanding characteristics of students at-risk of dropout is

important because:
o Decisions to persist or drop out are affected by multiple
contextual factors - family, school, neighborhood, peers
o Personal and school factors contribute to success or failure
during the freshman year
o EWS indicators, such as attendance and course performance
problems are distinct indicators of risk, but are highly
interrelated, and both can signal disengagement
o Student background characteristics are less important in
explaining failures than behaviors in the middle grades and in
high school
Practice in Motion!
STEP FIVE: ASSIGN AND PROVIDE

INTERVENTIONS
• The EWIMS team matches individual students to specific

interventions after having gathered information about:
o Potential root causes for individual students who are flagged as at
risk
o The available academic and behavioral support and dropout

prevention programs in the school, district, and community
• A tiered approach can be used to match students to

interventions based on their individual needs
Practice in Motion!
TIERED APPROACH TO DROPOUT PREVENTION
Students with
Tier III/Tertiary
disabilities
Specialized individualized systems
Receive services at all

for students with intensive needs
levels, depending on ~5%
need
Tier I/Primary ~15%
Tier II/Secondary
school-wide Supplemental group systems
instruction for for students with at-risk
all Students, including response to primary level
differentiated
instruction
Academic Focus Behavior Focus

~80%
Practice in Motion!

• Step 4: What additional

data sources should be used STEP 1
Establish roles
and
when interpreting EWS STEP 7
responsibilities
STEP 2
data? Evaluate and
refine the
Use the EWS
Tool
EWIMS process
• Step 5: How confident are
you that the interventions
are appropriate for your STEP 6 STEP 3
Monitor Review the
students? students EWS data
• Step 5: Does your school

have tiered interventions? STEP 5
Assign and
STEP 4
Interpret the
provide
EWS data
interventions
Practice in Motion!
STEP SIX: MONITOR STUDENTS AND

INTERVENTIONS
• The EWS team monitors students who are participating in interventions to:
o Make necessary changes by identifying students’ whose needs are not being
met, and/or those students who may no longer be struggling
o Identify new interventions that will to meet students’ needs
o Use data to monitor the effectiveness of interventions offered
• Increase knowledge about the general effectiveness of interventions
• Improve the matching of students to interventions
o Communicate with appropriate stakeholders and solicit their involvement in
the process (e.g., feeder schools, next grade level)
Practice in Motion!
STEP SEVEN: EVALUATE AND REFINE THE

EWIMS PROCESS
• Refine the EWIMS Implementation Process
o During the school year
o At the end of a school year
• Identify short- and long-term needs and solutions
o Student needs
o School climate
o Organizational needs (school and/or district)

Practice in Motion!

• Step 6: How are you using

progress monitoring data STEP 1
Establish roles
and
for EWS indicators? STEP 7
responsibilities
STEP 2
• Step 7: Identify short- and Evaluate and
refine the
EWIMS process
Use the EWS
Tool
long-term successes and

challenges to using an EWS.
STEP 6 STEP 3
Monitor Review the
students EWS data
STEP 5
STEP 4
Assign and
Interpret the
provide
EWS data
interventions
www.earlywarningsystems.org
Practice in Motion!
REFERENCES
Allensworth, E., & Easton, J. (2005). The on-track indicator as a predictor of high school graduation. Chicago, IL:
Consortium on Chicago School Research. Retrieved from
http://ccsr.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/publications/p78.pdf
Allensworth, E., & Easton, J. (2007). What matters for staying on-track and graduating in Chicago public high
schools: A close look at course grades, failures, and attendance in the freshman year. Chicago, IL:
Consortium on Chicago School Research. Retrieved from
http://ccsr.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/publications/07%20What%20Matters%20Final.pdf
Dynarski, M., Clarke, L., Cobb, B., Finn, J., Rumberger, R., & Smink, J. (2008). Dropout prevention (NCEE 2008-
4025). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center
for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance. Retrieved from
http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc/pdf/practice_guides/dp_pg_090308.pdf
Heppen, J., & Therriault, S. (2008). Developing early warning systems to identify potential high school dropouts.
Washington, DC: National High School Center. Retrieved from
http://www.betterhighschools.org/docs/IssueBrief_EarlyWarningSystemsGuide_081408.pdf

Arly Arning Ystems: J S S R A I R F 17, 2015

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RURAL DROPOUT PREVENTION PROJECT Practice in Motion!

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

• Participants will learn:

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (EWS)

Early warning systems rely on readily available data

• Target resources to support off-track students while they are

• Examine patterns and identify school climate issues

OTHER EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

What are examples of early warning systems that are used in

OVERVIEW OF THE EWS RESEARCH

INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION SCIENCES-

• Diagnostic Practices (Early Warning System)

KEY EWS INDICATORS

Early warning indicators are used only for prediction—

“HIGH-YIELD” INDICATORS: HIGH SCHOOL

Graduation Rates by Freshman Absences

Source: Allensworth & Easton (2007)

“HIGH-YIELD” INDICATORS: HIGH SCHOOL

Graduation Rates by Freshman Course Failures

Source: Allensworth & Easton (2007)

“HIGH-YIELD” INDICATORS: HIGH SCHOOL

Graduation Rates by Freshman GPA

“HIGH-YIELD” INDICATORS: ON-TRACK STATUS

Graduation Rates by Freshman On-Track Status

MIDDLE GRADES RISK INDICATORS

Sixth grade students demonstrating at least one “flag” had only a

COMMON EWS INDICATORS, TIME FRAME, AND

DISCUSSION ON YOUR DATA

• What resonates with you regarding this research overview?

EARLY WARNING INTERVENTION

EWIMS SEVEN-STEP IMPLEMENTATION

HOW DO YOU USE DATA IN YOUR SCHOOL?

• How do you use data to inform decisions in your school? Do

STEP ONE: ESTABLISH ROLES AND

• EWS teams need to include individuals who have:

• EWS team are required to:

STEP TWO: USE AN EWS TOOL

• Important EWS tool (middle grades and high school)

STEP THREE: REVIEW EWS DATA

EXAMPLE 1: STUDENT-LEVEL REPORT

EXAMPLE 2: SCHOOL-LEVEL REPORT

WHOLE GROUP DISCUSSION TIME:

• Step 1: Who needs to be

• Step 3: What do you need

STEP FOUR: INTERPRET EWS DATA

• The EWS team must look BEYOND the indicators

STEP FOUR, CONTINUED

• Understanding characteristics of students at-risk of dropout is

STEP FIVE: ASSIGN AND PROVIDE

• The EWIMS team matches individual students to specific

o The available academic and behavioral support and dropout

• A tiered approach can be used to match students to

Receive services at all

Academic Focus Behavior Focus

WHOLE GROUP DISCUSSION TIME:

• Step 4: What additional

• Step 5: Does your school

STEP SIX: MONITOR STUDENTS AND

STEP SEVEN: EVALUATE AND REFINE THE

• Refine the EWIMS Implementation Process

o During the school year

o At the end of a school year