Quantitative Methods

Introduction

Experimental Data

Non-Experimental Data & Inference

Probabilistic versus Deterministic Models

Political Methodology
Introduction

Experimental Data

Experiments are a set of observations performed

to support or falsify a hypothesis. In order to
demonstrate causality, one generally must show
that a phenomenon occurs only in the presence
of a particular causal factor—and that the
phenomenon does not occur in the absence of
that causal factor.
Introduction

Experimental Data

An controlled experiment involves the

comparison of results obtained from an
experimental group to those obtained under the
control group. The control group is exactly like
the experimental group except for the
manipulation of one method.
Introduction

Observational Data

A natural experiment or quasi-experiment does

not involve manipulation or a controlled
environment.
Introduction

Observational Data

In observational studies, data are gathered and

the association between predictors (independent
variables) and the response phenomenon
(dependent variable) are assessed.
Introduction

Observational Data

Descriptive statistics involve summarizing a collection of

data.

In inferential statistics, we are generally using a sample. We

model patterns in the data in such a way to account for
randomness and uncertainty in the observations, and then
draw inferences about the process or population being
studied.
Introduction

In Inferential Statistics…

In inferential statistics, we may be interested in predicting Y

with X, or with the casual effect of X on Y.

We call the population measure (in these examples, either

the mean or the effect of X on Y) the “parameter”, and the
sample measure the “parameter estimate”.
Introduction

What is a model?

A model is a representation or an abstraction of

reality.
Introduction

Deterministic & Probabilistic Models

In deterministic models, if certain conditions are met, the
outcome is certain to happen. There is no “error”.

In probabilistic or stochastic models, if certain conditions are

met, the outcome is more or less likely to happen.

When we are modeling, we are essentially fitting a

deterministic model to actual data.

Click here for a paper by Gelman et al on the two types of

models.
Introduction

A Few Other Items…

As noted, in descriptive statistics, we may be interested

in presenting information about the data—such as
measures of central tendency (i.e., means, etc.)

We may also want to take a sample and estimate the

effect of one variable (or a set of variables) on another.
In this case, we are generally using inferential statistics
(but contemplate the difference between a population
and a sample, and the meaning of “inference”)
Introduction

A Few Other Items…

Explanatory variables (or independent variables, or

“left hand side” or “LHS” variables, or “covariates” )
are often signified by X.

Dependent variables (or “outcome” or “right hand

side” or “RHS” variables) are generally signified by Y.
Yi is a random variable (that is, we don’t know the
value); we know the particular value for lower case y i.