Foreign Policy (FP):

Determinants, Decision making and

analysis
 Outline
• Introduction
• Definition
• Determinants
• Decision making
• Conclusion
 Introduction
• Foreign Policy are the decisions governing
authorities to make realize international goals.
• States make FP decisions designed to cope
with challenges from abroad.
• The processes by which states make FP
choices illuminates as well as the factors that
influence how all the other categories of
transnational actors make FP choices.
 Introduction
• After the TOW, states took control of not only
domestic affairs but also conducting foreign
relations.
• FP means;
the goals that officials heading states seek
abroad,
the values that underlie those goals, and
the means or instruments used to pursue them.
 Introduction
• Geostrategic location, military might,
economic prowess, and system of government
are all variables that affect foreign policy
choices.
• Due to diversity of states as well as their
different locations and positions within the
contemporary global system, it is difficult to
generalize the influence of any one factor or
combination of factors.
 Introduction
• The factors that shape states foreign policies and
the decisions of all other global actors can be
categorized at three basic levels.
• At the global level are those structural features of
the international system such as the prevalence of
civil wars and the extent of trade interdependence.
• At the state level are internal or domestic
influences such as the state’s type of govt, or the
opinions of its citizens.
 Introduction
• At the individual level are the characteristics of
leaders – their personal beliefs, values, and
personality.
• All three levels simultaneously affect
decisions, but their relative weight usually
depends on the issues and circumstances at the
time of decision.
 Definition
• George Modelski, Political Scientist, 1962:
– Foreign policy is the system of activities evolved by
communities for changing behaviur of other states
and for adjusting their own activities to the
international environment.
• Henry A. Kissinger, former U.S. SOS, 1999.
– Much of the anguish of FP results from the need to
establish priorities among competing, sometimes
conflicting, necessities.
 Determinants
i. Geopolitics
ii. Military Capabilities
iii. Economic Conditions
iv. Type of Government
 Determinants – Geopolitics
• One of the most important influences on a
state’s foreign policy behavior is its location
and physical terrain.
• The presence of natural frontiers, for example,
may profoundly guide policymakers’ choices.
• USA policy of isolationism for more than 150
years.
• Great Britain not fully integrated in EU and
now Brexit.
 Determinants – Geopolitics
• Geopolitics is the theoretical postulate that
states foreign policies are determined by their
location, natural resources and physical
environment.
• Russia, China and Pakistan – their foreign
Policies.
• Pakistan’s FP is determined by India and
Afghanistan conflict has also affected
Pakistan.
 Determinants – Military Capabilities
• Internal capabilities shape foreign policy
priorities.
• All states may seek similar goals, their ability
to realize them will vary according to their
military capabilities.
• USA is the sole superpower and also a military
power none can compete with.
• After 9/11, Afghanistan, and in 2003, Iraq
invaded.
 Determinants – Economic Conditions
• The level of economic and industrial
development a state enjoys affects the foreign
policy goals it can enjoy.
• Generally, the more economically developed a
state is, the more likely it is to play an activist
role in the global political economy.
• Rich states have interests that extend far
beyond their borders and typically possess to
pursue and protect them.
 Determinants – Type of Government
• Political system is a third attribute that affect a
states’ international behavior.
• It has two types – democratic and autocratic
• Democratic system is open, public opinion,
interest groups and the mass media are more
visible parts of policy making process.
• There are two things that a democratic people
will always find difficult, to start a war and to
end it.
 Rational Decision Making
• Rational choice is decision making procedures
guided by careful definition of situations,
weighing of goals, consideration of all
alternatives, and selection of the options most
likely to achieve the highest goals.
 Rational Decision Making
• It involve following intellectual steps:
i. Problem Recognition and Definition: External
problem and all information collected.
ii. Goal Selection: What policy makers want to
accomplish
iii. Identification of Alternatives: All available
policy options and cost associated.
iv. Choice: Selection of final solution after cost-
benefit analysis. Best Decision
 Rational Decision Making
• Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger
has observed as under;
• An effective decision making process must
reflect well-thought-out policy choices, that is,
they must answer these questions:
i. What are we trying to achieve, or what are
we trying to prevent?
 Rational Decision Making
ii. What consequences do we expect from this
decision and what steps do we have in mind
for dealing with them?
iii. What is the cost of proposed action?
iv. Are we willing to pay that price, and for what
length of time?
 Rational Decision Making
• During Cuban Missile Crisis, US President JFK,
formed a crisis decision-making group to suggest
a way out.
• Six options were ultimately identified: do
nothing; exert diplomatic pressure; make a secret
approach to the Cuban leader Fidel Castro; launch
a surgical air strike against the missiles; or
blockade Cuba.
• It was adopted after 9/11 and also invading Iraq
 Conclusion
• It is concluded that FP is the attitude of state
towards its external environment.
• It is determined by Geopolitics, military
capabilities, economic development of a
country.
• It is rational choice theory which is being
followed by the decision makers of foreign
policy.