Climate and Fisheries

Kevin D. Friedland and Michael J. Fogarty

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Northeast Fisheries Science Center
Expected Changes in Ocean Dynamics Under
Global Climate Change
-Increased water temperature
-Increased melting of sea ice
-Changes in salinity due to runoff and evaporation
-Changes in major current systems
-Increased stratification
-Changes in position and intensity of frontal zones
-Changes in upwelling intensity
-Changes in turbulence and mixing
-Changes in distribution of marine organisms
-Shifts in productivity of exploited species
 Atmospheric Ocean Biological
Forcing Dynamics Response

Atmospheric Water Primary

Ice Cover
Temperature Temperature Production

Buoyancy-
driven Flow Secondary
Precipitation Production
& Runoff Salinity
Wind-driven Fish
Currents Recruitment
Stratification & Production
& Fronts
Wind Speed Upwelling
& Direction Downwelling Fishery
Yield
Turbulent
Mixing
The North Atlantic
Oscillation affects:

•Temperature Patterns
•Wind Fields
•Precipitation
NAO Affects Cod Recruitment
in the North Atlantic

Brander and Mohn 2004

Plankton and Cod Recruitment

Beaugrand et al 2003
 Maine Lobster Landings and the
North Atlantic Oscillation
30
Landings (Thousand MT)

25

NAO Winter Index

20

15

10

0
1945 1965 1985

Year
 Long-term Sea Surface Temperature

4 4 °N

A re a 1

4 2 °N

A re a 3
4 0 °N

A re a 5
3 8 °N
A re a 7

A re a 6
3 6 °N

7 6 °W 7 4 °W 7 2 °W 7 0 °W 6 8 °W

Friedland and Hare, in review

 11 A H

Trends in Long-term SST

14

10

and Seasonal SST 12

9
Difference
8 14
B I
10
12

10
8

8
C J
14

Summer-winter temperature difference, °C

16

12
14
Mean annual temperature, °C

10
D K
16
14

14 12

10
12
E L 18

16 16

14
14
12

F M 11
22
10

21 9

20 8

G N
9
22

8
21

20
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year
 Gulf of Maine (Area 1) detail

11 A H
14

10

12
9

8
Scaled minima and maxima for all areas

Normalized minima (-) and maxima (-)

-1

-2
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
 Gulf of Maine Cod Landings
and Temperature
20 12
Cod Temp

15
Landings ('000 mt)

Temperature (°C)
10

10

8
5

0 6
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
 Effect of Temperature on
Mean Latitude of Occurrence
Temperature Change Coefficent
Bluefish
Spiny Dogfish
Winter Flounder
Red Hake
Longfin Squid
Silver Hake
Long Horn Sculpin
White Hake
Pollock
American Plaice
Haddock
-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Murawski 1993
Offshore hake – southern deepwater species

Warm conditions
Cold conditions

Response: move
to cooler
conditions

Courtesy Ken Frank, BIO

 Recruitment and NAO Time Series
a

Den Oever recruitment (log)

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

b
4
North Atlantic Oscillation

-2

-4

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year Friedland et al 2007
 Ekman Transport
40 50s 60s

35

30

25

20
40 70s 80s
Latitude (°N)

35

30

25

20
40 90s 00s

35

30

25

20
-70 -65 -60 -55 -50 -65 -60 -55 -50
2 -1
1.0 m sec
Longitude (°W)
Early Spring
Phytoplankton Bloom
Favors Haddock
Recruitment On The
Scotian Shelf

Platt et al. 2003

 Georges Bank Haddock Recruitment and
Spring Bloom Start Date

1.0
T-test Method
CumVar Method
0.8
-1
Log Recruits SSB

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

40 50 60 70 80
Day of year
Friedland et al. in prep
Need Mechanistic Understanding of Climate
Effects on Living Marine Resources

GLOBEC and other Climate

Programs Addressing this
Need
Climate can Affect Basic Productivity Patterns
Effects of an Environmental Shift

Favorable
Environment

Unfavorable
Environment

If Intrinsic rate of
increase is affected
Conclusions
-Decadal-scale variation in ocean climate evident.
-North Atlantic Oscillation dominant feature in this
region.
-Changes in NAO have been linked to changes in
cod recruitment.
-Changes in fish distribution have been linked to
temperature & NAO.
-Migratory species may be impacted by factors
occurring in distant locations.
-Complex interactions between exploitation and
harvesting can be expected.