Geophysics

Data
analysis
Depth
conversion
Simulation

Well
correlation

Well
design Facies
modelling
Property modelling
And Upscaling

PREDICTING PERFORMANCE
TM4112 Karakterisasi & Pemodelan Reservoir
Overview
 Objectives and limitations of future performance
predictions
 Types of future performance predictions
 Data requirements for predicting future
performance
 Transitioning from history to prediction
 Case studies
Objectives of Future Performance
Predictions
 Predict reservoir behavior
 Estimate performance in new reservoirs
 Optimize operating conditions
 Maximize economic gain
Limitations of Future Performance
Predictions
 The major limitation of future performance
predictions is the accuracy of the reservoir model.
 A good history match does not guarantee an
accurate and representative performance
prediction.
Limitations of Future Performance
Predictions
 This might occur if future performance predictions
represent operating scenarios that are dramatically
different from the historical operation of the field.
Examples include
 Converting a depletion drive reservoir to
waterflooding, pressure maintenance or enhanced
recovery
 Converting an old, depleted reservoir to gas storage
Types of Future Performance
Predictions
 Common uses for future performance predictions
 Depletion studies
 Secondary or enhanced recovery studies

 Timing of facilities installation

 Timing of well workovers

 Timing of well conversions

 Infill drilling studies

Other Applications of Performance
Predictions
 Laboratory studies (corefloods, smallscale core
studies, relative permeability studies)
 Parametric studies
 Investigation of vertical flow effects (cross-sectional
models)
 Pilot projects
Data Requirements for Predicting
Future Performance
 Number and timing of new wells
 New well data
 Well, production facility and field operating
constraints
 Economic limits
 Workover plan for existing wells
 Completion plan for new wells
Number and Timing of New Wells -
Based On
 Availability of drilling rigs
 Time required to drill a well
 Budget considerations
 In some cases, new well locations can be selected
automatically by simulator
New Well Data
 Well location in the simulation grid
 Type of well (producer or injector)
 Well constant, denoted WC, (related to PI of well)
New Well Data
 Skin factor must also be considered. Incorrect
assumptions about skin factors for new wells could
lead to unrealistic forecasts.
 Skin factor for new wells can be estimated using
 knowledge of skin factors resulting from drilling and
completion practices in the field of interest, or
 measured skin factors in existing wells (possibly before
and after cleanup or stimulation treatments).
 Another possibility is to perform a sensitivity analysis
using a range of expected skin factors.
Well (Existing and New) and
Facilities Constraint Data
 Minimum and maximum operating pressures at
 Compression facilities
 Separators

 Liquid processing facilities

 Maximum fluid cuts (GOR, WOR) and liquid rates,
which may limit
 Lifting
facilities at wells
 Gathering and processing facilities

 All constraints can apply to wells, production

facilities and/or the entire field operation.
Economic Limits
 Economic limits determine the operating life of a
project or well in a future performance prediction.
 Economic limits are often minimum production rates
for oil and gas, for individual wells or the entire
field.
 Producing gas-oil ratios and water-oil ratios can
also be used.
Economic Limits
 Data requirements for determining economic limits
 Estimate of future pricing for oil and gas
 Fixed operating costs

 Monthly operating costs for wells

 Lifting costs

 Routine maintenance costs

 Workover/repair costs for wells

 Taxes and regulatory factors

 Operating cost and oil and gas price escalation

Economic Limits
 Alternative approach - allow an economics model to
determine when a project is uneconomic.
 Use overall production stream for entire project.
 Input fixed and per well operating cost into economics
model.
 Limit use of economic limits in reservoir simulation.
Economic Limits
 Alternative approach - allow an economics model to
determine when a project is uneconomic.
 Use overall production stream for entire project.
 Input fixed and per well operating cost into economics
model.
 Limit use of economic limits in reservoir simulation
Workover/Completion Plan For
Wells
 Develop a plan for workovers of existing wells
 Skindamage removal
 Hydraulic fracturing

 Mechanical repairs

 Develop a plan for completion of new wells

 Stimulation

 Mechanical configuration
Transitioning From History to Predictions

 Transitioning from history matching to performance

predictions means wells are no longer controlled by
known operating conditions, but rather by an
estimated future operating scenario.
 Unless there is an immediate change in the
operating conditions of a field after history
matching, the well and field production rates and
fluid cuts (overall production performance) should
be similar to recent past history.
Smooth Transitions From History
to Predictions
 The quality or smoothness of the transition is
dependent on the quality of the history match.
 If a smooth transition is not seen, then it might be
necessary to further refine the history match.
 Also a function of how future operating conditions
are specified.
 Methods for a smooth transition from history
matching to future performance:
 If wells were rate constrained at the end of history, then
begin forecasting using the same rate constraints on
wells.
 If the wells were producing at capacity (pressure
constrained) at the end of history, then the wells should
be pressure constrained at the start of performance
predictions.
 As an alternative, use the average well rate or pressure
from the last several days, weeks or months for future
predictions.
Field Production Rates for Base (Fore1b) and New Wells
and Recompletion (Fore2a) Forecast Cases
Water Saturation Maps (0.2 - 1.0 Scale) for Case
Hist33k, Fore1b and Fore2a for Layer 1
Movable Oil Maps for Cases HIST33k, FORE1b
and FORE2a for Layer 1
Summary of Forecast Simulation
Cases
Conclusions
 There are several fault blocks in the VLE-196 field
with significant volumes of bypassed oil.
 Oil recovery can be increased by 34 million STB
(5.4% of the OOIP) by recompleting 5 existing
wells and drilling 8 new wells
Recommendations
 Develop and calibrate an expanded model of the
VLE-196 C-4/C-5 reservoirs, to better model
communication with other reservoirs.
 This should include the B/C-2/C-3 reservoirs, areas
across the VLE-400 fault to the west and block VI to
the north.