Surveying Cell Phone-Only Canadians:

Looking at the Possibilities

Presentation to the
Marketing Research and Intelligence Association
Ottawa Chapter
February 19, 2009
Why the research was conducted

- presence of cell-only households

- higher incidence among younger people, men and single-

person households

- effect on representativeness of RDD samples

- part of wider study on the use the new technologies in

communications
Who conducted the research:

The sampling frame development: ASDE Survey Sampler

The sampling and interviewing: Ekos Research Associates

The analysis: Arcturus Research Solutions

The client: The Public Opinion Research Directorate of Public

Works and Government Services Canada
The current situation

- 14% of households in the US and 5% in Canada are cell-only

- The trend in Canada and especially the US is up

(see citation below)

- cell-only are disproportionately

- one-person unattached
- found in large urban areas
- 18 to 34 yrs
- below-average income
Source: Statistics Canada’s Residential Telephone Survey; and Ambrose, Don; Gray, Derrick; and Halpenny, Gary; Follow-up
on cell-only households – a growing concern for telephone surveys;. VUE, January 2008; pages 16-18
The current situation (continued)

RDD Surveys that exclude cell-only households could encounter

the following:

- increasingly incomplete sampling frame

- non response bias (young adults, single-person households)

If present trends continue, the problem is likely to get worse…

Comparison of Coverage of the Population:
Telephone and the Internet
Telephone: RTSS Survey, Statistics Canada 2006; Internet: New Technologies and Government of Canada Communications, 2007

100% 1
5%
%
21%
80%

60% no coverage
94% cell-only
40% 79% Coverage

20%

0%
Telephone Internet
How the Cell Phone
Only (CPO) sample
was developed
Randa Bell
Vice President
ASDE Survey Sampler
February 19, 2009
• Discussions with clients at 2007 MRIA Conference in
Collingwood

• Following growth closely in US

• 5% of Canadian Households are CPO

(Stats Can December 2006 Report)
Idea comes to life!
 Some numbers

• Cell phones first appeared in Canada around 1983

• Today, upwards of 67% penetration

• 3,000+ exchanges reserved for cell phone only

(Telcordia)
 Some numbers (continued)

• Each exchange can contain up to 10,000 numbers …

potential of 30 million

• Estimate each exchange to be populated at 50 % …

which means 15 million cell phones to be reached in
Canada
 The process

• Huge capacity of ASDE’s IVR System

• Generated numbers at random in cell phone dedicated

exchanges

• Proportionate to population of Canada by province

 The process (continued)

• Programmed and recorded survey with one question

only

• Nature of cell phone we were reaching: CPO household

or in addition to landline

• Simplified wording
 The questionnaire

• 20 seconds, National Study

• Only one question, nothing to sell

• Phone line which is not cell phone = PRESS 1

• Cell phone only household = PRESS 2
• Reimbursement of call = PRESS 3
• Repeat question = PRESS 9
 The results

• Two very useful lists

1. Any cell phone that connected

2. CPO households (most valuable list)

• PWGSC chose sample from each list

 How to incorporate cell only
samples into RDD
• Dual frame sampling method
Portion from cell phones
Portion from RDD

• Augment traditional sample with cell phone numbers (no

overlap)
 How to incorporate cell only samples
into RDD

• Include proportion of CPO households (7%) in sample

• Possibly assign quota on completed interviews vs. starting

sample
 Research Approach

A text message was sent on January 9, 2008 to 2,391

numbers provided by ASDE Survey sampler

English message was: “The Government has hired

EKOS to conduct a study on internet-based
technologies and their use in Canada. You are invited
to participate.”

Average length of interview: 12.8 minutes

Interviews conducted: January 14 to 28, 2008

The Government of Canada New Technologies in
Communications Study: the three modes
Item Cell-only RDD GoC Online

Sample 203 1,718 2,619

Period January Oct/Nov Oct/Nov

2008 2007 2007

Response/ 17% 22% 66%

completion
 Early Termination of Interviews
Question: “To begin, we would like to confirm that you are not currently operating a motorized vehicle or machinery of any
kind such as a car, truck, van, all terrain vehicle, snowmobile, etc…?” n=293

100% 97%

80%

60%

40%

20%
3%
0%
Not currently driving, Currently driving,
operating operating
Terminations owing to Presence of Landline

70 interviews terminated because they have landline in

the household
 Recall of Text Message
Question: “Do you recall receiving a text message on your cell-phone or wireless device from our company in the past five to
seven days notifying you that we would be phoning you to complete an interview?
Please Note: All survey respondents who wish will be sent a gift certificate for $10.00 to either Chapters-Indigo or Tim
Hortons, their choice, as a token of our appreciation.” n=203

100%

80%
59%
60%

40% 33%

20%
7%
1%
0%
Yes, Yes, No DK/NR
definitely vaguely
 Preferred Incentive
Question: “As we mentioned at the beginning of the survey, we would like to send you a $10 gift certificate to either Chapters-
Indigo or Tim Hortons for taking part in this surveys, would you like to receive a
$10 gift certificate?” n=203

100%

80%
63%
60%

40% 28%
20% 10%

0%
Yes, Chapters- Yes, Tim No
Indigo Hortons
 The Call Disposition
Total numbers accepted 2,391

Total out of scope 549

Unresolved 920
In-scope non-responding 611
Language difficulty 10
Unavailable 0
Refusals 598
Break-offs 3
In-scope responding 311
Completes 203
Ineligible 77
Quota filled 31
Response rate 16.9%
 The Cell-Phone Interview Situation
Response to question, “While completing this interview, were you alone or with other people?” (n=203)

100%

80% 68%

60%

40% 29%

20%
3%
0%
Alone Family and Others
friends
 Cell Phone Ownership
Response to question, “Are you the sole owner of this cell phone or is its shared with at least one other person 16 years of
age or older?” (n=203)

100% 95%

80%

60%

40%

20%
5%
0%
Sole owner Not sole owner
 Location of the Cell-Phone Interview
Response to question, “When we contacted you, were at …work or school…at home…outdoors?” (n=203)

80% 75%

60%

40%

20%
10% 10%

0%
Work or school Home Outdoors
 The Sample: by Gender
(n=203)

100%

31%
80% 41% 41%
51%
60%
Women
40% Men
69%
59% 59%
49%
20%

0%
Sample, Sample, RTSS Census
unweight weight
 The Sample: by Age
(n=203)

100%

80%

60% Sample,
unweight
39% 38% Census
40% 31%
28% 26%
20% 15% 16%
6%
0%
16-24 25-34 35-44 55+
 The Sample: by Education
(n=203)

100%

80% 44%
58% 56%
60% Postsecondary
High School
23%
40% <High School
27% 28%
20%
33%
15% 16%
0%
Sample, RTSS Census
unweight
 The Sample: by Household Income (in $000)
(n=203)

100% 6% 7%
7% 8% 16%
80%
33% 31% DK/NA
60% 51% 100K+
40% 40K to 99K
0K to 39K
54% 54%
20% 33%

0%
Sample, RTSS Census
unweight
The Sample: by Number of Persons in Household
(n=203)

100%
13%
24%
80% 38%
28%
60% 29% 3+
34% 2
40% 1
59%
20% 46%
28%
0%
Sample, Cell-only, Census
unweight RTSS (RTSS)
Internet Use: Cell-only versus Landline Respondents, by
Age
Question: “Do you personally use the Internet? This includes using e-mail.”
(cell-only, n=203; landline, n=1718)

100%
88% 93% 90% 90%

80% 74%
70%

60%
Cell-only
40% Landline

20%

0%
16 to 24 25 to 34 35+
Mean Hours per Week on the Internet: Cell-only versus
Landline Respondents
Question: “ln a typical week, how many hours do you spend on the Internet, not including the time you spend sending or
receiving e-mails? Please include all locations, such as home, work, school, etc…”
(cell-only, n=172; landline, n=1,314)

40

20.9
20 18.1 Cell-only
14.1 14 Landline
11.3
8.9

0
16 to 24 25 to 34 35+
 Reading or Contributing to Blogs: Cell-only versus
Landline Respondents
Question: “How frequently, if ever, do you… read or contribute to a blog?”
(cell-only, n=168; landline, n=1203)

100% 7%
15%
80%
42%
36%
60% daily or more
weekly
40% never
49% 51%
20%

0%
Cell-only Landline
Participating in Social Network Sites: Cell-only versus
Landline Respondents
Question: “How frequently, if ever, do you…participate in a social networking site like Facebook or Myspace?”
(cell-only, n=168; landline=1,271)

100%
23%
80% 38%

60% 28% daily or more

31% weekly
40% never
49%
20%
30%

0%
Cell-only Landline
Using Sites like YouTube: Cell-only versus Landline
Respondents
Question: “How frequently, if ever, do you…view, post or download videos from sites like YouTube?”
(cell-only, n=168; landline, n=1340)

100%
18% 11%
80%
46%
60% daily or more
54%
weekly
40% never

20% 43%
28%
0%
Cell-only Landline
 Mean Ratings for Web 2.0 Reliability compared to
Traditional Media
“Thinking about the different Internet-based applications and technologies that we have been talking about, do you think that
the information available on these sources is more or less reliable than information obtained through traditional media, such
as television, radio or print? Please use a 5-point scale where 1 means much less reliable, 5 means much more reliable and
the mid-point 3 means the same level of reliability.”
(cell-only, n=168; landline=1,292; online, n=1,216)

3.5 3.15
2.88
3 2.73

2.5
2
1.5 Mean

1
0.5
0
Online RDD Cell-only
Significant differences between the Cell-Phone and
Landline Samples: Demographics
(significant at the a=.05 level)

Significant Not significant

Gender Employment Status

Age Province
Official Language Urban/Rural Residence
Education
Income
Household Size
Significant differences between the Cell-Phone and
Landline Samples: Attitudes
(significant at the a=.05 level)

Significant Not significant

“Internet more reliable than “Canadians should be

traditional media”
“The Government should
invest in Web 2.0”
allowed to post content on
GoC web sites”
“The Government should post
material on popular web sites”
“If GoC material appears on a
web site, it means that the
Government endorses the
web site”
Significant differences between the Cell-Phone and
Landline Samples: Behaviour
(significant at the a=.05 level)

Significant Not significant

Hours spent on Internet Internet use

Keep informed of
Government news and Use of pod/video webcasts
information
Contribute to blogs
Messages and chat rooms
Contribute to social
networking sites
Download from YouTube
 Preference for Survey Mode: Cell-Only Sample
Question: “If you were invited to take part in a Government of Canada public opinion survey, which method would you prefer:
completing an online survey or taking part in cell-phone interview, or you have no preference?”

1%

Online
41%
Cell
50%
No preference
DK/NA

8%
 Likelihood of Participating in Another Cell-Phone
Survey
Response to question, “How likely are you to agree in the future to participate in a Government of Canada survey over the cell
phone: very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely?”.

60%
51%

40%
33%

20%
12%
4%
0%
Very Somewhat Not very Not at all
Reasons Given for Not Participating in Future Cell-Phone
Survey (number of respondents)
(Among persons who said “not very likely” or “not at all likely”) Response to question, “Why do you say that?”
Number of responses (n=26)

12 11
10
8
8

4 3
2 2
2

0
Too Dislike Cost Prefer DK/NA
busy/time surveys Online
 Costing: the Final Analysis
Total cost: $20,803
Cost per completed interview: $102.48
$9,432
$10,000
$7,741
$8,000

$6,000

$4,000
$1,800 $1,830
$2,000

$0
SMS, letter, Incentives Interviewing Sample
postage Development
 Costing: Hypothetical Survey of 1,000 Adults
Cost per completed interview 50 cell-only: $102.48
Cost per completed interview 950 landline: $24.21

$30,000 $28,124

$25,000 $23,000

$20,000

$15,000

$10,000
$5,124
$5,000

$0
50 cell-only 950 landline 1000 total
 Conclusions

-Surveys of cell-phone only households feasible in

Canada

- Significant differences between cell-only and landline

respondents:
- subject matter
- demographics
- attitudes
- behavioural
 Conclusions (continued)

- Canadians will respond

- ethical/respondent burden

- keep the survey short (12 minutes or less)

- high cost relative to other modes

- keep in mind target population of survey

The complete report is also
available

For a copy of the complete report (English) or

the executive summary (English or French),
see the report A Survey of Cellular-
Telephone-Only Households The New
Technologies “Web 2.0” and Government of
Canada Communications Project at
http://www.porr-rrop.gc.ca/index-e.html