VII SEMESTER

DEPARTMENT OF
ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONICS ENGG
 Introduction
 National and regional planning
 Structure of power system
 Planning tools
 Electricity regulations
 Load forecasting
 Forecasting techniques
 Forecasting modelling
 Spatial load forecasting
 Reactive load forecasting
 Unloading of system
 Power planning
 Planning process
 Power systems
 Strategic planning
 Power development
 Power growth
 Electrical energy is the widely used energy form
◦ Why ?

 Annual per capita consumption : India ? global ?

◦ Constantly rising index
◦ Gives a vague indication of the standard of living

 Different sources of electrical energy : ?

 To meet the ever increasing demand for electricity :

Expansion

Modernisation • Increased capital cost

• financial , economic,
political restraints
maintainance

 Role of power system planning engineer

 Criteria for planning :

 Generation capacity ?
 Optimum size of generating units ?
 Combination of generation types ?
 Environmental impact ?
 Network Interconnections ?
 Economic voltage levels ?
 Impact on finance ?
 Performance of equipments ?
 Energy conservation and load management ?
 Reliability ?

 Non technical considerations

 Careful decision making process :
◦ vision, mission , values, objectives, goal

 Objective and result :

◦ Save time , capital
◦ Optimal use of resources

 Uncertainity about future, multiple criteria,

alternative choices, goals and constraints
 Components :
◦ Learning about the environment
 Identify the goals
 Decision criteria and constraints
 Tech. needs and opportunities

◦ Thinking of available strategic options, costs and risks,

implications
 Investment of resources
 Reliability of outcome

◦ Actions based on analysis , additional learning

 2. implementation

3. Monitoring,
1. planning New plans
comparing different
plans with results

Deviation

4. Corrective
action
 Challenges :
◦ Power system is highly capital intensive
◦ Difficulties in adopting modern practices
◦ Analysis seldom converge

 Constraints :
◦ Environmental and resource constraints

 Objective :
◦ Least cost
◦ efficiency
 First power station in India : ?

 Continuously expanding and evolving system

 Overtime developed constraints make planning tedious

◦ Population and their expectation : reliability
◦ Industrial growth
◦ Technological growth
◦ Limitation in availability of resources

 Tasks of power system planning engineer :

◦ Refurbish the existing G,T and D system : why ? Where ? Fuel ?
Capacity?
◦ Expand the existing system
◦ Technological upgrades
◦ Demand side and supply side management in a highly dynamic ,
unpredictable system
 Planning functions :
Function Time frame Organisational level
Perspective 10-20 yrs Corporate vision
Strategic 5-10 yrs Regional / National
Tactical 1-5 yrs Utility / Corporate
Operational 0-1 yrs Utility
 PERSPECTIVE
 Vision :
◦ Create an efficient industry, providing lowest cost to consumers
◦ Offer choice and quality service to consumers
◦ Motivated team commited to achieving excellence of service.

 Mission :
◦ Defines the parameters of the business
◦ Employees work frame is defined

 Value :
◦ Consumer satisfaction Technical excellence
◦ Service culture Commerical orientation
◦ Environmental responsibilies
 STRATEGY

 A unified, comprehensive and integrated plan to achieve goals

 Requires comprehensive intelligence about :

◦ the nature and extent of the trends of power development
◦ demand

 Strategic planning is a process of determining the :

◦ Long term goals
◦ Coarse of action
◦ Allocation of resources
◦ Ability to influence the outcome : demand can be controlled
 STRATEGY

 Demands can be reduced by :

◦ Changing the tariff structure
◦ Demand billing
◦ Load control by shifting peak load
◦ Encouraging co-generation / captive generation
◦ Promoting conservation of energy
 STRATEGY
• Vision
 Steps in strategic planning : • Mission
Selecting • Values
◦ Identification of problems and
opportunities : SWOT • Long
• Medium
◦ Set objectives Formulating
objectives • Short

◦ Provide possible solutions

• Policies
• Strategies
◦ Choose the best solutions
• Procedures
Supporting
◦ Review the solution plans • Rules
performance • Budgets
 LONG TERM STRATEGY

 Direction for capacity augmentation to meet projected demand

 Environmental issues
 Inter state / regional issues on resources
 Functional and commercial issues in integrated operation
 Fuel transportation
 Energy cost and prices and resource mobilisation
 Management processes
 private participation in G, T and D
 MEDIUM TERM STRATEGY

 Renovation, modernisation , upgradation of aging plants

 Reduction of losses
 Construction of smaller power plants
 Energy conservation and load management
 SHORT TERM STRATEGY

 Improving performance of existing plant capacity, maximizing

utilisation
 Power sharing issues
 New connection issues
 Routing existing connections
 Maintainance against faults
 Power factor maintainance
 Management for materials and forecasting schedules
 PROJECT REPORT
 By power system planning engineer

 Main objective of a report : Give a time frame :

◦ Site clearance
◦ Starting and completing the construction
◦ Details the availability and limits of resources
◦ Sequence of activities
 DETAILED PROJECT REPORT
Preliminary investigation on the proposal

Formulation : examination of various options to meet the desired needs and selection of
one

Detailed feasibility report : Technical , demand , financial, economic analysis

Determination of organisational capacity, environmental guidelines
And appraisal of DFR

(DPR) Detailed project report :cost estimates, project implementation schedule

Project implementation : planning as per report, getting clearances, investment approval,

detailed design and drawings, contracting, execution and monitoring
 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION

 Good management practices

 PERT : overall project management framework

◦ Overall schedule of all activities and estimated duration
◦ Statement on methods to complete all activities
◦ Statement on quality control methods and assurance steps to be
applied
◦ Statement on organization's requirement and impact

 Project manager should have good communications and

decision making skills
 ROLE OF CONSULTANTS

 Consultancy services : feasibility reports, DPR, R &D ,

total project ,financial , manpower management

 Primary role :
◦ Provide solution to clients problems :
 Problem definition, concept, idea, design & management, intermediary
state assessement

◦ Help the client accept and implement the solution

◦ Train and facilitate the clients

 POWER : linked to GDP

 PLANNING : foresee , evaluate and coordinate future

requirements, concentrate resources
years planning activity
5-20 Long term Mission, long term, grid expansion scheme
2-5 Medium term startup of thermal plants, modernisation
1-2 Short term Improvement of T&D systems, small gen. schemes **
15d-1yr Op. planning Maintainance of units and fuel

1-7 days “ Generation scheduling / network scheduling

2-12 hrs “ Economic despatch / power purchase and selling
0- 2 hrs “ Network switching /economic despatch control
300000

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000

0
Generation (2014)
2,34,600 MW

Thermal

nuclear

Hydro

Renewable
sources
 10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
35,000.00

0.00
5,000.00
Maharastra
Gujarat
Madhya Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
Goa
Daman & Diu
Central - Unallocated
Uttar Pradesh
Rajasthan
Haryana
Punjab
Delhi
Himachal Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Jammu & Kashmir
Chandigarh
Central - Unallocated
Tamil Nadu
Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Puducherry
Central - Unallocated
West Bengal
Odisha
DVC
Jharkhand
Bihar
Assam
Meghalaya
Tripura
Sikkim
Arunachal Pradesh
Manipur
Mizoram
Nagaland
Central - Unallocated
Andaman & Nicobar
Lakshadweep
 Plant load factor : Poor

◦ Shortage of coal
◦ Lower system demand
◦ Longer delivery period
◦ Shortage of essential parts
◦ Shortage of funds
◦ Delay in decisions
◦ Failure of equipments
◦ Poor management
 T & D losses : high

◦ Weak systems
◦ Improper load management
◦ Inadequate compensation
◦ Low quality of construction
◦ Inadequate maintainance
◦ Unmetered supply / theft
 NATIONAL
AND REGIONAL
PLANNING

GRIDS

 Northern

 Western

 Eastern

 North-eastern

 Southern
 Reasons for grid division :

◦ Diversity in topography
◦ Day time difference
◦ Annual peak load timing
◦ Resources in different regions
 Merits :

◦ Allows joint planning and operation of facilities

◦ Exchange of economical energy easier
◦ Saves money in construction of systems
◦ Increases reliability
◦ Offers distinct economic and non-coincidental
occurrence of peaks : reduction in total generation
and reserved capacity
 De-merits :

◦ Coordination among utilities wrt tariff and units

◦ Regulatory provisions
 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING

 Least cost planning

 Supply side options :

◦ Better technology
◦ Increasing role of renewables
◦ Increasing availability of generating stations
◦ Efficient operation of regional and national grid
◦ Strengthening of existing T & D systems to reduce loss
and improve voltage profiles
 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING

 Demand side options :

◦ Taking energy conservation methods

◦ Maintaining consumer PF should be made mandatory
◦ Load management /staggering
– improving generating stations load factor
◦ Time of day tariff – peak / night / other time
◦ Captive power generation
◦ Checking pilferage
 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING

 Economical options :

◦ Off – peak electricity sales

◦ Interest rates
◦ equity
 LEAST COST UTILITY PLANNING

 Short comings of traditional planning :

◦ Demand forecasting and investment planning are

considered sequential instead of interdependent
◦ Resource planning is inefficient

◦ Demand forecasting :
 Mere extrapolation of trends
 Does not consider the unmet demand nor scale of growth
 LEAST COST UTILITY PLANNING

 Least cost utility planning :

◦ To provide reliable electrical services at the lowest cost

◦ Apply supply and demand side resource management

 End use efficiency
 Load management
 T & D options
 Plant rehabilitation
 Loss reduction programmes
 Alternative tariff options
 Decentralized power generation-non conventional sources
 Centralized generation – conventional sources
 LEAST COST UTILITY PLANNING

 Least cost utility planning :

◦ Diversity of resources are considered
◦ Public involvement in planning
◦ Cooperation between parties

◦ Merits : Benefits consumers and suppliers

 Affordable acquisition of resources
 Low in cost
 Environmentally benign
 Acceptable to public
 Reduced risk faced by utilities
 LEAST COST UTILITY PLANNING

 Investments on power systems :

◦ Capital cost
◦ Interest on capital
◦ Fuel cost
◦ Operational and maintainance cost – loss dependent
 LEAST COST UTILITY PLANNING
Identify Load Existing
sites forecast resources

Requirement
for new
resources

Rates Supply Demand T&D

Social ,
Define
environme
suitable Simulation
ntal analysis
resource
factors
mixes

regulations
Public
approval

Acquire
Monitor resources investments
 LEAST COST UTILITY PLANNING

 Evaluation :
◦ All options should be assessed in a consistent manner for
a full cycle

◦ Once initial evaluation is complete, environmental ,

economic factors should be studied – avoids loosing out
on options with high impact

◦ Non cost factors should be evaluated – variability of

factors, alternative solutions based on factor variation
 Generating system :
◦ Fuel : hydro, coal, gas
◦ Prime mover : steam, hydraulic turbine, IC engine
◦ Generator : alternator or D.C. machine
◦ Load : light, motor, heat devices

 Control system functions :

◦ To keep speed of machine constant
◦ To keep voltage within limits – adjust fuel , generator excitation
within capability
◦ To check real power – freq / speed control
◦ To check reactive power and voltage – excitation control
 System performance parameters :
◦ Level of power resistances
◦ Voltage inertia moments
◦ Frequency time constants
◦ Wave shape
◦ Phase balance
◦ current

 Types of transmission lines :

◦ Radial system subtransmission and distribution ckts
◦ Loop system
◦ Network system HV transmission lines
 V1 V2 sin 
P 
XL Sub-
V1 V2 Transmission and
distribution
voltages are
increasing with
time
1 pu 1.5pu
Components
installed capacity
increases from
2pu Gen. – Load

3pu
Consumers
demand quality
power

6 pu
 Indian electricity rules (1956) :
 In case of
◦ low / medium voltage  6%
◦ High voltage 6-9%
◦ Extra high voltage 10-12.5%

 Frequency of AC shouldn’t vary by more than 3%

 Harmonic content should limited to 5%

◦ each component should not exceed 3%
 Availability of resources in India and world :
 Coal
 Oil installed capacity, potential
 Other sources
 Major sources --- installed capacities

 Percentage generation share of total electricity

 Percentage consumption share of total electricity
 total generation of world
 Total demand of world
 total generation of india
 Total demand of india
 100
150
200
250

0
50
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
Middle East
Iran
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Africa
Algeria
Egypt
South Africa
Asia & Oceania
Australia
China
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea, South
Malaysia
Pakistan
Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam

ENERGY(Quadrillion Btu)
450.0
460.0
470.0
480.0
490.0
500.0
510.0
520.0
530.0
WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION OVER 2008 - 2011

1
2
World

3
2008-2011
4
 Aim :
◦ To supply power – reliable, minimum cost, flexibility for
expansion

 Criteria and constraints :

◦ Reliability
◦ Environment
◦ Economics
◦ Electricity pricing
◦ Financial constraints
◦ Society impacts
◦ Value of electricity
 Available tools :
◦ Simulation tools : Simulate the behaviour under certain conditions
 Load flow generation reliability
 Short circuit studies generation cost
 Fault studies risk analysis
 Transient studies optimum generation mix
 Harmonic studies dynamic studies
 Production costing studies subsynchronous osc.
 Estimation of envr impact system reliability eval.

◦ Optimization tools : Minimize / maximize an objective function by

choosing adequate values for decision variables
 Optimum power
 Least cost expansion
 Generation expansion planning
 ◦ Scenario techniques :
 Create and study future situations for probable sequence of events
 Case is recorded and database is built
 All possible outcomes are investigated
 Scenario can be optimistic or pessimistic
 Done by state electricity boards, research organisations

 Utilities should prepare integrated resource plans

 The long term plans seek to develop the best mix of demand
and supply option to meet consumer needs for energy
 Govt. of India

Ministry of State / UT
Dept of National Planning Ministry of govt
nonconventional
atomic energy development commission power energy sources
council
Ministry of
power
Planning Central electricity authority
commission
Nuclear State electricity
regulatory NTPC / NHPC / NEEPC inspection
board organisaion

DVC / BBMP
State electricity
Atomic boards
energy Energy management council
commission
State electricity
NPTI / CPRI / CBIP depts

National
power corp PGCIL Private sector
licencees

PFC / REC
Joint ventures /
municipal sector
licensees
 Functions of planning organizations :

◦ Set vision, mission, values statements and policy

◦ Set out practical proposal to implement the above

◦ Recommend preferred mode of development

◦ Communicate the decisions to design, procurement, construction,

operational and finance departments for execution

◦ Criteria related to the following should be brought out and embodied in

various standards, guides and manuals :
 demand forecasts transmission
 investments sub transmission
 generating plant requirement distribution
 various system developments
 G
integrated
ORGANISATION MODELS model T C
(Europe)
To lower electricity cost
To guarantee security and quality of supply D C
To seek private investment
To limit environmental consequences
To contribute to social and political objectives
G

G
Competitatve
Vertically G integrated
integrated model T C
T C
model (Europe)
(INDIA) D C
D C
 G G

G G
Open access Open access
model T C model T C
(USA) (USA)
D C D C

Decentralised G
G
Spot market generator
T C
model model
T C
(UK) (Future) D C
D C

DG C
 Concerns of regulatory bodies :

◦ Price setting, consumer tariff, wheeling charges, long term bulk

power purchase agreements
◦ Quality of service standard and monitoring
◦ Compliance with public service obligations
◦ Dealing with consumer complaints
◦ Ensuring fair and open competition
◦ Monitoring investment
◦ Repair of infrastructure
◦ Third party use of infrastructure

 Objective of regulatory bodies :

◦ Improve efficiency
◦ Uniformity of tariff
◦ Develop and manage integrated energy systems
◦ Competitative power development
 Rules by regulatory bodies :

◦ grid connection
◦ Interstate tariff
◦ Power pooling
◦ Power banking / selling with public or private sector
◦ Competative tariffs from private parties
◦ Pass energy conservation laws
◦ Access to private generators
◦ Technical aspects of operation and despatch of power
 ELECTRICITY ACTS

 Indian Telegraphic Act,1885

◦ Previlages and power of govt to place telegraphic lines / posts
◦ Penalties and provisions regarding electrical lines

 India Electricity Act, 1910 : For laws relating supply and use of electrical energy
◦ Licenses : grant / revocation / amendment / renewal / annual account

◦ Works : laying of lines / notifications / permission / compensation

◦ Supply : licensees permission to enter premises / obligation to supply energy / restriction /

powers of state on licensee / power to control distribution and consumption of energy /
metering / discontinuance

◦ Tranmisson and use of energy by non licensees : sanctions / control of transmission and use

◦ General protective clause : protection of public infrastructure / notice of accidents / prohibition

of connection / power of govt . To interefere

◦ Administration and rules : advisory boards / appointment of electrical inspectors

◦ Criminal offenses and procedure : theft / penalty for wastage by consumers / penalty of
unauthorised supply of energy / penalty for tampering with meters

◦ Supplementary privisions : recovery of sums / protection of acts done in good faith

 ELECTRICITY ACTS

 Indian Electricity rules, 1956

◦ Authorization of electric installations

◦ Inspection of electric installations
◦ Licensing
◦ General safety precautions
◦ General conditions relating to supply and use of energy
◦ Electric supply lines, system and apparatus for low, medium, high
and extra high voltages
◦ Overhead lines
◦ Electric traction
◦ Additional precautions for mines and oil fields
◦ Miscellaneous provisions
 PROJECT CLEARANCES

 Cost estimates :
◦ Limits are set for each capacity group – justify the investment

 Techno-economic clearance by CEA :

◦ Possible economic output
◦ Examination of rivers / dams for hydro projects
◦ Reasonableness of the scheme
◦ Site location for optimum utilization of fuel resources, distance
from load centres, environmental considerations
 PROJECT CLEARANCES
 Publications :
◦ Schemes of operation, tariff plans

 SEB Clearance :
Water availability Pollution clearance
Forest clearance Civil aviation clearance and chimney height
Registration of Rehabilation and settlement of displaced
company families
Land availability Financing / investment approval
Transportation of fuel
 Forest conservation act, 1980 : Guidelines for power lines
◦ Where routing of power lines through the forest areas cannot be avoided,
these should be aligned in such a way that it involves least amount of tree
cutting

◦ As far as possible, the route alignment through forest areas should not
have any line deviation

◦ The maximum width of right of way for the power lines on forest land
should be as follows :

Line voltage(kV) Width of RoW (m) Line voltage(kV) Width of RoW (m)
11 7 132 27
33 15 220 35
66 18 400 52
110 22 800 85
 ◦ Below each conductor, width clearance of 3m would be permitted for
taking the swinging of string equipment. The trees on such strips would
have be felled out would be allowed to regenerate later

◦ Felling, pruning of trees will be done with the permission of local forest
officers whereever necessary.

◦ One outer strip shall be left clear to permit maintainance of the line

◦ In the remaining width, trees will be felled or looped to the extent reqd,
for preventing electrical hazards by maintaining the following : (sag and
swing of the conductors are to be kept in view while working out the
minimum clearance )
Line voltage(kV) Min clearance between Line voltage(kV) Min clearance between
trees and conductors (m) trees and conductors (m)
11 2.6 132 4.0
33 2.8 220 4.6
66 3.4 400 5.5
110 3.7
 Types of loads :

Demand factor % Diversity factor % Load factor %

Domestic 70-100 1.2-1.3 10-15
Commercial 90-100 1.1-1.2 25-30
Industrial (small / 70-80 / 85-90 60-65 /70-80
medium / large )
Agriculture 15-25 1-1.5 90-100
Other loads ( bulk
supplies / street
light / traction /
govt. loads )
 From the load  distribution transformers  sub transmission 
transmission level, pattern changes from random to predictable to
average

 System load is divided into :

◦ Motive load
◦ Heating load
◦ Lighting load
◦ System losses
Few reasons for load growth :

 Increase in domestic consumption, decline in industrial share

 Peak demand is rising due to changing lifestyle

 Increase in electrification of the agricultural sector

 Intensified rural electrification

 Conversion to electric traction

 Wide use of household appliances

 Modification in production processes

 INSTALLED GENERATION CAPACITY

 Should be kept higher than the peak demand

 Energy generation capacity should consider system losses

𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡

Energy reqmt=
1−𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚 𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠

𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

Peak demand (kW) :
𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 ∗𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 ∗𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟∗8760

Generation capacity available for meeting peak demand =

installed capacity – reserve capacity
 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES : DETERMINISTIC AND STATISTICAL

 Extrapolation : for every 1/100th increase in per capita

generation, rate of growth of power generation will be reduced
by half
10 C
G  0.15
U
G: annual percentage growth in power generation
U : Per capita generation
C : constant

 End use method : projection is based on expected changes in

production, traction , irrigation, etc.. Where plans for future
are available
 Trend method : domestic , lighting

Exponential trend using regression analysis

y  3411.3  8555.05e 0.0988x

X : time in years
Y=energy requirement for the year (GWh)
 FORECASTING HORIZON

 For long range system planning

 operation planning and control

 Long term forecasting (2-25 years)

 Medium term forecasting (1-2 years) – operational planning

 Short term forecasting ( weeks) - operational planning

 Very short term forecasting (mins – hours) – op. control

 LONG TERM FORECASTING

Identification of energy and demand for years :

 additional capacity needed – type of units & investment

 Expansion needed – generation and transmission &

investment

L.T forecasting is used for :

 Exploration of fuel / other resources

 Development of manpower

 Reinforcement of G, T, D

 Determining future expansion / fuel requirement

 INFLUENCES ON LONG TERM FORECASTING

 Economic policies
 Developmental plans
 Technological developments
 Growth pattern in commercial, industrial, agricultural load etc
 Population growth
 Electrification plan
 Political
 Environmental

Statistical methods are employed – utilize past data

growth pattern
human judgment
 MEDIUM TERM FORECASTS

Yearly or monthly forecasting to decide the energy and load

 Deciding tariff structure

 Power exchange contracts
 Budgeting and planning fuel / operational requirements
 Maintenance scheduling of G & T
 Scheduling of peak plants / captive plants / multipurpose
plants
 SHORT TERM FORECASTS

 Unit commitment
 Economic despatch
 Maintainance scheduling updates
 Online load flows
 Spinning reserve calculations
 System security analysis
 Load management
 Fuel stocking
 Short term interchange schedules
 SHORT TERM FORECASTS

Utilities use the following sources for immediate forecasting :

Past data
Weather data
TV data

 Peak load conditions for system in a day

 System load at various intervals of time
 Hourly of half hourly energy requirements
 Individual bus load prediction
 Few mins – hours prediction – for economic load despatch
security assessment
 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

 Involves good judgment and sound knowledge of data

manipulations as techniques are getting more complex

 time series analysis : yields trends in cyclic, seasonal, irregular

variation

 Moving average :
◦ arithmetic or weighted average of a no. of points of the series

 Trend projections :
◦ study of the past behaviour and extrapolation of the future behaviour

◦ A trend line is fitted into the mathematical equation and it is projected

into the future using the equation
 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

 Trend projections : Two general approaches :

◦ Regression analysis :
 Fitting of continuous math functions through actual data to achieve least overall
error
◦ Fitting of a sequence on discontinuous lines / curves
 Prevalent in short term forecasting
 Components obtained from a load curve :
 Basic trend
 Seasonal variation
 Cyclic variation ( maybe for periods longer than 2 -3 years) long term mean = 0
 Random variations : day – to- day or weather for periodic curves

 Forecasting is done for either continuous variation or certain

points e.g for the system peak demands only
 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

 Trend projections : Types

◦ Linear trend :
 past trend where increase in consumption on yearly basis is constant
 Arithmetic graph will be straight
 Math expression : ct  a  bt ct : consumption in year t
a: consumption in year 0
b: annual increase in consumption
t: no. of years = T-1+N
T : no. of years for which forecast is needed
◦ Exponential trend :
 Past trend drawn on log graph for give straight line future projection
 Math expression : C  C (1  m)t m : mean annual rate of growth
t o
 On changing log to base 10 :

log Ct  a  bt
a  log Co ; b  log( 1  m)
 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

 Trend projections : Types

◦ Analysis of time series :
 Typical power system load curves :
 T : long term trend
Y  T *C * S * I
C : cyclical trend
OR
S : seasonal trend
Y T C  S  I I : irregularities–temperature effects

 Procedure for time series analysis :

 Collect all data
 Draw a graph of time series for realisation of cycles
 Construct long term trends
 Obtain seasonal index if seasonal variations exist – deseasonalise the data
 Adjust the data for trend - data will contain cyclic and random fluctuations
 Forecasts and ranges of errors can be made using adjusted data
 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

 Trend projections : Types

◦ Correlation of demand with temperature
 Domestic and commercial loads vary with heat and cold
 Removal of the correlation leaves only cyclic and random effects
 Correlation suffers from lack of data / pattern

◦ Regression model :
 Relates load to economic, competitive or weather variables and estimates an
equation
 Relations are analyzed statistically / on rational grounds
 History to establish relationships is essential
 Requires judgment along with statistical analysis
 Autocorrelation is a problem
 An understanding of a condition and its cure is essential for valid modelling
 Judgment of future of cyclic components of series are used for short and long
term plans
 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

 Trend projections : Types

◦ Econometric model :
 a system of interdependent regression equations to describe energy sales
 The equations predict the turning points more accurately

◦ Strategic forecasting :
 Involves examination of factors and issues affecting future growth
 Recognizes impact of policies on future loads
 Requires details of consumer operations, their current and potential demand,
their competitiveness, options wrt production processes, switching alternatives,
energy conservation technologies
 Econometric approach with technology details in process models are studied
 Strategic forecasting should forecast requirements and help shape demand
 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES : CEA PRACTICE
DOMESTIC, COMMERCIAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
Consumption in these sectors are estimated on basis of no. of
consumers and their specific consumption

 No. of consumers :
◦ past growth rate or each state / area
◦ growth rate is adopted in the forecast after long term time series analysis
of growth in no. of consumers
◦ Where past performance is poor, allowance is made in growth rate for
household electrification as per growth plans
◦ City planning and priorities are kept in view to determine electricification
plans
 Consumption per consumer:
◦ Considering past trends
◦ Considering anticipated improvements in standard of living
◦ Gradual increase in consumption is noticed in all states / UTs

 Public lighting an public water works :

◦ Based on estimated connected load (kW) and average consumption per kW
of connected load (kWh/ kW)
◦ Projection in loads are made on basis of consumption trends, development
policies
 Irrigation and agriculture pump sets
◦ Model for forecasting consumption :
 Y=N*S*H Y : electricity consumption in kWh
N : No. of pump sets in the middle of the year
S : average capacity of pump sets
H : Average consumption per year per kW of load
◦ Energisation of pump sets are decided by state policies depending on
available resources and ground water potential
 Average capacity of pump sets is obtained by considering mid year figures and
past no. of pump sets
 Projection of pump sets is determined by present and future availability of
ground water
◦ Present study indicates rise in consumption due to extensive irrigation
 Industrial model :
◦ Categories for analysis :
 LT Industries based on past trends and future scope
 HT industries with demand < 1 MW
 HT industries with demand > 1 MW - separately for each unit basic on info
provided by the units
◦ Demand to be met by captive power plants is deducted
 Based on past level of generation
 Augmentation of capacity in future

 Railway traction :
◦ Depends on electrification programme by the railway authorities
◦ Depends on info provided by the railway board

 Bulk supply to non industrial consumers :

◦ Used in research establishments etc,
◦ Based on past trends
ENERGY USAGE
 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES :

Modelling and simulation

 Domestic sector
◦ As income increase , luxury products usage increases
◦ Log Y = a + b log X Y : Energy consumption
a,b : constants
X : Private final consumption expenditure

 Commercial and other sectors

◦ Industrial development causes increases in consumption
◦ Migration of population
◦ Public lighting and water systems
◦ Log Y = a + b log X Y : energy consumption
x: number of urban households
 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES :

Econometrics

Factors which influence system load growth :

Business and economic cycle
Growth in GNP
Growth in population

Relation between energy demand and population and GNP : linear model
ln Y = 20.74 + 2.88 ln X1 + 1.36 ln x2
 Y : energy demand in GWh
 X1 : population in millions
 X2 : GNP
 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES :

Single factor modelling

 Each sector considered individually gives different variations

 One factor is considered for all sectors : population (say)
or temperature
 Domestic
◦ Per capita consumption
◦ Persons per area
CT  K  0.71log GDP

 Industrial
◦ Growth is indicated by production, growth in electricity sales
◦ Growth in number of workers employed and consumption of each
 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES :

Single factor modelling

 Agriculture
◦ Depending on agricultural output
◦ Depending in installation of irrigation pumps and consumption of
electricity per pump

 Other sectors
◦ Forecast for street lighting, water works, railways etc depends on time
series study and plans
 FORECAST MODELLING

Factors influencing prediction of load :

◦ Time dependent factors

 Regular : Time of day, week, month, year
 Irregular : holidays – public participation, impact on industrial
 activity

◦ Weather dependent factors

 Affects domestic lighting, public lighting, commercial loads]
 Each weather pattern has different influence on load curve
 Temperature , cloud cover, visibility and precipitation
 Load and temperature share non linear relation

◦ Random factors : Other factors

factory strikes, school holidays etc Effect of DGs
Effects of tariff plans
 SPATIAL LOAD FORECASTING

◦ For distribution feeder load forecasting :

 Each feeder has unique mix of commercial and residential loads
 Growth factor varies from feeder to feeder
 Increase in specific consumption : reinforcement of existing feeders , inner cities
 Increase in no. of connections : expansion of system , determined by planners
 Data is collected for each tariff group
 Large consumers are excluded
 Feeder metering is done – gives info on diversity load factor for consumer groups
 Demand metering – gives information on losses
 Requires proper judgment and local knowledge

◦ For sub transmission system load forecasting :

 Coincident demand of distribution feeders and consumers supplied at sub transmission
voltage is considered
 All consumers at this level have maximum demand metering
 Data determines present coincidence factors from the substations
 Future maximum coincident demand is then determined
 PEAK LOAD FORECASTING

 For major categories i.e. domestic, commercial, industrial, agricultural

 Total energy curve = trends + fixed consumption + minor consumptions

i.e.( lighting, losses and demand / supply management measures)

 Forecast of load factor is needed to arrive at estimate of system peak

 Load factor has a correlation between load factor and economic activity
(GDP): non linear relation, an important indicator

 Annual system peak = annual energy forecast / 8760*LF

 Electricity sales and consumption vary with the GDP , therefore studying the
GDP, energy forecasts can be made
 REACTIVE LOAD FORECASTING

◦ Difficult to predict as they include loads + lines + VAr devices

◦ History trends cannot be used

◦ Active load forecast + PF prediction gives approx. reactive load

forecasting

◦ Works fairly for short time forecasting

◦ Reactive load forecasting is used for security analysis, voltage/ reactive

power scheduling

◦ if necessary , network modifications should be made.

 UNLOADING OF SYSTEM

◦ Involves supply side and demand side management

Demand side management

◦ Demand for electricity by consumers is influenced

◦ Ensures effective utilisation of facilities
◦ Augment the range of energy choices available to utility managers
◦ Load may increase, decrease or shift

◦ DSM techniques
 Load management : clipping, valley filling, load filling,
Load shedding, load control, time of day tariff,
seasonal rates, flexible load shape ( linking reliability to
incentives)
 Strategic conservation : energy audits, cogeneration
 Load growth : promotional rates, rural electrification
 UNLOADING OF SYSTEM

◦ Involves supply side and demand side management

Supply side management

◦ Power system load factor is altered :

◦ Differential pricing / tariff : needs assessment of load shifting capabilities,
eventually consumer controls load
◦ Administrative methods
◦ Power and energy quota restrictions
◦ Peak period restrictions
◦ Staggering of working hours
◦ Staggering of holidays