PROBABILITY AND

STATISTICS

Ms. Mary Angelie O. Montemayor

PROBABILITY
 Basic Concepts
 Probability Distribution
 Binomial Distribution
 Poisson Distribution
 Normal Distribution
QUIZ 1
1. A company makes electronic companies
for TV’s. 95% pass the final inspection (and
5% fail and need to be fixed).
120 components are inspected in one day.
What is the variance of the number that
pass the inspection in one day?
2. A fair die is thrown four times.
Use the binomial probability formula to
calculate the probability of exactly two 5’s.
QUIZ 1
3. Toss a coin for 12 times. What is the
probability of getting exactly 7 heads?
4. A fair coin tossed five times.
Use the binomial probability formula to
calculate the probability of at least four
heads.
5. A coin is tossed 10 times. What is the
probability of getting exactly 6 heads?
ANSWER:
1. 5.7
2. 25/216
3. 0.03125
4. 3/16
5. 0.205 = 0.21 = 21%
ASSIGNMENT 1
1. Hospital records show that of patients
suffering from a certain disease, 75% die of
it. What is the probability that of 6
randomly selected patients, 4 will recover?
2. A (blindfolded) marksman finds that on
the average he hits the target 4 times out
of 5. If he fires 4 shots, what is the
probability of
(a) more than 2 hits
(b) at least 3 misses
ANSWER:
1. 0.0329595
2. (a) 0.8192, (b) 0.0272
PROBABILITY
 Basic Concepts
 Probability Distribution
 Binomial Distribution
 Poisson Distribution
 Normal Distribution
POISSON
DISTRIBUTION
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
- was developed by French mathematician
Simeon Denis Poisson in 1837

- a discrete frequency distribution that gives

the probability of a number of independent
events occurring in a fixed time

- also applies to disjoint regions of space

The Poisson random variable satisfies
the following conditions:

1. The number of successes in two disjoint

time intervals is independent.

2. The probability of a success during a small

time interval is proportional to the entire
length of the time interval.
APPLICATIONS
1. the number of deaths by horse kicking in
the Prussian army (first application)
2. Birth defects and genetic mutations
3. Car accidents
4. Traffic flow and ideal gap distance
5. Number of typing errors on a page
6. Failure of a machine in one month
POISSON DISTRIBUTION

where:
X = representing the number of successes
occurring in a given time interval or a
specified region of space
x = 0, 1, 2, 3…
e = 2.71828 (use your calculator)
µ = mean number of successes in the given
time interval or region of space
MEAN AND VARIANCE
If µ is the average number of successes
occurring in a given time interval or region
in the Poisson distribution, then the mean
and the variance of the Poisson
distribution are both equal to µ.

NOTE:
In a Poisson Distribution, only one
parameter, µ is needed to determine the
probability of an event.
EXAMPLE
1. If electricity power failures occur
according to a Poisson Distribution with an
average of 3 failures every twenty weeks,
calculate the probability that there will not
be more than one failure during a
particular week.
The average number of failures per week is
µ = 3/20 = 0.15

“Not more than one failure” means we need

to include the probabilities for “0 failures”
plus “1 failure”.
EXAMPLE
2. A life insurance salesman sells on the
average 3 life insurance policies per week.
Use Poisson’s law to calculate the
probability that in a given week he will sell
(a) some policies
(b) 2 or more policies but less than 5
policies
(c) Assuming that there are 5 working
days per week, what is the probability that
in a given day he will sell one policy?
µ=3
(a) “Some policies” means “1 or more
policies”. We can work this out by finding 1
minus the “zero policies” probability:
(b) The probability of selling 2 or more, but
less than 5 policies is:

(c) Average number of policies sold per day:

3/5 = 0.6
So on a given day,
EXAMPLE
3. Twenty sheets of aluminum alloy were
examined for surface flaws. The frequency of
the number of sheets with a given number of
flaws per sheet was as follows:
Number of flaws Frequency What is the
0 4 probability of
1 3 finding a sheet
2 5 chosen at
3 2 random which
4 4 contains 3 or
5 1 more surface
6 1
flaws?
The total number of flaws is given by:
(0 x 4) + (1 x 3) + (2 x 5) + (3 x 2) + (4 x 4) +
(5 x 1) + (6 x 1) = 46

So the average number of flaws for the 20

sheets is given by:
µ = 46/20 = 2.3
The required probability is:
Probability
= 0.404
SEATWORK 2
Vehicles pass through a junction on a busy
road at an average rate of 300 per hour.
1. Find the probability that none passes in a
given minute.
2. What is the expected number passing in
two minutes?
3. Find the probability that this expected
number actually pass through in a given
two-minute period.
The average of cars per minute is:
µ = 300/60 = 5

(a)

(b) Expected number each 2 minutes =

E(X) = 5 x 2 = 10
(c) Now, with µ = 10, we have:
PROBABILITY
 Basic Concepts
 Probability Distribution
 Binomial Distribution
 Poisson Distribution
 Normal Distribution
NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
- is a curve of mound shape
-
REFERENCE:
 www.mathisfun.com
 www.m.inmath.com

Statistics and Probability, A Simplified

Approach, et.al Caras, Gumboc and
Salamat, National Bookstore