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The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report

Professor Michael E. Porter


Harvard Business School

Vietnam Competitiveness Report Launch


Hanoi, Vietnam
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 1
November 30, 2010
Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The Vietnam Competitiveness Report

Objectives
• Provide policy makers and external observers with a data-rich
assessment of Vietnam’s competitiveness, using a comprehensive
internationally-accepted methodology
• Develop an integrated set of policy recommendations, supported by a
transparent logic and data
• Engage decision makers from different constituencies in a dialogue on
the future of Vietnam’s competitiveness

Partners

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 2 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report

• Vietnam’s Economic Position and Development Model

• Assessing Vietnam’s Competitiveness

• A Competitiveness Strategy for Vietnam

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 3 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Position in 2010

• Significant growth over the last two decades


• Widespread reduction in poverty
• Resilience in the face of the global economic crisis

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 4 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Long-Term Prosperity Growth
1975 - 2009
GDP per
Capita, CAGR: CAGR: CAGR:
PPP adjusted
in 1990 US$ +2.47% +5.00% +6.15%

Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2010)
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 5 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Position in 2010

• Significant growth over the last two decades


• Widespread reduction in poverty
• Resilience in the face of the global economic crisis

BUT

• Still low level of prosperity and productivity


• Growing concerns about the economic sustainability of Vietnam’s
current development model

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 6 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Prosperity Performance
PPP-adjusted GDP per
Selected Countries, 1999 to 2009
Capita, 2009 ($USD)

Growth of Real GDP per Capita (PPP-adjusted), CAGR, 2000 to 2009


Source: EIU (2010) , authors
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 calculations
– v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 7 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Labor Productivity
PPP-adjusted GDP per
Employee, 1990-$USD

Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2010)
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 8 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Current Development Model

• Structural change, fuelled by Vietnam’s integration into the global economy,


has been the key driver of Vietnam’s growth
• Foreign investors have combined capital with Vietnamese labor and imported
inputs to serve global markets, increasingly also domestic demand

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 9 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Structural Change and Vietnamese Growth
Decomposing Vietnamese Labor Productivity Growth, 2000 - 2008

Source: General Statistics Office, Vietnam; ACI calculations


Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 10 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Drivers of Structural Change: Economic Openness

Openness to Trade Openness to Investment

Source: EIU (2010)

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 11 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The Growth of the FDI Sector

Profits (return on
Growth (2000 = 100) fixed capital)
450 30%

400
Profits 25%
350

300 20%

250
15%
200

150 # Firms 10%

100 Workers

Fixed Capital 5%
50

0 0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Data from General Statistics Office, Vietnam.
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 12 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Current Development Model

• Structural change, fuelled by Vietnam’s integration into the global economy,


has been the key driver of Vietnam’s growth
• Foreign investors have combined capital with Vietnamese labor and imported
inputs to serve global markets, increasingly also domestic demand

• Value added and productivity in Vietnam remains low , especially in manufacturing


• FDI and exports create jobs, but have not raised prosperity levels beyond the low
wages in manufacturing
• There is little evidence of positive spill-overs from FDI to the rest of the
Vietnamese economy in terms of improving productivity and technology

• Vietnam’s attractiveness to investors is almost solely the result of the low prevailing
wages
• In a changing global market environment, this is unlikely to be sufficient for
sustained growth

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 13 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Relative Wages: Selected Countries
Avg. monthly wage
(US$)
2000
$1,809.91
1800

1600

1400

1200 $1,146.47

1000
$829.71
800

600 $540.45

400 $336.04

$166.95 $156.19
200 $117.15 $82.29
$48.72 $47.36
0
ila

ta
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ok

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an

an
a

en
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d
ar

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po

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gk
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ak
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/J

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et

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M

on
n
la
/
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hi
ai

d
C
in

Th

In
pp
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Source: Philippines Department of Labor and Employment (2010)


Ph

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 14 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Exports By Type of Industry
World Export Market
Share (current USD)
Processed Goods
0.8% Semi-processed Goods
Unprocessed Goods
Services
0.7% TOTAL

0.6%

0.5%

0.4%

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

0.0%
Source: UNComTrade, WTO (2010)
1997 1998
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 1999 2000 2001 2002
15 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20
Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Cluster Export Portfolio
1997 - 2009
Change In Vietnam’s average
world export share: 0.275%
Vietnam’s world export market share, 2009

Vietnam’s average world


export share: 0.416%

Change in Vietnam’s world export market share, 1997 – 2009


Exports of US $2 Billion =
Source: Prof. Michael E. Porter, International Cluster Competitiveness Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business
School; Richard Bryden, Project Director. Underlying data drawn from the UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database and the IMF BOP statistics.
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 16 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Share of World Exports by Cluster
World Market Share Vietnam, 2008
0.5% - 1.5%

1.5% - 5% Fishing & Enter- Textiles


Fishing tainment Prefabricated
5% - 10% Products Hospitality
Enclosures
& Tourism
Agricultural
Products
Transportation Furniture
Processed & Logistics Building
Food Aerospace Fixtures, Construction
Vehicles & Equipment & Materials
Distribution Information Defense Services
Jewelry &
Services Tech.
Precious Lightning & Heavy
Metals Electrical Construction
Business Analytical Services
Education & Instruments Equipment
Services Power Forest
Knowledge Medical
Creation Generation Products
Devices Communi-
Publishing cations
& Printing Equipment
Biopharma- Heavy
Financial
ceuticals Machinery
Services
Motor Driven Production
Chemical Products Technology
Products Tobacco
Oil & Automotive
Gas Aerospace Mining & Metal
Plastics Engines Manufacturing
Apparel

Leather &
Footwear Related Sporting Marine
Products & Recreation Equipment
Goods
Note: Clusters with overlapping borders have at least 20% overlap (by number of industries) in both directions.
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 17 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The External Environment in 2010

Opportunities Threats

• New opportunities as a means to • Disruptions that could limit


serve new demand demand
– Emergence of Asia – Rising protectionism
– Increasing market of – Overheating in China; sluggish
consumers with similar needs growth elsewhere
as in Vietnam – Climate change

• New opportunities as a supply • Competition that could reduce


base Vietnams attractiveness
– Cost pressure on global – From other low-wage locations
companies – From within the increasingly
– China + 1 strategy of MNCs open ASEAN region

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 18 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Current Development Model
Emerging Weaknesses

• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand
drive growing trade deficit

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 19 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Balance of Trade
1995 – 2008
US$M

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

-10,000

-20,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Pr
Source: Data from General Statistics Office, Vietnam.
20
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 20 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Current Development Model
Emerging Weaknesses

• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand
drive growing trade deficit
• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 21 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Currency Valuation
Index (2000 = 100)

160
CPI VN/CPI USA

150

140

Exchange
Rate Index
130 VN

120

110

100

90

80
2000
Source: 2000-2008 data 2001
– WDI; 2009 data – EIU 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 22 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Current Development Model
Emerging Weaknesses

• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand
drive growing trade deficit
• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit
• Significant capital inflows fuel domestic demand growth and inflation
• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather than
control it

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 23 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Rate of Inflation
% change in CPI Selected Countries, 2000 - 2009
25%

20%

15%

Vietnam
Indonesia
10%
Malaysia
China
Thailand
5%

0%

-5%
Source: EIU 2010 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 24 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Current Development Model
Emerging Weaknesses

• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand
drive growing trade deficit
• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit
• Significant capital inflows fuel domestic demand growth and inflation
• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather than
control it
• Falling ratio of GDP growth to investment increases the need for capital
inflows to maintain the growth rate
• Demand growth is outstripping the existing microeconomic capacity in terms of
skills and infrastructure

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 25 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Ease of Worker Recruitment

Percentage of Firms that report Difficulty in Recruiting

Source: Junichi Mori , Nguyen Thi Xuan Thuy, and Pham Truong Hoang (2009) – data drawn from Japanese-Affiliated
Manufacturers in Asia, JETRO. Note: Surveys in 2003-2004 did not include questions about recruitment of general workers
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 26 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Current Development Model
Emerging Weaknesses

• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand
drive growing trade deficit
• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit
• Significant capital inflows fuel domestic demand growth and inflation
• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather than
control it
• Falling ratio of GDP growth to investment increases the need for capital
inflows to maintain the growth rate
• Demand growth is outstripping the existing microeconomic capacity in terms of
skills and infrastructure
• The gap between announced and implemented FDI is rising

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 27 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam
US $M 1988 - 2008
70,000

Registered
60,000
Actively Invested

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Source: General Statistics Office,Vietnam


Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 28 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report

• Vietnam’s Economic Position and Development Model

• Assessing Vietnam’s Competitiveness

• A Competitiveness Strategy for Vietnam

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 29 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Determinants of Competitiveness
Microeconomic Competitiveness

Quality of the Sophistication


National State of Cluster of Company
Business Development Operations and
Environment Strategy

Macroeconomic Competitiveness

Social
Infrastructure Macroeconomic
and Political Policies
Institutions

Endowments

• Macroeconomic competitiveness creates the potential for high productivity, but is not
sufficient
• Productivity ultimately depends on improving the microeconomic capability of the
economy and the sophistication of local competition
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 30 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Macroeconomic Competitiveness

Social Infrastructure and Macroeconomic


Political Institutions •
Policies

• Human development • Fiscal policy


– Basic education – Government surplus/deficit
– Health system – Government debt

• Political institutions • Monetary policy


– Political freedom – Inflation
– Voice and accountability
– Political stability
– Government effectiveness
– Centralization of economic policymaking

• Rule of law
– Security
– Judicial independence
– Efficiency of legal framework
– Business costs of corruption
– Civil rights

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 31 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Determinants of Competitiveness

Microeconomic Competitiveness
Quality of the Sophistication
National State of Cluster of Company
Business Development Operations and
Sophistication
Environment Strategy of Company
Operations and
Macroeconomic Competitiveness Strategy
Social
Infrastructure Macroeconomic • The internal skills,
and Political Policies capabilities, and management
Institutions
practices needed for
companies to attain the
highest level of productivity
Endowments and innovation possible

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 32 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Determinants of Competitiveness

Microeconomic Competitiveness
Quality of the Sophistication
National State of Cluster of Company
Business Development Operations and
Quality of the Environment Strategy
National Business
Environment Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Social
• The external business Infrastructure Macroeconomic
and Political Policies
environment conditions that Institutions
allow companies to reach high
levels of productivity and
innovation
Endowments

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 33 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Quality of the National Business Environment
Context
Contextforfor
Firm
Firm
Strategy
Strategy
and
andRivalry
Rivalry

• Local rules and incentives that


encourage investment and productivity
 Open and vigorous local competition
Factor
Factor Demand
Demand
(Input)
(Input) Conditions
Conditions
Conditions
Conditions

• Access to high quality business • Sophisticated and demanding local


inputs customers and needs

Related
Relatedand
and
Supporting
Supporting
Industries
Industries

• Availability of suppliers and supporting


industries

• Many things matter for competitiveness


• Successful economic development is a process of successive upgrading, in which the
business environment improves to enable increasingly sophisticated ways of competing
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 34 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Determinants of Competitiveness

Microeconomic Competitiveness
Quality of the Sophistication
National State of Cluster of Company
Business Development Operations and
Environment Strategy

Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Social
Infrastructure Macroeconomic
State of Cluster and Political Policies
Development Institutions

• A geographic concentration of Endowments


firms, specialized assets, and
institutions in particular fields.

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 35 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The Thai Automotive Cluster: The Activity Dimension

Steel Assemblers
Steel Distribution
Distribution

Plastics
Plastics Motor- Passenger Pickup
Motor- Passenger Pickup
cycles
cycles Cars
Cars Trucks
Trucks Finance
Finance
Rubber&Tires
Rubber&Tires
Testing
Testing
Electronics
Electronics
Components
Components and
and Module
Module Makers
Makers Specialized
Specialized
Glass
Glass (1
(1 tier)
stst
tier) Consultants
Consultants
Engines,
Engines,Drivetrains,
Drivetrains,Steering,
Steering,Suspension,
Suspension,Brake,
Brake,Wheel,
Wheel,Tire,
Tire,
Bodyworks,
Bodyworks,Interiors,
Interiors,Electronics
Electronicsand
andElectrical
ElectricalSystems
Leather
Leather && Systems
Fabric
Fabric Services
Services
Parts
Parts (2
(2ndnd && 33rdrd tiers)
tiers)
Machinery Stamping,
Stamping,Plastics,
Plastics,Rubber,
Rubber,Machining,
Machining,Casting,
Casting,Forging,
Forging,
Machinery Function,
Function,Electrical,
Electrical,Trimming
Trimming Globally Competitive

Regionally Competitive
Tools
Tools Nationally Significant

Nationally Insignificant
Mold&Die
Mold&Die
Education
Education andand
Government
Government Technical
Technical Associations
Associations
Jig&Fixture
Jig&Fixture Institutions
Institutions

Source: Sasin-team
Vietnam Competitiveness analysis,
20101130 2003
– v8 Mon Nov 22study
10AM 36 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Clusters and Competitiveness

• Clusters increase productivity and operational efficiency

• Clusters stimulate and enable innovations

• Clusters facilitate commercialization and new business formation

• Clusters reflect the fundamental influence of linkages and spill-overs


across firms and associated institutions in competition

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 37 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Stages of National Competitive Development
Shifting Policy Imperatives

Factor-Driven Investment- Innovation-


Economy Driven Economy Driven Economy

Low Cost Inputs Productivity Unique Value


• Macro, political, and legal • Increasing local rivalry • Advanced skills
stability • Market opening • Scientific and technological
• Improving human capital • Advanced infrastructure institutions
• Efficient basic • Incentives and rules • Incentives and rules
infrastructure encouraging productivity encouraging innovation
• Lowering regulatory costs • Cluster formation and • Cluster upgrading
of doing business activation

Source: Porter, Michael E., The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Macmillan Press, 1990
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 38 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Competitiveness Profile
Position Relative to Current Prosperity

Country Competitiveness

Macroeconomic Microeconomic
Competitiveness Competitiveness

Company
Political Macroeconomic National Business
Operations and
Institutions Policy Environment
Strategy

Rule of Law
Significant
advantage

Moderate
advantage
Human
Development Neutral

Moderate
disadvantage

Significant
disadvantage
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 39 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Rank in Global Corruption Perception Index, 2009
Corruption Index,
2009

Deteriorating Improving
Low
corruption

High
corruption

Change in Rank, Global Corruption Report, 2009 versus 2001


Note: Ranks only countries available in both years (91 countries total)
Source: Global Corruption Report, 2009
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 40 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s National Business Environment
Context
Contextfor
for
Firm
Firm
Strategy
Strategy
and
andRivalry
Rivalry
 High level of openness to foreign investors
 WTO/ASEAN liberalization commitments but
remaining important barriers

Factor
Factor
 Weak competition policy and enforcement
Demand
Demand
(Input)
(Input)
 Unequal competition among companies,
with SOEs receiving special treatment Conditions
Conditions
Conditions
Conditions  Competition focused on price, not quality
 Unclear separation of government role as a
 Basic physical infrastructure in place; regulator from that as an owner  Sizeable and growing market
low effectiveness of the significant
 Equitization of SOEs not oriented towards  Low, yet improving, sophistication
ongoing further investments
improving performance of local customers
 Solid communication infrastructure as a  Weak regulatory quality standards
result of liberalization and competition
and enforcement
 Growing but still shallow financial
system; highly volatile and speculative,
with limited access to credit for new Related
Relatedand
and
private companies Supporting
Supporting
 Education system is growing but Industries
Industries
provides largely insufficient quality;
serious shortage of skilled labor
 Natural emergence of clusters, but focus on
 Modest performance on administrative narrow activities with weak presence of local
infrastructure, but major reforms (e.g. suppliers and service providers
Project 30) under way
 Shallow roots of FDI in the local economy
 Poor innovation infrastructure
 Sector-oriented policies ineffective and not
systematically focused on clusters
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 41 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Regulatory Quality: Selected Countries
Composite Measure
of Regulatory Quality
0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

Malaysia
0.0 Thailand
China
Vietnam
-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: World Bank Institute, Global governance indicators, 2009. Values for 1997, 1999 and 2001 have been interpolated.
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 42 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Sophistication of Vietnamese Companies

• High levels of flexibility and responsiveness to market opportunities


• Short-term, opportunistic company strategies
• Compete primarily on cost, not quality
• Low level of operational sophistication
• Large SOEs operating as corporate groups with little synergy
• Huge gap in operational effectiveness and productivity between
Vietnamese SOEs, Vietnamese private companies, and foreign MNCs

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 43 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Competitiveness in 2010: Summary

• Vietnam’s key current competitive advantages are based on inherited


endowments, especially its geographic location and demographic profile
• Government has enabled these advantages to reveal itself through market
opening and investments in basic infrastructure
• It has not created new, distinctive advantages
• Government efforts to meet the infrastructure and regulatory needs of a growing
economy are hampered by a traditional governance system, focused on
control
• While the development model has been successful in the past, the signs of its
fragility are increasing

• Vietnam needs a strategy to develop a new development model, build on


distinctive competitive advantages that can sustain growth in a changing global
market environment

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 44 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report

• Vietnam’s Economic Position and Development Model

• Assessing Vietnam’s Competitiveness

• A Competitiveness Strategy for Vietnam

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 45 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Towards a New Strategy: Three Guiding Principles

A new orientation towards competitiveness


• From a focus on macroeconomic drivers of structural change to
upgrading macro- and microeconomic foundations of productivity

A structural transformation in the role of the private sector


• From a focus on SOEs and foreign MNCs to a market-driven
combination of private firms, MNCs, and transformed SOE’s

A new role for government


• From a government controlling a transition economy to a government
creating competitive advantages in a market economy

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 46 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Competitiveness Agenda
Strategic Action Priorities

Address emerging Prepare the next


challenges stage of development

Manage the Address Create the


growing emerging foundations for
macroeconomic bottlenecks in higher
imbalances key input factors productivity

Secure current growth Enable future growth

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 47 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Manage Macroeconomic Imbalances
Key Action Proposals
• Transparency of fiscal position of the government and SOEs
– Create central entity with mandate to report on fiscal position of all
government entities and of SOEs and on the current state of the economy
• Budget discipline
– Establish regular monitoring/auditing of public spending
– Strengthen quality and effectiveness of public debt management
• Consistent and predictable monetary policy
– Clarify roles of the National Assembly, the government, and the Central
Bank
– Set clear monetary policy goals
• Financial market regulation
– Enhance regulatory oversight of the financial system through the Central
Bank
• Coordination of overall macroeconomic policy over time
– Strengthen mandate and operations of the Central Committee for
Financial and Monetary Policies
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 48 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Address Microeconomic Bottlenecks
Key Action Proposals

• Microeconomic bottlenecks are emerging in physical infrastructure


(transport, energy), workforce skills, and administrative capacity
• The government has identified all of these areas as action priorities
• However, current policies lack effectiveness, despite sometimes
significant financial commitments

Outlines of a new approach


• Identify and alleviate problems in specific regional clusters
• Focus individual cluster efforts on most pressing bottleneck
• Create cluster-based task-force with mandate and power to take action
• Learn from individual problems about general issues and possible nation-
wide solutions

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 49 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Possible Cluster Initiatives

Electronics & engineering cluster in Hanoi and


neighboring regions: Local supplier capacity

Tourism cluster in the Central Region:


Concept and related services

Garment cluster in Ho Chi Minh Region:


Workforce skills

Logistics cluster in Ho Chi Minh City region:


Infrastructure

Agro-processing cluster in the Mekong Delta region:


Value-added Activities

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 50 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Create Foundations for Higher Productivity
Key Action Proposals: Policies

• Education and workforce skills


– Develop a national workforce strategy with rigorous studies on the type of skills and
competencies required for future growth
– Reform the regulatory framework for the education sector
– Promote vocational training
– Set up a National Productivity Fund to support cluster-based initiatives in skill
upgrading efforts

• Physical infrastructure
– Create a centralized planning mechanism to coordinate, oversee and evaluate
infrastructure development
– Strengthen the system for managing public procurement
– Provide viable market-based financing options for infrastructure investment
– Address electricity shortages through a utility action package of investment, market
regulation and technological measures

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 51 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Create Foundations for Higher Productivity
Key Action Proposals: Policies (continued)

• Governance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)


– Separate the role of the government as an owner from that as a regulator
– Define and enforce modern governance standards for SOEs
– Ensure competition and market discipline in the markets in which SOEs
operate
– Improve the equitization process and define policy for effective
management of divestment proceedings

• Attraction of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)


– Develop a new FDI attraction strategy for Vietnam
– Strengthen the capacity of the Foreign Investment Agency (FIA)
– Set up outreach initiatives with foreign MNCs to build the local supplier
base and clusters around foreign investments

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 52 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Create Foundations for Higher Productivity
Key Action Proposals: Policies (continued)

• Cluster development
– Re-organize existing policies around clusters, especially in areas linked
to investment attraction, workforce skill development, industrial parks, and
SME/private sector-development.
– Conduct a national cluster mapping project to identify and assess
clusters across the country
– Encourage the launch of pilot cluster initiatives through the creation of a
Vietnamese Cluster Initiative Fund

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 53 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The Role of Government in Cluster Initiatives

Government Government Government


should may should not

• Support all existing • Initiate/ • Pick favored clusters


• Pick favored companies
and emerging Convene • Subsidize or distort
clusters • Co-Finance competition
• Define cluster action
• Participate priorities

• Enable data
collection and
dissemination at the
cluster level
• Be ready to
implement
recommendations

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 54 Copyright 2010 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Industrial Policy versus Cluster-Based Policy

Industrial Policy Cluster-Based Policy

• Target areas of perceived market • Leverage existing assets, history,


demand or attractive technology and geographic location
• All clusters are good
• Intervene in competition (subsidies, • Enable competition to be more
protection, etc.) productive and sophisticated
• Favor domestic companies • Neutral on ownership
• Require sustained financial • Require sustained participation by
commitment by the public sector all actors
• Centralize decisions at the national • Encourage initiative at all geographic
level levels
• Has a high failure rate; short term • Has rising impact over time; some
impact but low sustainability quick successes are possible

Distort and impede competition Enhance and upgrade competition


Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 55 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Organize Public Policy around Clusters

Business Attraction Education and Workforce Training

Science and Technology


Infrastructure
Export Promotion (e.g., centers, university
departments, technology
transfer)
Clusters
Market Information Setting standards
and Disclosure

Specialized Physical Environmental Stewardship


Infrastructure
Natural Resource Protection

• Clusters provide a framework for organizing the implementation of many


public policies and public investments directed at economic development
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 56 Copyright 2010 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Clusters, Growth, and Diversification

Grow activities
in related clusters

Grow activities in new industries


within existing clusters

Upgrade the quality of


activities in existing clusters

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 57 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Create Foundations for Higher Productivity
Key Action Proposals: Architecture

• Policy Process
– Creation of a central Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) unit to review existing
and a new laws and regulations
– Establishment of an institutionalized review process for draft laws and
regulations hat invites stakeholders to comment
– Development of a medium-term budget planning process with rolling updates

• Public Sector Capacity


– Establishment of the Prime Minister’s Policy Unit
– Launch anti-corruption campaign
– Review of the current training system for public officials, starting with pilot
agencies
– Develop comprehensive civil service reform program with modernization of
organizational structures and HR practices, including hiring, pay, promotion, etc.

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 58 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The Process of Economic Development
Shifting Roles and Responsibilities

Old
Old Model
Model New
New Model
Model

•• Government
Government drives
drives economic
economic •• Economic
Economic development
development is is aa
development
development through
through policy
policy collaborative
collaborative process
process involving
involving
decisions
decisions and
and incentives
incentives government
government at at multiple
multiple levels,
levels,
companies,
companies, teaching
teaching and
and
research
research institutions,
institutions, and
and private
private
sector
sector organizations
organizations

• Competitiveness is the result of both top-down and bottom-up processes in


which many individuals, companies, and institutions take relevant decisions

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 59 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Create Foundations for Higher Productivity
Key Action Proposals: Architecture (continued)

• Regional government
– Launch funding competition for development of regional economic
development strategies
– Develop a knowledge and skill infrastructure for regional development
– Review the current structure of authority delegation between the central
and regional governments

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 60 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Policy Levels Influencing Competitiveness

World Economy WTO

Broad Economic Areas South-East Asia

• The business environment at a given


location is the cumulative outcome of
Groups of Greater Mekong
policy at all levels of geography
Neighboring Nations Region
• Microeconomic competitiveness
raises the importance of lower
levels of geography
Nations Vietnam
• The allocation of responsibilities
across levels of geography is a
crucial policy challenge

States, Provinces Vietnamese


provinces

Metropolitan and Rural Areas Hanoi region

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 61 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Regions and Competitiveness

• Economic performance varies significantly across sub-national regions


(e.g., provinces, states, metropolitan areas)
• Many essential levers of competitiveness reside at the regional level
• Region’s specialize in different sets of clusters
• Cluster strength directly impacts regional performance
• Each region requires its own distinctive competitiveness agenda
• Improving competitiveness requires effective policy collaboration
between regions and the national government

• Decentralization is important to foster regional specialization, internal


competition, and greater government accountability
• Effective decentralization requires clarity on roles and responsibilities,
and sufficient administrative capacity at local and regional level

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 62 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Implementation Model
Creating a National Competitiveness Council

National Competitiveness Council

Coordinate Monitor Report

Task Forces Public


Action Action

Agencies Action Government

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 63 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Implementation Model

National • Upgrade quality of


Institutional policy design through
Reforms institutional reforms

National Policy • Translate cluster


Reforms experience into better
national policies

Regional Cluster • Develop local


Efforts solutions in regional
clusters

• Bottom-up approach with gradually increasing scope is more likely to mobilize


• For microeconomic upgrading, a bottom-up
all relevant constituencies approach
than traditional with gradually
top-down, increasing
big-bang approachscope is
more likely to engage all relevant constituencies than traditional top-down efforts
• Macroeconomic policies controlled at the national level; can and should be
• For macroeconomic upgrading, the national control over policies allows for a more traditional
addressed directly
approach
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 64 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Creating a National Economic Strategy for Vietnam

National Value Proposition

• What is the distinctive competitive position of Vietnam


given its location, legacy, existing strengths, and potential
strengths?
– What unique value as a business location?
– For what types of activities and clusters?
– And what roles with neighbors, the region, and the broader
world?

Achieving and Maintaining Parity


Developing Unique Strengths
with Peers

• What elements of the business • What weaknesses must be addressed to


environment can be unique strengths remove key constraints and achieve parity
relative to peers/neighbors? with peer countries?
• What existing and emerging clusters
represent local strengths?

• Priorities and sequencing are necessity in economic development


Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 65 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Role of a National Value Proposition

• The value proposition should be an inspiration to the Vietnamese population

• The value proposition is a signal to companies from abroad and at home about
what assets and conditions can expect to find in Vietnam

• The value proposition is a signal to policy makers in Vietnam of what type of


improvements are most critical in order to make the value proposition a reality

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 66 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Towards A Value Proposition for Vietnam

What is Unique about Vietnam? What does Vietnam aim to offer?

• Location • Access to a growing market and


• Demographics region
• Legacy of influence from China, • Manufacturing base to compliment
Europe, US MNCs Chinese operations
• Natural resources • Integration into/access to ASEAN-
• Established positions in selected wide cluster networks (electronics,
automotive, ..)
global markets (footwear, apparel,
coffee, and seafood products) • Strong clusters in areas like
• … footwear, apparel, coffee, and
seafood products
• …

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 67 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Competitiveness Challenge:
From Ambition to Action

Provide access Enable emergence


to existing of new
comparative competitive
advantages advantages

Low labor costs


Productivity
Natural endowments

Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 68 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter

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