Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Objectives
• Provide policy makers and external observers with a data-rich
assessment of Vietnam’s competitiveness, using a comprehensive
internationally-accepted methodology
• Develop an integrated set of policy recommendations, supported by a
transparent logic and data
• Engage decision makers from different constituencies in a dialogue on
the future of Vietnam’s competitiveness
Partners
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 2 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 3 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Position in 2010
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 4 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Long-Term Prosperity Growth
1975 - 2009
GDP per
Capita, CAGR: CAGR: CAGR:
PPP adjusted
in 1990 US$ +2.47% +5.00% +6.15%
Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2010)
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 5 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Position in 2010
BUT
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 6 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Prosperity Performance
PPP-adjusted GDP per
Selected Countries, 1999 to 2009
Capita, 2009 ($USD)
Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2010)
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 8 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Current Development Model
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 9 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Structural Change and Vietnamese Growth
Decomposing Vietnamese Labor Productivity Growth, 2000 - 2008
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 11 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The Growth of the FDI Sector
Profits (return on
Growth (2000 = 100) fixed capital)
450 30%
400
Profits 25%
350
300 20%
250
15%
200
100 Workers
Fixed Capital 5%
50
0 0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Data from General Statistics Office, Vietnam.
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 12 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Current Development Model
• Vietnam’s attractiveness to investors is almost solely the result of the low prevailing
wages
• In a changing global market environment, this is unlikely to be sufficient for
sustained growth
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 13 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Relative Wages: Selected Countries
Avg. monthly wage
(US$)
2000
$1,809.91
1800
1600
1400
1200 $1,146.47
1000
$829.71
800
600 $540.45
400 $336.04
$166.95 $156.19
200 $117.15 $82.29
$48.72 $47.36
0
ila
ta
a
m
re
ok
ia
an
an
a
en
si
re
d
ar
na
po
an
p
gk
iw
zh
ay
bo
Ko
ak
Ja
et
M
na
Ta
an
n
al
am
/J
Vi
he
h
ro
M
Si
/B
ia
ut
C
S
et
nd
es
So
a/
M
on
n
la
/
es
hi
ai
d
C
in
Th
In
pp
i li
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 14 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Exports By Type of Industry
World Export Market
Share (current USD)
Processed Goods
0.8% Semi-processed Goods
Unprocessed Goods
Services
0.7% TOTAL
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Source: UNComTrade, WTO (2010)
1997 1998
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 1999 2000 2001 2002
15 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20
Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Cluster Export Portfolio
1997 - 2009
Change In Vietnam’s average
world export share: 0.275%
Vietnam’s world export market share, 2009
Leather &
Footwear Related Sporting Marine
Products & Recreation Equipment
Goods
Note: Clusters with overlapping borders have at least 20% overlap (by number of industries) in both directions.
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 17 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The External Environment in 2010
Opportunities Threats
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 18 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Current Development Model
Emerging Weaknesses
• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand
drive growing trade deficit
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 19 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Balance of Trade
1995 – 2008
US$M
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-10,000
-20,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Pr
Source: Data from General Statistics Office, Vietnam.
20
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 20 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Current Development Model
Emerging Weaknesses
• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand
drive growing trade deficit
• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 21 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Currency Valuation
Index (2000 = 100)
160
CPI VN/CPI USA
150
140
Exchange
Rate Index
130 VN
120
110
100
90
80
2000
Source: 2000-2008 data 2001
– WDI; 2009 data – EIU 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 22 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Current Development Model
Emerging Weaknesses
• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand
drive growing trade deficit
• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit
• Significant capital inflows fuel domestic demand growth and inflation
• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather than
control it
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 23 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Rate of Inflation
% change in CPI Selected Countries, 2000 - 2009
25%
20%
15%
Vietnam
Indonesia
10%
Malaysia
China
Thailand
5%
0%
-5%
Source: EIU 2010 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 24 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Current Development Model
Emerging Weaknesses
• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand
drive growing trade deficit
• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit
• Significant capital inflows fuel domestic demand growth and inflation
• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather than
control it
• Falling ratio of GDP growth to investment increases the need for capital
inflows to maintain the growth rate
• Demand growth is outstripping the existing microeconomic capacity in terms of
skills and infrastructure
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 25 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Ease of Worker Recruitment
Source: Junichi Mori , Nguyen Thi Xuan Thuy, and Pham Truong Hoang (2009) – data drawn from Japanese-Affiliated
Manufacturers in Asia, JETRO. Note: Surveys in 2003-2004 did not include questions about recruitment of general workers
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 26 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Current Development Model
Emerging Weaknesses
• Low sophistication in the export sector coupled with strong domestic demand
drive growing trade deficit
• Real appreciation of the Dong further contributes to the deficit
• Significant capital inflows fuel domestic demand growth and inflation
• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies worsen inflation, rather than
control it
• Falling ratio of GDP growth to investment increases the need for capital
inflows to maintain the growth rate
• Demand growth is outstripping the existing microeconomic capacity in terms of
skills and infrastructure
• The gap between announced and implemented FDI is rising
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 27 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam
US $M 1988 - 2008
70,000
Registered
60,000
Actively Invested
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 29 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Determinants of Competitiveness
Microeconomic Competitiveness
Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Social
Infrastructure Macroeconomic
and Political Policies
Institutions
Endowments
• Macroeconomic competitiveness creates the potential for high productivity, but is not
sufficient
• Productivity ultimately depends on improving the microeconomic capability of the
economy and the sophistication of local competition
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 30 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Macroeconomic Competitiveness
• Rule of law
– Security
– Judicial independence
– Efficiency of legal framework
– Business costs of corruption
– Civil rights
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 31 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Determinants of Competitiveness
Microeconomic Competitiveness
Quality of the Sophistication
National State of Cluster of Company
Business Development Operations and
Sophistication
Environment Strategy of Company
Operations and
Macroeconomic Competitiveness Strategy
Social
Infrastructure Macroeconomic • The internal skills,
and Political Policies capabilities, and management
Institutions
practices needed for
companies to attain the
highest level of productivity
Endowments and innovation possible
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 32 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Determinants of Competitiveness
Microeconomic Competitiveness
Quality of the Sophistication
National State of Cluster of Company
Business Development Operations and
Quality of the Environment Strategy
National Business
Environment Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Social
• The external business Infrastructure Macroeconomic
and Political Policies
environment conditions that Institutions
allow companies to reach high
levels of productivity and
innovation
Endowments
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 33 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Quality of the National Business Environment
Context
Contextforfor
Firm
Firm
Strategy
Strategy
and
andRivalry
Rivalry
Related
Relatedand
and
Supporting
Supporting
Industries
Industries
Microeconomic Competitiveness
Quality of the Sophistication
National State of Cluster of Company
Business Development Operations and
Environment Strategy
Macroeconomic Competitiveness
Social
Infrastructure Macroeconomic
State of Cluster and Political Policies
Development Institutions
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 35 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The Thai Automotive Cluster: The Activity Dimension
Steel Assemblers
Steel Distribution
Distribution
Plastics
Plastics Motor- Passenger Pickup
Motor- Passenger Pickup
cycles
cycles Cars
Cars Trucks
Trucks Finance
Finance
Rubber&Tires
Rubber&Tires
Testing
Testing
Electronics
Electronics
Components
Components and
and Module
Module Makers
Makers Specialized
Specialized
Glass
Glass (1
(1 tier)
stst
tier) Consultants
Consultants
Engines,
Engines,Drivetrains,
Drivetrains,Steering,
Steering,Suspension,
Suspension,Brake,
Brake,Wheel,
Wheel,Tire,
Tire,
Bodyworks,
Bodyworks,Interiors,
Interiors,Electronics
Electronicsand
andElectrical
ElectricalSystems
Leather
Leather && Systems
Fabric
Fabric Services
Services
Parts
Parts (2
(2ndnd && 33rdrd tiers)
tiers)
Machinery Stamping,
Stamping,Plastics,
Plastics,Rubber,
Rubber,Machining,
Machining,Casting,
Casting,Forging,
Forging,
Machinery Function,
Function,Electrical,
Electrical,Trimming
Trimming Globally Competitive
Regionally Competitive
Tools
Tools Nationally Significant
Nationally Insignificant
Mold&Die
Mold&Die
Education
Education andand
Government
Government Technical
Technical Associations
Associations
Jig&Fixture
Jig&Fixture Institutions
Institutions
Source: Sasin-team
Vietnam Competitiveness analysis,
20101130 2003
– v8 Mon Nov 22study
10AM 36 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Clusters and Competitiveness
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 37 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Stages of National Competitive Development
Shifting Policy Imperatives
Source: Porter, Michael E., The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Macmillan Press, 1990
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 38 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Competitiveness Profile
Position Relative to Current Prosperity
Country Competitiveness
Macroeconomic Microeconomic
Competitiveness Competitiveness
Company
Political Macroeconomic National Business
Operations and
Institutions Policy Environment
Strategy
Rule of Law
Significant
advantage
Moderate
advantage
Human
Development Neutral
Moderate
disadvantage
Significant
disadvantage
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 39 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Rank in Global Corruption Perception Index, 2009
Corruption Index,
2009
Deteriorating Improving
Low
corruption
High
corruption
Factor
Factor
Weak competition policy and enforcement
Demand
Demand
(Input)
(Input)
Unequal competition among companies,
with SOEs receiving special treatment Conditions
Conditions
Conditions
Conditions Competition focused on price, not quality
Unclear separation of government role as a
Basic physical infrastructure in place; regulator from that as an owner Sizeable and growing market
low effectiveness of the significant
Equitization of SOEs not oriented towards Low, yet improving, sophistication
ongoing further investments
improving performance of local customers
Solid communication infrastructure as a Weak regulatory quality standards
result of liberalization and competition
and enforcement
Growing but still shallow financial
system; highly volatile and speculative,
with limited access to credit for new Related
Relatedand
and
private companies Supporting
Supporting
Education system is growing but Industries
Industries
provides largely insufficient quality;
serious shortage of skilled labor
Natural emergence of clusters, but focus on
Modest performance on administrative narrow activities with weak presence of local
infrastructure, but major reforms (e.g. suppliers and service providers
Project 30) under way
Shallow roots of FDI in the local economy
Poor innovation infrastructure
Sector-oriented policies ineffective and not
systematically focused on clusters
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 41 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Regulatory Quality: Selected Countries
Composite Measure
of Regulatory Quality
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Malaysia
0.0 Thailand
China
Vietnam
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: World Bank Institute, Global governance indicators, 2009. Values for 1997, 1999 and 2001 have been interpolated.
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 42 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Sophistication of Vietnamese Companies
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 43 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Competitiveness in 2010: Summary
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 44 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The 2010 Vietnam Competitiveness Report
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 45 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Towards a New Strategy: Three Guiding Principles
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 46 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Competitiveness Agenda
Strategic Action Priorities
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 47 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Manage Macroeconomic Imbalances
Key Action Proposals
• Transparency of fiscal position of the government and SOEs
– Create central entity with mandate to report on fiscal position of all
government entities and of SOEs and on the current state of the economy
• Budget discipline
– Establish regular monitoring/auditing of public spending
– Strengthen quality and effectiveness of public debt management
• Consistent and predictable monetary policy
– Clarify roles of the National Assembly, the government, and the Central
Bank
– Set clear monetary policy goals
• Financial market regulation
– Enhance regulatory oversight of the financial system through the Central
Bank
• Coordination of overall macroeconomic policy over time
– Strengthen mandate and operations of the Central Committee for
Financial and Monetary Policies
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 48 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Address Microeconomic Bottlenecks
Key Action Proposals
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 49 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Possible Cluster Initiatives
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 50 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Create Foundations for Higher Productivity
Key Action Proposals: Policies
• Physical infrastructure
– Create a centralized planning mechanism to coordinate, oversee and evaluate
infrastructure development
– Strengthen the system for managing public procurement
– Provide viable market-based financing options for infrastructure investment
– Address electricity shortages through a utility action package of investment, market
regulation and technological measures
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 51 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Create Foundations for Higher Productivity
Key Action Proposals: Policies (continued)
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 52 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Create Foundations for Higher Productivity
Key Action Proposals: Policies (continued)
• Cluster development
– Re-organize existing policies around clusters, especially in areas linked
to investment attraction, workforce skill development, industrial parks, and
SME/private sector-development.
– Conduct a national cluster mapping project to identify and assess
clusters across the country
– Encourage the launch of pilot cluster initiatives through the creation of a
Vietnamese Cluster Initiative Fund
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 53 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The Role of Government in Cluster Initiatives
• Enable data
collection and
dissemination at the
cluster level
• Be ready to
implement
recommendations
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 54 Copyright 2010 © Professor Michael E. Porter
Industrial Policy versus Cluster-Based Policy
Grow activities
in related clusters
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 57 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Create Foundations for Higher Productivity
Key Action Proposals: Architecture
• Policy Process
– Creation of a central Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) unit to review existing
and a new laws and regulations
– Establishment of an institutionalized review process for draft laws and
regulations hat invites stakeholders to comment
– Development of a medium-term budget planning process with rolling updates
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 58 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
The Process of Economic Development
Shifting Roles and Responsibilities
Old
Old Model
Model New
New Model
Model
•• Government
Government drives
drives economic
economic •• Economic
Economic development
development is is aa
development
development through
through policy
policy collaborative
collaborative process
process involving
involving
decisions
decisions and
and incentives
incentives government
government at at multiple
multiple levels,
levels,
companies,
companies, teaching
teaching and
and
research
research institutions,
institutions, and
and private
private
sector
sector organizations
organizations
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 59 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Create Foundations for Higher Productivity
Key Action Proposals: Architecture (continued)
• Regional government
– Launch funding competition for development of regional economic
development strategies
– Develop a knowledge and skill infrastructure for regional development
– Review the current structure of authority delegation between the central
and regional governments
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 60 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Policy Levels Influencing Competitiveness
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 61 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Regions and Competitiveness
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 62 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Implementation Model
Creating a National Competitiveness Council
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 63 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Implementation Model
• The value proposition is a signal to companies from abroad and at home about
what assets and conditions can expect to find in Vietnam
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 66 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Towards A Value Proposition for Vietnam
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 67 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter
Vietnam’s Competitiveness Challenge:
From Ambition to Action
Vietnam Competitiveness 20101130 – v8 Mon Nov 22 10AM 68 Copyright 2010 @ Professor Michael E. Porter