Global Warming

What is Global Climate Change and Global Warming?

• Climate change is used to refer to mean

changes in the earth’s temperature, (though
'climate' encompasses many other variables
(precipitation, clouds, etc))
It includes natural and anthropogenic factors

• Global Warming is usually used to mean

changes with predominantly anthropogenic
forcing.
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How much has the climate changed?

• The earth’s surface temperature has risen by 10F in

the last 100 years, according to the National Academy
of Sciences, USA
• The 20th century’s 10 warmest years all occurred in
the last 15 years of the century. Of these, 1998 was
the warmest year on record followed by 2000
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A few Indicators

• In May 2002, 2 new ice bergs admeasuring

nearly 2500 & 245 sq. miles broke off
Antarctica, beginning a chain of ice melts in the
southern continent which has seen more ice
melt in the last 50 years than in the last 10,000
years; this is leading to a phenomenal sea level
rise
• There are signs of melting glaciers around the world:
Himalayas, Andes, Greenland: this has often lead to
floods downstream such as the one that
inundates Bangladesh every year in recent times
• Arctic ice is also showing signs of thinning. Although
this does not lead to sea level rise, it leads to change in
the earth’s albedo which in turn increases heat
absorption and sea level rise
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A few Indicators

Breaking away of Larsen 4, 3,250 Sahara dust off the coast of Africa,
sq km in area off Antarctic ice shelf technically aerosols moving into
the oceans
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A few Indicators

• Europe is already seeing the effects of

climate change phenomenon: France faced its
worst floods and droughts both in the same
year 2003; other parts of Europe such as
England have also shown extreme weather
conditions
• Tuvalu, an island of 10,000 inhabitants in the
Pacific ocean has already half submerged,
turning its inhabitants into eco refugees

• In India, heat waves claimed thousands of

lives in 2002, unable to bear temperatures that
hit 500C in parts of Southern Andhra Pradesh;
the victims were mainly elderly people
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A few Indicators

Satellite image showing rise in surface and ocean temperatures in 2000

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A few Indicators

Hurrican Issaac and

other effects of change
in ocean currents make
climate predictability
over local areas
extremely difficult
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A few Indicators

Migration and extinction of species

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History of earth’s climate: glacial & interglacial periods

• Milutin Milankovic theory suggests that earth’s

eccentricity, orbit and albedo determines and in turn is
determined by its ice cover at the poles and over a cycle
of 100,000 years leads to glacial and interglacial periods

• Glacial periods are periods of extreme cold

temperatures interspersed by interglacial periods of
temperate climate; both typically last millions of years

• There have been four major periods of glaciation

and interglaciation in the Earth's past.

• The first, and possibly most severe ice age may have
occurred from 800 to 600 million years ago (the late
Proterozoic Age) covering the earth like a snowball; It is
said that the end of this cold period was responsible for the
subsequent Cambrian Explosion
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History of earth’s climate: glacial & interglacial periods

• The last glacial period ended about 10,000 years ago.

• The end of the last glaciation also corresponds quite

closely to the development of permanent human
settlements and agriculture, and it is possible that there
is a connection between the two events

• The present Pleistocene ice age has seen more or less

extensive glaciations on 40,000 and 100,000 year
cycles.

• Projections indicate that even in the absence of human

perturbation the present interglacial would last at least
50,000 years.
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What is new about this phenomenon now?

The present climate change is not natural but

anthropogenic caused by one species: human beings
through the release of greenhouse gases – both natural
and man made since the beginning of industrial revolution
in the 15th century
 Global Warming

What is new about this phenomenon now?

The present climate change is not natural but

anthropogenic caused by one species: human beings
through the release of greenhouse gases – both natural
and man made since the beginning of industrial revolution
in the 15th century
 Global Warming

Greenhouse gases: what and which

• Greenhouse gases are

gases that trap the long
wave radiation of the sun,
thereby heating up the
earth’s atmosphere

• Natural greenhouses
gases include: water
vapor, carbon di oxide,
nitrous oxide and ozone

• Manmade greenhouse
gases include:
hydroflorocarbons (HFCs),
perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
and sulphur hexafluoride
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Greenhouse gases: positive and negative impacts

• Without the natural green house effect, the earth’s

atmospheric temperature remains stable at around 60 0
F, making it uninhabitable, in the extremes as in Venus
or Mars.
• These gases are now responsible for heating up the
earth’s atmosphere rapidly

• The decomposition of organic matter as well as

volcanic eruptions released more than 10 times the CO2
released by human activities before the industrial
revolution, maintaining a CO2 balance

• Since the beginning of the industrial revolution,

atmospheric concentrations of carbon di oxide have
increased by nearly 30 %, methane by almost 50% and
nitrous oxide by almost 15% thus raising the heat
trapping capability of the earth
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MMTCE & GWP

• Estimates of GHG emissions are usually measured in

units of millions of metric tons of carbon equivalents
(MMTCE).

• GWP stands for Greenhouse warming potential for the

various greenhouse gases.
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Sources of GHGs

• Natural greenhouse gases: Carbon di oxide is released

to the atmosphere when solid waste, fossil fuels (oil,
coal and natural gas), wood & wood products are
burned; Methane is released during the production &
transport of coal, natural gas and oil. It is also released
from the decomposition of organic wastes in municipal
solid waste landfills, the raising of livestock and the
cultivation of rise; Nitrous oxide is naturally emitted
during agricultural and industrial activities, combustion
of solid waste and fossil fuels
• Natural GHGs are also produced from vehicular
pollution and power production from thermal plants
• Manmade GHGs are mainly produced from industrial
activities, most being CFCs now controlled under the
Montreal Protocol
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Sources of GHGs
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Building Industry & GHGs

• Production, transport and use of cement and concrete.

• Use of fossil fuel based power in buildings for all

purposes including air conditioning, heating, lighting
and ventilation

• Production of non-segregated solid waste releasing

methane in municipal landfills

• Boilers and heaters in residential, commercial and

hotels
• Destruction of carbon sinks such as forests and oceans
indiscriminately
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Carbon sinks

• Forests

• Ocean

Phytoplanktons are
the best carbon
sinks
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Implications & Projections

• Scientists estimate that

the average global
surface temperature
could rise 1 to 4.50F in
the next 50 years and
2.2 to 100F in the next
century
• Effects on the global ocean
currents due to global
warming leading to rapid
cooling in certain places and
extreme heat in others,
producing an essentially
unpredictable climatic model

• Extreme El Nino events

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Prevention or Mitigation?
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Global Efforts towards mitigation: the Kyoto Protocol

• On 9 May 1992, the text of the UN Framework

Convention on Climate Change was adopted – By June
1993, it had 166 signatories including the United States
(presently ratified by 189 countries), but the Convention
sought to reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2000 –
THE CONVENTION WAS VOLUNTARY AND NON-BINDING

• On 11 December 1997, realizing the futility of the

UNFCC, parties to the treaty convened to establish a
Protocol and met in Kyoto, Japan – they met again at
Buenos Aires in Nov 1998 and the Hague, Netherlands in
November 2000 - the Kyoto Protocol requiring the
minimum ratification of 55 countries came into effect in
June 2001
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Global Efforts towards mitigation: the Kyoto Protocol

• The Kyoto Protocol lists 6 major greenhouse gases

divided into 3 groups:
•First: Carbon di oxide, methane and nitrous oxide
•Second: Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and
sulfur hexafluoride
• Each developed nation is set a target to reduce their
emissions by a given date relative to the emissions in 1990
(for the first three) and relative to 1990 or 1995 (for the
second three): in essence it mandates ratified countries to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions by an average 5.2 %
below 1990 levels by 2008 -2012
• Besides the Protocol also provides for mechanisms for
developing and developed nations to reduce their emissions
through joint action; this is done by reducing emissions beyond
the required limit and then sell the surplus as a credit to
another nation: the Clean Development Mechanism
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Global Efforts towards mitigation: the Kyoto Protocol

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India’s commitment towards the Kyoto Protocol

• India signed the UNFCC as a non- Annex I country,

meaning it is non obligated to reduce emissions of carbon
and greenhouse gases (GHG). It ratified the agreement in
1993 recognizing the importance to reduce these harmful
emissions, but also showing its commitment to
development
• India has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol but
accepted it on 26 August 2002

• India’s non participation in the Protocol is often cited as a

major reason behind the opposition to implementing the
protocol by other signatories
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India’s commitment towards the Kyoto Protocol

• India with 251

million metric tons of
carbon equivalent
ranks fifth in the
world in carbon
emissions (even
though per capita
consumption is
among the lowest –
0.25 metric tons of
carbon per person in
2001, less than one
quarter of the world
average and 22 times
less than the US),
behind the US, China.,
Russia and Japan
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India’s commitment towards the Kyoto Protocol

• Between 1990 and

2001, India’s carbo
emissions increased by
an astonishing 61 %, a
rate surpassed only by
China’s 111% increase
during the same time
period. India’s emissions
are expect4ed to
continue to increase
throughout the decade,
offsetting the planned
reduction in GHGs from
the European Union and
other countries that plan
to implement the
Protocol's emissions
requirements
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The Clean Development Mechanism

• Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol provides for “flexible

mechanisms” known as Clean Development Mechanism to
assist Annex I countries such as India to fulfill their
commitments in a flexible and cooperative manner. It
performs three fold functions:
• to assist annex I countries in achieving sustainable
development
• to continue to contribute to the ultimate goal of the
convention, that is stabilization of GHG concentrations in
the atmosphere
• to help annex I countries comply with their emission
reduction commitments
• No specified cap has yet been laid down to ensure that
the entire reduction targets are not met by acquiring
Emission Reduction Units(ERUs) or Certified Emission
Reductions (CERs) through this mechanism