Modernization of Observation and

Forecasting System in IMD

Dr. Ajit Tyagi

IMD, New Delhi
 Overview
• Our Mandate
• Present Status
• Ongoing Programmes
- Observations
- Forecasting
• Conclusions
 Mandate

– To provide state of art weather and

climate information and forecast for
safety (Disaster Management ) and
economic development
 Key Components
• Seamless Observing System
• Real Time Communication
• Multi Sensor Data Assimilation
• End to end Forecast System
• Value Addition
• Public Weather Service
IMD’s Operational Weather Forecasting System
 Present Status
• Forecast Services are based on
conventional Synoptic Methods
supplemented by use of Numerical
Weather Prediction products of different
centers
• Observational network not adequate
• Limited use of remote sensing
• Computing resources not adequate
• Very limited use of Doppler Weather
Radar Observations
 Major Thrust

 Seamless Forecasting System :

Medium Range – Global Modeling

 Short Range – Mesoscale modelling

 Nowcasting – Application software

Extended and Long range Forecasting

 Present Gap Areas and
challenges
• Observational
– Lack of complete observational coverage of the
atmosphere, land and Oceans
– Poor resolution (not a single surface observatory in
more than 250 districts)
– Inadequate quality especially upper air observations
• Forecast models
– More thrust on synoptic meteorology, which has
limitations
– Very poor infrastructure for numerical modeling, Not
adequate computing resources, data assimilation
and statistical post processing tools
 GAPS
• Major Challenges ahead for assimilation
of data from a large number of sensors
on space based systems
• Development of products from Doppler
weather Radars. Assimilation of some of
them (on operational basis) in Numerical
Weather Prediction models
Modernization Program of IMD and
New Observations
INSAT-3D Radiance
Doppler Weather Radar observations
Automatic Weather Station
Wind Profiler
GPS observations
OCEANSAT-scatterometer wind
 Ongoing Programmes

Modernisation Phase – I
 550 AWS
 1350 ARGs
 10 GPS sonde
 12 Doppler Wx Radars
 Automated Integrated Airport
Meteorological Systems
 GPS Receivers
Location of 12 Doppler Wx Radars

1. Mumbai
2. Paradip
3. Patna
4. Karaikal
5. Goa
6. Delhi
7. Bhopal
8. Agartala
9. Patiala
10.Lucknow
11.Mohanbari
12.Nagpur
 Ongoing Programmes(contd.)
• Major actions in progress for improving
quality of upper-air observations

– Procurement in progress for purchase of

equipment to upgrade 10 no. of existing 1680
MHz upper-air ground stations along with
adequate no. of compatible radiosondes
Ongoing Programmes (contd.)
• Implementation of all schemes to upgrade
telecommunication systems in progress.
– Few equipment (Data Terminals/VSATS/IVRS)
already started arriving
– 2 new AMSS (GHT, NAGPUR)
– New Regional Telecommunication Hub (RTH)
system

• Integration of Agromet Services

• District level services to be started (May 08). A team

in place for development of model.
 Existing NWP System
NWP Models Operation at IMD, New Delhi
• Limited Area Model (LAM) (0.75x0.75, L16)
• MM5 with GFS inputs (0.45X0.45, L23)
• QLM ( for cyclone track)
• Multi-model Ensemble Forecast
- Rainfall
- Max and Min temperature
- Cloud cover
- Relative humidity
- Surface Wind
Current Assimilation Procedure

 Three Dimensional Multivariate

Optimum Interpolation (O.I) Scheme
(Dey and Morone, 1986)
 Vortex Initialization for Cyclone
situation (Holland, 1980)
 12 Hourly cycle for regional modeling
IMD Multi-model Ensemble (MME) based
District level Forecasts

Parameters:
 Rainfall
 Max and Min temperature
Total cloud cover
Surface Relative humidity
Surface Wind
 Performance Evaluation of MME Forecasts
during Monsoon 2008
SPATIAL CC (ALL INDIA) MME

The results of spatial

ECMF
0.5 GFS
JMA

correlation coefficient
0.45

0.4

0.35
for day1 to day 5
CC

0.3

0.25 forecasts illustrating

0.2

0.15
the superiority of the
DAY1 DAY2 DAY3 DAY4 DAY5
MME technique over the
ECMWF NCEP
member models
( ECMWF, JMA,NCEP)

The results of anomaly

correlation coefficient
JMA MME for day 3 forecast
showing superiority of
MME
 Heavy Rainfall on 18th June 2008

250 OBS
200 DAY1
Rainfall in mm

DAY2
150
DAY3
100 DAY4
50 DAY5

Districts

A case study showing the performance of MME

District level forecasts during heavy rainfall events
over the coastal districts of Orissa in presence of
the monsoon depression on 18 June 2008
STATE NO. DIST 2.5 mm 5 mm 10 mm 15 mm Sate-wise performance
ASSAM 24 100 100 96 63 Day 3 Rainfall Forecast
WEST BENGAL 19 100 100 79 53
29 100 100 97 45
Over-all performance of
ORISSA

JHARKHAND 18 100 100 100 56

MME district level
BIHAR 37 95 95 92 46
forecasts over some
UTTAR PRADESH 71 100 100 89 10 major states.
UTTARANCHAL 13 100 100 92 15 Performance index is
HARYANA 19 100 89 11 2
defined as the % of
PUNJAB 17 100 59 18 3 total districts with
RAJASTHAN 32 97 75 34 1 threat score more than
MADHYA 0.5 for different rainfall
PRADESH 45 100 100 78 13
GUJARAT 25 92 52 24 4
thresholds. Threat
MAHARASHTRA 33 100 88 52 21
score is defined as
CHHATTISGARH 15 100 100 100 47 number of correct
ANDHRA forecasts divided by
PRADESH 23 100 78 39 3
total forecast. The
TAMILNADU 29 76 24 10 3
threat score ranges
27 100 93 52 33
KARNATAKA
between 0 and 1 with 1
KERALA 14 100 100 100 79
as the perfect score.
STATE No. DIST 2.5 mm 5.0 mm 10 mm 15 mm
ASSAM 24 100 100 96 58
WEST BENGAL 19 100 95 84 32
ORISSA 29 100 100 97 31
JHARKHAND 18 100 100 100 39
BIHAR 37 100 97 95 38 Performance index
UTTAR PRADESH 71 100 100 92 14 of MME district
UTTARANCHAL 13 100 100 92 15 level day 5 rainfall
HARYANA 19 100 84 26 4 forecasts
PUNJAB 17 100 71 18 3
RAJASTHAN 32 97 72 38 3
MADHYA PRADESH 45 100 100 78 7
GUJARAT 25 92 36 4 3
MAHARASHTRA 33 100 88 55 21
CHHATTISGARH 15 100 100 100 20
ANDHRA PRADESH 23 100 83 48 4
TAMILNADU 29 76 24 10 3
KARNATAKA 27 100 89 52 33
KERALA 14 100 100 100 79
Qualitative verification of Rainfall Forecast
done by Meteorological Centers

Graph showing sucess and failure of rainfall forecast

120
100
80
Percentage

Failure %
60
Success %
40
20
0
Durg
Koria

Korba

Raipur
Janjgir

Bijapur
Jashpur
Surguja

Bilaspur

Kanker
Raigarh

Dhamtari

Jagdalpur
Kabirdham

Rajnandgon

Narayanpur
Dantewada
Mahasamund

Districts
Global Data Assimilation System
(GDAS)
GSI (Grid Statistical Interpolation)
Six hourly Cycle
Observations
TEMP, PILOT, SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, AIREP, AMDAR,
METAR, QUICKSCAT, TRMM, SSM/I, SATOB, ATOVS,
Profiler
AWS, GPS Refractivity, Satellite Radiances
(development of Radiative Transfer model (RTTOV/CRTM) , DWR
observations
Assimilation of Doppler Weather RADAR
(DWR) Observation
• Processing for Nowcasting Applications
• Ingest into assimilation cycle of NWP models

Parameters:
radial wind, reflectivity and
spectrum width
DWR Stations:
Chennai, Machalipatnam,
Vishakapatnam and Kolkata,
Sriharikota (ISRO)
 NHEC (Telecom server,IMD)

DWR Net-work for data processing

NCMRWF
A RADAR
mosaic creation
from reflectivity
observations

DWR Chennai
and
Machhilipatnam
of 28 September
2005
 Nov’08 Ccyclone “Khai Muk” A RADAR mosaic creation from
reflectivity observations
Well marked on 13 Nov 2008 over south Bay of Bengal,
concentrated into a depression in the evening. Moved in a
northwesterly direction, intensified into a intensified into a
cyclonic storm, “Khai Muk” It reached its maximum intensity
near near lat. 14.5° N and long. 83.0° E around 0230 hours IST
of 15th with estimated sustained maximum wind speed of 40
knots and estimated central pressure of 994 hpa.
 Example of the 30 minute rainfall (mm) estimates for the
rainstorm of 2 September 2005 from a single DWR at Chennai
and the corresponding automatic rain gauges used to validate
the data.
 Numerical
experiments for
assimilation of DWR
(radial wind and
reflectivity) data of
Chennai with ARPS
model for cyclone
Ogni of October 2006

Cyclone Ogni of Oct’06

Simulation of Bay Cyclone Ogni of October 2006
Impact of DWR Chennai data in the
ARPS Analysis and forecast
Background and boundary values from GFS model
into the ARPS grid. The Diagram is showing ½ hourly
assimilation cycle ( first 3 hours) & then 21 hours
ARPS Model forecast -

9-km assimilation:
GFS model provide background and boundary conditions
0000Z 0030Z 0130Z 0200Z 0230Z 0300Z 0000Z
29 OCT 06 0100Z
30 OCT 06

forecast forecast forecast forecast forecast forecast Forecast

ADAS ADAS ADAS ADAS ADAS ADAS ADAS (21 hrs)

IMDS.20061029.0004 IMDS.20061029.0304
88D2ARPS -

• Doppler Weather Radar data in up8 format has been collected from IMD Chennai.

• DWR data in up8 format has been converted in to netcdf format.

• 88D2ARPS has been used for remapping IMD Chennai radar data ( Radial Wind &
Reflectivity) to a Cartesian grid .

• For three hourly Data assimilation , half hourly Radar data file containing both
reflectivity & radial velocity, starting from 00 UTC, has been generated. Ex -

Name of file Time duration of Data

(1) IMDS.20061029.0004 23:46 UTC 28-10- 2006 TO 00:15 UTC 29-10-2006

(2) IMDS.20061029.0034
(3) IMDS.20061029.0104
(4) IMDS.20061029.0134
(5) IMDS.20061029.0204
(6) IMDS.20061029.0234
(7) IMDS.20061029.0304
00:16 UTC 29-10- 2006 TO 00:45 UTC 29-10-2006
00:46 UTC 29-10- 2006 TO 01:15 UTC 29-10-2006
01:16 UTC 29-10- 2006 TO 01:45 UTC 29-10-2006
01:46 UTC 29-10- 2006 TO 02:15 UTC 29-10-2006
02:16 UTC 29-10- 2006 TO 02:45 UTC 29-10-2006
02:46 UTC 29-10- 2006 TO 03:15 UTC 29-10-2006
Contd.
GFS ANALYSIS ARPS + Radar Data
Assimilation
ARPS FORECAST ARPS + Radar Data
Assimilation
ARPS FORECAST ARPS + Radar Data
Assimilation
 ARPS + Radar Data
ARPS FORECAST Assimilation
ARPS FORECAST ARPS + Radar Data
Assimilation
 Future Plan: Forecast System

 Global Forecast System (GFS T-382): 7 days

 Regional Forecast System (WRF): 3 days

 Mesoscale Forecasting System (WRF, MM5,

ARPS & HWRF-high resolution): 48 hours

 Nowcasting: Processing of DWR

observations
Plans of Sat. Met Div. for increased monitoring of
weather and inputs of quantitative products for
NWP
Present Status:
• The Sat. Met. Div. is taking half hourly images from
kalpana-1 satellite images in three channels i.e. Visible,
Infrared and Water Vapor and displays these images on
IMD website for the benefit of its own regional weather
forecasting centers as well as to other users.
• The following quantitative products are derived for use in
NWP and conventional forecasting :
1. The CMV and WVW s --- 4 times a day (sent on GTS
also)
2. Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) ---- 8 Times a
day

3. Quantitative Precipitation Estimates --- 8 Times a day

4. Cloud Top Temperatures ---- every hour

5. GPS derived Integrated Precipitable Water Vapor

(IPWV)from 5 stations----- every hour
 Future Plans:
• INSAT-3D satellite will be launched in
May,2009 . This satellite has a 6-channel
Imager and a 19 –channel sounder.
With the launch of this satellite the
following products will be available for
forecasting as well as for NWP models:
• Images in 6- channels and their
composites –every half hour
• OLR derived from two channels – every half hour
• Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE)- hourly
• Multichannel Sea Surface Temperature– 3 hourly
• Cloud Motion Vectors and Water Vapor Winds--- 3 hourly
• Upper Tropospheric Humidity(UTH) – hourly
• Vertical profiles of Temperature, Humidity and Ozone--- every 6
hours
• Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from CCD data
--- 3 times a day
• Advanced Dvorak Techniques (ADT) derived center and Intensity
(Objective technique)--- every hour in case of a Cyclone.
• Snow cover --- daily
• Fog ---- day and night time fog whenever occurs.
• Hydro-Estimator- Hourly
----------------------------------

The addition of 50 nos. GPS based stations in

Indian network will provide hourly observations of
Integrated Precipitable Water Vapour (IPWV) for
use in severe weather and NWP.
The installation of Polar orbiting NOAA/MODIS
/Metop ground receiving and processing systems at
New Delhi , Chennai and Guawahati will provide the
following Products for each pass for use in
conventional forecasting and NWP:
• Temperature , humidity , Ozone and pressure profiles
• Total Ozone
• Sea Surface Temperatures
• Vegetation Index
• Precipitable water and stability indices
• Images in all channels of NOAA/MODIS and Metop satellites
• Aerosol Products
• Cloud Top Temperatures and pressure
• Fog
• surface emissivity
The following products will be available when
Oceansat-2 and Megha-Tropiques (polar orbiting
satellites) are launched by ISRO in 2009:

• Sea Surface winds from scatterometer

• Vertical profile of Humidity
• Top of Atmosphere Radiative flux
• Rain over oceans
• Integrated water vapour
• Liquid water in clouds
• Convective rain areas over land and sea
• Ice at cloud tops
• Vertical profiles of radio refractive temperatures
derived from Radio-Occultation method
 NWP-Development Areas
Scientific Operational
Impact of new Data Model Validation

Impact of new Location Specific

assimilation Forecast
technique
Sensitivity studies Various Operational
with various physics Applications
options
Model resolution
Immediate Short-range Forecasting Strategy
at IMD HQ

Mesoscale Assimilation of available Observations and

generation of high-resolution analysis for RSMC domain
Horizontal grid-spacing: 27 km
Vertical resolution: 50 eta levels
Time Interval: 6 hourly cold-start or cycling
Production of high-resolution double nested
27 km for RSMC and 9 km for Indian domain respectively
6 hourly cycle
3 days forecast length
Triple nested (27, 9 and 3 km) model forecast for
specific event or expeditions (e.g. Commonwealth Game
2010)
Preparation of IC(FG)&BC for the RMC-MC level meso-
model setup after nesting down the forecast.
Proposed triple nesting WRF model (27, 9, 3 km)
with flexible fixing of inner most domain
 Immediate Short-range Forecasting
Strategy at RMC and MC in IMD

 RMC-MC:
Very high-resolution (~3km) double nest
operational model forecast generation for 2 days
Strom scale model with ~ 1km resolution for 24
hours forecast
3 hourly cycle for specific event

Assimilation of region specific special

observations e.g. DWR
 Present Mesoscale Readiness
IMD HQ:
Mesoscale Models MM5 and WRF are running for RSMC and
Indian Domains respectively
• GFS forecast as its Initial and Boundary Condition
• 45 km horizontal resolution & 27 vertical levels
• 3 day forecast with 12 hourly cycle
Mesoscale assimilation for conventional observations
Assimilation experiments with DWR observations have
been tested successfully (with ADAS only)

RMC & MC:

Trained man-power is established for mesoscale modeling
at most of the places
Trial experiments (not operational) are already
accomplished at a few places
 Ongoing Projects

•FDP Cyclone
•FDP Fog
•Extended Range forecast and Climate monitoring
•Storm Project
•Commonwealth Games
•Dedicated weather channel
 Future Plan
Operational implementation of assimilation-forecast system
for mesoscale and storm scale models with conventional data
• HQ – 2 months after IBM installation
• RMC and MC – 1 months after the acquisition of HPC
Systems
Doppler Weather Radar data assimilation for available 4 (N)
stations – 6 months
Implementation of Radiance Data Assimilation
• NOAA satellite (AMSU & HIRS) – 6 months – 1 year
• INSAT-3D - after development of suitable Radiative
Transfer Model
GPS refractivity assimilation for ground based stations and
for satellite (e.g. CHAMP and COSMIC) – 6 months – 1 year
 Near Future Plan I : Now-casting
and Mesoscale Forecasting
• Real-time radar (DWR) mosaic creation
• Operation of ARPS model at 3 km
resolution with assimilation of DWR data
for local severe weather
• City forecast for Delhi as required for the
Commonwealth Games 2010
• Implementation of dynamical Fog
prediction model for visibility forecasting
at the major airports of India.
 Near Future Plan II:Regional Models
• WRF model with 3 nested domains (at the resolution of 27
km, 9 km and 3 km). The nested model at the 3 km
resolution would be operated at the Regional/State Met
Centres at 6 hours interval with 3 DVAR data assimilation.
• MM5 model with 2 nested domains (at the resolution of 27
km and 9 km) at 12 hours interval with 3 DVAR data
assimilation.
• For Cyclone Track Prediction, 72 hours forecast from
Quasi Lagrangian Model (QLM) at 40 km resolution at six
hours interval; WRF (NMM) at 27 km resolution with
assimilation package of Grid Statistical Interpolation (GSI).
• For Cyclone track and intensity prediction: multimodel
ensemble technique and application of dynamical
statistical approach for 72 hours forecasts, forecast
would be updated at 12 hours interval.
Near Future Plan III: Global Models

• Global model for Medium range Forecasting

• NCEP Decoding System / MFI CIPS interface.
• Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS)
with GSI (Grid Statistical Interpolation).
• Global Forecast System (GFS) T-382
• Multimodel Ensemble based district level
forecasts