Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Monte-Carlo (Reserves)
Decision Trees (EMV)
Scenario Planning
Portfolio Theory (investment)
Option theory (Development)
Analytic hierarchy process
Preference theory (Cost of information)
Multi-stage Decision Process
R
P GOVERNMENT TAKE E
R (Bonus, price discounts royalty, taxes) N
G O T
R F
O I
S T CONTRACTOR TAKE
S
ENTITELEMENTS
R
CONTRACTOR
OPERATING COSTS
E
V C
E O
N DEVELOPMENT COSTS
S
U
E T
S S
EXPLORATION COSTS
Global competitive framework
Competition between
countries
Competition between
companies
Competition between
projects within
companies
Competition with other
energy resources
Competition with other
industries
Capital Market
Key Factor effecting Fiscal Regime
Figure xx: Take at different oil prices Figure xxx: GT at different cost structures
100%
90%
78% 83%
80% 95%
80% 91%
72% 80% 89%
70% 87%
83% 83%
Interest/gambling
Economic
Trade
Laws
Time
Types of taxation Structures
Regressive Vs Progressive
Petroleum Fiscal
Petroleum Fiscal Systems
Systems
Concession
Concession Production Sharing
Production Sharing Service
Service
Agreements
Agreements Agreements
Agreements Agreements
Agreements
Pure
Pure Risk
Risk Hybrid
Hybrid
Service
Service Service
Service
Greatest Threat to Life: Food Scarcity
We are eating oil!!!!!
from planting, irrigation, feeding and harvesting,
through to processing, distribution and packaging.
In addition, fossil fuels are essential in the
construction and the repair of equipment and
infrastructure needed to facilitate this industry,
including farm machinery, processing facilities,
storage, ships, trucks and roads
Pesticides (Gas)
Ownership
Culture &
Rules
Choice
Local
Enterprises
People
Social Ecological
Process Interactions Process
Demography Primary
Technology
Human Land use Natural production
Land cover
Economy Systems Production Systems Populations
Institutions انسانى قوانين Consumption فطرى قوانين Organic matter
Culture Disposal Nutrients
Information Disturbances
فطرى اور انسانى
قوانين كا ربط
External Biological, Geological
& Physical Conditions
Biggest tragedy of our time is that modern priests (economists) do
not know that something must be physically possible before it can be
economically possible.
Why so much automation?
Oil is not priced rightly
ت َل َع َّل ُك
( ْمHashar ِ ِ اآل َياهّللا م ُ
ك َ
ل هّللا ُني َ ب ي ُ ك َ ِ ل َ
ذ َ ك َ و ف ْ َ ع ْ
ل ا ل ْ ُ ق َون ُ ق ِ ف َّ ن ي ا اذ َ م ُ ك َ ْ َ
ن و ُ ل َ أ س َّ ي و
(Baqra 279)
يل
ار َج َه َّن َم َف ُت ْك َوى ِب َها
ب س
م ْ ك
ِي
ِن
ف
م َ
ن
ا ه
َ
ِي
ن
اءُ
ِّ و
ف
ُ
ِ7) ِ ُ َ ُ ُ ب َّ منَ َ أْلهّللا َ ِ ُ ْورس َولِ ِه
ي ا
َ
[ ق
ا
ِ
ن ه
ِ
ب
ف
َ َ غ
ن
الر
ي
ي
ِّ َ
ل ع
ال
ا
و
ى
َ
م
َن
مَ
ة
ِّ
َ
ح
ِض
ر
ي ْ َّ ب
ٍ َ ي ح
ف
َ ة
ر
ِ ً
(Baqra
م
ْ
ل ا
و
َ
ل
ح َ
و
و
َ
ُوي َ ب
ِ
َب
َ
د ْ
ا ع
وَ
ه
نُ
ِيم
ذ
ذي
َ
َون
219) ْ ْ ال
أ
ُ
ب
ل َ َ
ف َ أ
ْ
ل
ك ُ ْ
ا
ب
َون
اٍ
ي
َ
و ُ َ
ل
ا ُ
ز
ع
َ
ذ َ
هّللا
اَل
ف
ع
ْ ِ
ن
ت
ب
ك
َ
َون ي
ي
ْ
َ
م
ْ
ُم
َّ
ل
ر ك
ُ
ه َّ َ ل
َين
كَّ
ر
ن
ْ
َ
ف
ِ
ذ
ح
ش ِّ ِ َ
إ َ
ت
ل َ َ
ف
ا
َ
ت ب
َ
و َ
أ َ
ف
َ
ِ stop taking usury, then beٍ ready forَ ْ َ َ ْ ُ َ ْ َ )34( َ ِ war ْ َ
But
Allah
They if
inask you has do
you not
allowed
how َ
much business theynot should and spend; forbidden Say: "What usury is
“…
with ا مَ order
ْ
ا
Allah و ُ ق و ُ
ذ
and
َ
ف that
م
ْ ُ
ك His ِس ُ
wealth
ف ن أل م
Messenger ْ ُ
ت ز ْ may
ن َ َ
ك ا م َ ا َذَ ه become
م ْ ه
ُ ر
ُ و ه
ُ ُ
ظ confined
و َ مْ ه
ُ ب
ُ نو ج
ُ to
و َ the
م
ْ ه
ُ ه ُ ا ب َ ج
ِ
beyond
rich
(Baqra 275) amongst your needs."
you”. Thus Allah makes clear to you His
revelations: In order that you (Tauba may ponder. 34-35)(Baqraَون 219) ُكن ُت ْم َت ْك ِن ُز
Economics: A life blood system of Society
Individual
Distribution
(Arteries)
State
Collection &
Re-distribution
(Veins)
Lifecycle is no more sustainable
100%
Stacked presentation of work done over time in
Wood
United States by labor, Domesticated animals, Fuels
80% as a percentage of Total Horsepower in the Economy
Labor
6000 products
60% Oil is capitalism's crack cocaine
La (Fertilizers &
bo pesticides!!!!)
40% r
Energy is
Fuel
Domesticated now
20% Animals life blood of
economy
Animals
0%
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970
World oil & Gas Outlook
Major problem of Humanity:
Operating under incompatible Systems
Biology/nature
Mechanics/cancer
“Organisations in the West with money to invest, especially those which like to
consider themselves as being ethical, might have rather more to learn from Islam
than is generally acknowledged. By applying the Islamic approach, a lot of human
misery could have been avoided. Wayne A.M. Visser and Alastair McIntosh
http://www.che.ac.uk/publications/usury.htm
Why so much short-term focus?
Year Production Normal value of Weight of future Quantity Today's Value
(Kgs/year) production @ use @10% required for of future
$ 10/kg future) Production
1 2 3 4 5 (2x4) 6(3x4)
1 100 1,000 1.000 100 1,000
5 100 1,000 0.636 64 636
10 100 1,000 0.361 36 361
15 100 1,000 0.205 20 205
20 100 1,000 0.116 12 116
25 100 1,000 0.066 7 66
30 100 1,000 0.037 4 37
35 100 1,000 0.021 2 21
40 100 1,000 0.012 1 12
45 100 1,000 0.007 1 7
50 100 1,000 0.004 0 4
Islamic method
Kgs/Value in Kgs in Kgs in Value of Value of
year 1 & 50 year 1 year 50 year 1 year 50
are same
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Ten_fundamental_principles_of_net_energy
E & P B u s in e s s
G a s / o il S e r v ic e JV O p e ra to r G o v t/s ta te S h a r e h o ld e r s / M a rk e t
c o m p a n ie s C o m p a n ie s P a rtn e rs C om pany B anks F o rc e s
B lo c k
A sset
P ro s p e c t E x p lo re D r il l D e v e lo p O p e r a te A bandon
Foundation of Decision Sciences:
Who benefits? Who Suffers?
To Feed To
Tocontrol
control
Do
ate
min
mi n
ate
Do
To Serve To live
s
Dominates
To
ToRule
Rule To
Toserve
serve
Range of Project Cost Variations
+40
+30
+20
+10
-10
-20
-30
-40
Reserves Development Stages