WMO Into a warming world UNEP

R K Pachauri
Chairman, IPCC
Director-General, TERI

State of the World Symposium

Washington
15th January 2009

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The Intergovernmental panel
on climate change:

Science at the service

of policy-making

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 Writing and review process
of the IPCC assessment reports
1. Experts review the first draft of the report

2. Governments and experts review the second draft of

the report and the draft Summary for Policymakers

3. Governments review word-by-word the revised draft

Summary for Policymakers

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The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
(2007)

+2500 scientific expert reviewers

800 contributing authors
450 lead authors
+130 countries

4
References to the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report in the Bali Action Plan (December 2007)
“Responding to the findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that warming of the
climate system is unequivocal, and that delay in reducing emissions
significantly constrains opportunities to achieve lower stabilization
levels and increases the risk of more severe climate change impacts”

“[…] emphasizing the urgency to address climate change as indicated

in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change”

“[…] urgent and immediate needs of developing countries that are

particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change,
especially the least developed countries and small island developing
States, and further taking into account the needs of countries in Africa
affected by drought, desertification and floods”

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 Key findings of the IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report:

1. “Warming of the climate

system is unequivocal”

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 Observed changes

Global average
temperature

Global average
sea level

Northern hemisphere
snow cover

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 Global temperature change

Models using only

natural forcing
Temperature anomaly

1 Models using both

natural and
anthropogenic forcing
0.5
Observations

1900 1950 2000

Year

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The frequency of heavy precipitation events has
increased over most land areas
- Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005:
1 million people lost their homes

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Heat waves have become more frequent
over most land areas
- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths
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Intense tropical cyclone activity has increased
in the North Atlantic since about 1970
- Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate

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More intense and longer droughts have been
observed over wider areas since the 1970s,
particularly in the tropics and subtropics

Photo credit: GoodPlanet

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 Key findings of the IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report:

2. “Continued GHG emissions [...] would

induce many changes in the global climate
system during the 21st century that would
very likely be larger than those observed
during the 20th century”

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 Carbon dioxide emissions

Global atmospheric
concentrations of

Carbon Dioxide (ppm)

Radiative Forcing (Wm-2)

greenhouse gases (GHG)
increased markedly as a
result of human activities,
with an increase
of 70% in 1970-2004

U.S. emissions have risen by

14.7% in 1990-2006*
10000 5000 0
Time (before 2005)
*Source: EPA, 2008 14
Projected surface temperature changes
(2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 (oC)

Continued emissions would lead to further warming

of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century
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 Examples of impacts associated with
global average temperature change relative to 1980-1999
o
0 1 2 3 4 5 C
Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes
WATER Decreasing water availability an d increasing drought in mid -latitudes and semi -arid low latitudes
Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress
Increased coral bleaching Most corals bleached Widespread coral mortality
Terrestrial biosphere tends towards a net carbon source as:
ECO - 15% 40% of ecosystems affected
SYSTEMS
Increasing species range shifts and wildfire risk
Ecosystem changes due to weakening of the meridional
overturning circulation
Complex, local ised negative impacts on small holders, subsistence farmers and fishers
Tendencies for cereal productivity Productivity of all cereals
FOOD to decrease in low latitudes decreases in low latitudes
Tendencies for some ce real productivity Cereal productivity to decrease in
to increase at mid - to high latitudes some regions
Increased damage from floods and storms
COASTS About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost
Millions more people experience coastal flo oding each year
Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio -respiratory, infectious diseases
HEALTH Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, droughts
Changed distribution of some disease vectors
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 Impacts on North America
Warming in western mountains is projected to
cause decreased snowpack and reduced summer
flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated
water resources

Increased number, intensity and duration of

heatwaves will have potential for adverse
health impacts

Coastal communities and habitats will be

increasingly stressed by climate change impacts
interacting with development and pollution

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Expected impacts on poor regions
People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:
 120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia
 12 to 81 million in Latin America
 75 to 250 million in Africa

Possible yield reduction in agriculture:

30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia
30% by 2080 in Latin America
50% by 2020 in some African countries

Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa

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 Key findings of the IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report:

3. “Neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all

climate change impacts; however, they can
complement each other and together can significantly
reduce the risks of climate change”

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 Stabilisation scenarios

Global mean Stabilization

Year CO2 needs
temp. increase level
(ppm CO2-eq) to peak
(ºC)

2.0 – 2.4 445 – 490 2000 – 2015

2.4 – 2.8 490 – 535 2000 – 2020
2.8 – 3.2 535 – 590 2010 – 2030
3.2 – 4.0 590 – 710 2020 – 2060

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 Costs of mitigation in 2030
Stabilisation Range of GDP Reduction of
levels reduction average annual
(ppm CO2-eq) (%) GDP growth rates
(percentage pts)

445 - 535 <3 < 0.12

535 - 590 0.2 – 2.5 < 0.1
590 - 710 -0.6 – 1.2 < 0.06

Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain

to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030
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 Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth
(for stabilisation scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq)

GDP

Cost of mitigation
GDP without in 2030: max 3%
mitigation of global GDP

Mitigation would
GDP with postpone GDP
stringent growth by one year
at most over the
mitigation medium term
Current 2030 Time

Schematic graph 22
 Co-benefits of mitigation
 Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution

 Increased energy security

 More rural employment

 Increased agricultural production and reduced

pressure on natural ecosystems

Co-benefits provide the opportunity for

no-regrets policies and reduce mitigation costs

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 Key findings of the IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report:

4. “There is substantial […] potential for

the mitigation of global GHG emissions
over the coming decades that could […]
reduce emissions below current levels”

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 All stabilisation levels assessed
can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio
of technologies that are currently available or
expected to be commercialised
in coming decades

This assumes appropriate and

effective incentives are in place for
their development, acquisition,
deployment and diffusion

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Key mitigation instruments,
policies & practices
Research, development and demonstration

Appropriate energy infrastructure investments

Regulations and standards

Taxes and charges

Change in lifestyles & consumption patterns

Effective carbon-price signal

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 Barack Obama’s
New Energy for America plan (2008)

Create 5 million new green jobs by investing

$150 billion over the next 10 years
Ensure 10% of electricity comes from renewable
sources by 2012, and 25% by 2025
Get 1 million hybrid cars on the road by 2015

Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program

to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050

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 The need for US involvement
US action on mitigation would:

 enable the achievement of global

stabilisation targets

 ensure US competitiveness in a world

market dominated by low-carbon products

 re-establish confidence in US leadership

on critical global issues

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Man did not weave the web of life,
he is merely a strand in it.
Whatever he does to the web,
he does to himself.

Chief Seattle, 1854

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