Clean Energy Development

Outlook and Polices Review in

China

By Li Junfeng
December 4, 2009

21/12/8 1
能源研究所 的情况
About Energy Research Institute

 隶属于国家发改委管理的  Non-profit research

organization that affiliated to
事业单位 NDRC
 从事宏观能源政策研究  Pursue energy policy study
 下设 6 个研究中心
 6 divisions
 Energy economic and energy
 能源经济与战略 strategy
 Energy conservation and energy
 能源节约与效率
efficiency
 可再生能源
 Center for Renewable Energy
Development
 能源环境与气候变化  Energy environment and climate
change
 能源系统与市场分析  Energy system and market
 CDM 管理中心
analysis
 CDM project management

21/12/8 2
内容 Content

 Global Renewable Energy Policy Framework

 Global Renewable Energy Development status
and future trend
 Evolution of China’s Renewable Energy policy
 China Renewable Energy Strategy and planning
targets
 Achievements so far for RE in China
 Summary

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 国际可再生能源的进展
International RE developing status

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全球可再生能源指标
Selected indicators for global REs
SELECTED INDICATORS 2005 2006 2007 (estimated)

Investment in new renewable capacity (annual) billion USD 39 55 66 billion USD

Renewables power capacity (existing, excl. large hydro) GW 182 207 235

Renewables power capacity (existing, incl. large hydro) GW 930 970 1010

Wind power capacity (existing) GW 59 74 93

Grid-connected solar PV capacity (existing) GW 3.5 5.1 7.8

Solar PV production (annual) GW 1.8 2.5 3.8

Solar hot water capacity (existing) GWth 88 105 128
Ethanol production (annual) billion liters 33 38 44
Biodiesel production (annual) billion liters 3.9 6 8
Countries with policy targets 52 63 countries

States/provinces/countries with feed-in policies 41 47 states/provinces/countries

States/provinces/countries with RPS policies 38 44 states/provinces/countries

States/provinces/countries with biofuels mandates 38 51 states/provinces/countries

Source: Renewable Energy Policy Network (REN21), www.ren21.net

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全球领先的几个国家
Top 5 countries
TOP FIVE COUNTRIES #1 #2 #3 #4 #5

Annual amounts or capacity additions in 2006

Annual investment Germany China United States Spain Japan

Wind power United States Germany India Spain China

Solar PV (grid-connected) Germany Japan United States Spain South Korea

Solar hot water China Germany Turkey India Austria

Ethanol production United States Brazil China Germany Spain

Biodiesel production Germany United States France Italy Czech Republic

Renewables power capacity China Germany United States Spain India

Large hydro United States China Brazil Canada Japan/Russia

Small hydro China Japan United States Italy Brazil

Wind power Germany Spain/United States India Denmark

Biomass power United States Brazil Philippines Germany/Sweden/Finland

Geothermal power United States Philippines Mexico Indonesia/Italy

Solar PV (grid-connected) Germany Japan United States Spain Netherlands/Italy

Solar hot water China Turkey Germany Japan Israel

Source: Renewable Energy Policy Network (REN21), www.ren21.net

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全球可再生能源发展特点
Summary for global RE status
 各国政府高度重视发展可再  High attention to develop RE
生能源 from government
 技术日趋成熟，发展速度加  Great improvements in RE
快 technology
 可再生能源技术研发和装备  Continuous cost reduction in
制造取得重大进展，成本持 pace of technology
续下降 improvement
 规模不断扩大，显现度提高  Scale-up development in the
 投资主体增加、投资规模扩 market, increasing role in the
大 energy system
 政策扶持仍然是可再生能源  More participants, investment
发展的主要动力 increased significantly
 Government support remain
one of the major drives

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欧盟 2010 年政府设定的目标
EU-25 RE electricity target by 2010
EU-25 21.0%
AU 78.0%
SW 60.0%
LT 49.3%
PO 39.0%
S LW 33.6% S e le cte d RE ta rge ts in the na tiona l
FI 31.5%
SL 31.0% prima ry e ne rgy for 2010:
ES 29.4%
DN 29.0%
IT 25.0%
FR 21.0%
GR 20.1% EU 25 12% CZ 5-6%
IR 13.2%
DE 12.5% LT 12% DE 4%
GBR 10.0%
NE 9.0% PO 7.5% FR 7%
CZ 8.0%
PO 7.5% LA 6% ES 21%
LT 7.0%
CP 6.0%
BE 6.0%
LX 5.7% Baselin (1997)
ET 5.1% 基准线(1997年实际水平) 2020年前新增目标
Increased target prior to 2010
MT 5.0%
HU 3.6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Target of the RE power in the entire power mix

（ Resource ： World RE outlook 2006, REN21 ）

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欧盟 27 国 2020 年发展目标
EU-27 RE targets by 2020

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美国 2025 年目标
USA 25X’25 RE Vision

 2025 年，在不影响食物，饲料及纤维供应安
全的前提下，农业、蓄牧业、林业部门将满足
美国整体能源需求的 25%
 By the year 2025, America’s farms, ranches and
forests will provide 25 percent of the total energy
consumed in the U.S. while continuing to produce
safe, abundant and affordable food, feed and fiber.

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可再生能源技术特点和成本
Renewables Technologies—Characteristics and Costs
Typical Energy Costs
Technology Typical Characteristics
(cents/kWh)
1. Power Generation
Large hydro Plant size: 10 MW–18,000 MW 3–4
Small hydro Plant size: 1–10 MW 4–7
Turbine size: 1–3 MW
On-shore wind 5–8
Blade diameter: 60–100 meters
Turbine size: 1.5–5 MW (future)
Off-shore wind 8–12
Blade diameter: 70–125 meters
Biomass power Plant size: 1–20 MW 5–12
Plant size: 1–100 MW; Types: binary, single-
Geothermal power 4–7
and double-flash, natural steam
Cell type and efficiency: single-crystal 17%;
Solar PV (module) –––
polycrystalline 15%; thin film 10–12%
Rooftop solar PV Peak capacity: 2–5 kWp 20–40
Concentrating solar Plant size: 1–100 MW; Types: tower, dish,
12–18 (trough)
thermal power (CSP) trough

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可再生能源技术特点和成本
Renewable Technologies—Characteristics and Costs
Typical Energy Costs
Technology Typical Characteristics
(cents/kWh)
2. Hot Water/Heating/Cooling
Biomass heat Plant size: 1–20 MW 1–6
Solar hot water/heating Size: 2–5 m2; Types: evacuated tube/flat–plate 2–25
Geothermal heating/cooling Plant capacity: 1–10 MW; Types: heat pumps, direct use, 0.5–2
chillers
3.Biofuels
Ethanol Feedstocks: sugar cane, sugar beets, corn, cassava, 25–30 cents/liter (sugar)
sorghum, wheat (and cellulose in the future) 40-50 cents/liter (corn)
(gasoline equivalent)
Biodiesel Feedstocks: soy, rapeseed, mustard seed, palm, 40–80 cents/liter
jatropha, or waste vegetable oils (diesel equivalent)
4. Rural (off-grid) Energy
Mini-hydro Plant capacity: 100–1000 kW 5–10
Micro-hydro Plant capacity: 1–100 kW 7–20
Pico-hydro Plant capacity: 0.1–1 kW 20–40
Biogas digester Digester size: 6–8 m3 n/a
Biomass gasifier Size: 20–5000 kW 8–12
Small wind turbine Turbine size: 3–100 kW 15–25
Household wind turbine Turbine size: 0.1–3 kW 15–35
Village-scale mini-grid System size: 10–1000 kW 25–100
Solar home system System size: 20–100 W 40–60

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全球可再生能源技术不断进步
Continuous cost reduction following the technology
improvement
160 (美分/kWh)
Us cent/kWh

140
光伏发电
Solar PV
120
Solar thermal power
太阳热发电
generation
100
风电
Wind power
80

60

40

20

Year
(年)
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050

Cost reduction trend of major RE power

(Resource: Selected roadmaps from industrialized countries)

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世界可再生能源技术增长速度
World RE growth rate

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世界可再生能源投资增长
World RE investment growth
55 Bil US$ 52.2
10亿美元
50

45

40 39.0

35

30
29.3

25 23.1

20 18.6 19.4

15 14.0
11.6
8.9 9.7
10 7.2 7.9
5

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
World investment trend on RE
(Resource: Renewable Energy Network 21-REN21)

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世界可再生能源投资分布及趋势（ 10 亿美元）
World RE investment annually (bil. US$)

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太阳能与风电发展进程对比
Comparison of global solar power and wind power
全球太阳电池年增长率和累计用量（ GWp ） Global solar PV cells
年 Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
年产量
Annual 0.089 0.126 0.155 0.201 0.287 0.391 0.561 0.744 1.2 1.76 2.47 3.73
production
累计用量
0.665 0.791 0.946 1.147 1.435 1.825 2.387 3.131 4.331 6.09 8.56 12.3
Accumulated
年增长率
Growth rate 　 42% 23% 30% 43% 36% 43% 33% 61% 47% 40% 51%
（%）

全球风力发电统计数据（ GW ） Global wind power market

年产量
Annual 1.28 1.53 2.52 3.44 3.76 6.5 7.27 8.17 8.21 11.53 15.2 20.07
production
累计用量
6.1 7.6 10.2 13.6 17.4 23.9 31.1 39.3 47.6 59.1 74.1 94.1
Accumulated
年增长率
Growth rate 　 20% 65% 37% 9% 73% 12% 12% 0.5% 40% 32% 32%
（%）

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促进可再生能源发展的政策体系
Global RE promotion systems
 强制性市场份额  Mandated market share
 固定电价  Feed-in tariff
 可再生能源配额制  Renewable portfolio standard
 竞争性项目招标  Competitive bidding
 其它促进措施  Other incentives
 资本金补助  Capital subsidies, grants, or rebates
 投资补贴或税收抵扣  Investment excise or other tax
 税收优惠（销售税、能 credits
源税、消费税、增值税  Sales tax, energy tax, excise tax, or
减免） VAT reduction
 可交易的证书  Tradable renewable energy
 净电量 certificates
 公共投资，贷款或融资  Net metering
优惠  Public investment, loans, or
financing

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促进可再生能源发展的政策体系
Global RE promotion systems
 强制性市场份额：通常  Mandated Market Share
通过立法规定，要求满 (MMS) ： Legal
足一定的可再生能源生 obligation to meet a target
产目标，并建立一定的 of energy supply from
机制分摊成本 renewable sources with
 通常包括三种方式：配 the incremental cost being
额制、固定电价、竞争 passed onto the consumer
性招标 in an equitable way.
 Usually three types:
 Renewable Portfolio
Standard (RPS)
 Feed in tariff
 Public competitive bidding

21/12/8 19
促进可再生能源发展的政策体系
Global RE promotion systems
 可再生能源配额制：  Renewable Portfolio
 事先确定一定的来自可再 Standard (RPS) ：
生能源的数量目标，通常  A quantity based policy
包括建立绿色电力交易证 instrument that requires that
书体系，证书具有价值， an amount of electricity is
可以交易 supplied by renewable
sources. Usually involves
the creation of green energy
certificates which have a
value in addition to the
energy produced, and can
be traded.

21/12/8 20
促进可再生能源发展的政策体系
Global RE promotion systems
 Feed in Law or Tariff: A price-
 固定电价制度：对某 based policy that sets a price to
种可再生能源发电给 be paid for renewable
energy(RE). The actual
予固定统一的电价政 quantity of RE obtained from
策，实际可能发展的 RE sources is determined by
the market.
数量取决于市场  Competitive Tendering
Mechanisms: Use of
 竞争性招标：政府确 government regulated
定一定数量可再生能 competitive bidding processes
to meet a target through the
源项目的招标规则， development of long term
与开发商签署长期购 power purchase agreements
with renewable energy
电协议 suppliers.

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共同要求
Common Requirements of three Systems
 确定明确的发展目标，可包  Objectives to be clearly defined and may
括 include:
 Increasing the RE market share
 增加可再生能源的市场份额（经 (economically)
济性）  Development of specific RE technologies
 发展具体的可再生能源技术  Environment objectives
 环境性目标  Social development objectives
 社会发展目标  Energy security
 能源安全性  Definition of RE eligibility
 确定可再生能源的“合格性 requirements, e.g .technology, grid size
”要求，如技术种类、电网  Suitable legislation/supporting
规模等 regulatory framework
 合适的立法 / 管理框架  Defining who carries obligation?
 确定承担责任的主体  Who meets cost?
 确定成本分摊方式  Establishment of National and/or
Provincial administration body
 建立国家级 / 省级的管理主体

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支持措施
Supporting Mechanisms
 确保可再生能源项目可  Guaranteed grid access for
以并网 RE developers
 规划的程序有利于可再  Streamlined planning
生能源项目的建设 procedures favourable to
 有利于发展可再生能源 RE installations
的融资机制，如化石能  Funding mechanisms, eg.
源税收、系统效益收费 Levy on fossil energy,
、绿色证书交易机制 system benefit charge,
 长期购电协议 green certificate trading
 Long term power purchase
agreements

21/12/8 23
发达国家的可再生能源政策
Developed countries policy measures
Sales tax,
Capital Tradable Public
Feed- Renewable Investment energy tax, Public
Country subsidies, renewable Net investment,
in portfolio or other tax excise tax, competitive
grants, or energy metering loans, or
tariff standard credits or VAT bidding
rebates certificates financing
reduction

Australia X X X X
Austria X X X X X
Belgium X X X X X
Canada (*) (*) X X X (*) X (*)
Croatia X X X
Cyprus X X
Czech Rep. X X X X X X
Denmark X X X X
Estonia X X
Finland X X X
France X X X X X X X
Germany X X X X X
Greece X X X
Hungary X X X X
Ireland X X X X X
Italy X X X X X X
Israel X
Japan (*) X X X X X
Korea X X X X X

21/12/8 24
发达国家的可再生能源政策
Developed countries policy measures
Sales tax,
Capital Tradable Energy Public
Feed- Renewable Investment energy tax, Public
subsidies, renewable production Net investment,
Country in portfolio or other tax excise tax, competitive
grants, or energy payments or metering loans, or
tariff standard credits or VAT bidding
rebates certificates tax credits financing
reduction
Latvia X X
Lithuania X X X X
Luxembourg X X X
Malta X X
Netherlands X X X X X
New Zealand X X
Norway X X X X
Poland X X X X X
Portugal X X X X
Romania X
Slovak Rep. X X X
Slovenia X
Spain X X X X
Sweden X X X X X X
Switzerland X
UK X X X X
United States (*) (*) X X (*) (*) X (*) (*) (*)

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发展中国家的可再生能源政策
Developing countries policy measures
Capital Sales tax,
Tradable Energy Public
Feed- Renewable subsidies Investment energy tax, Public
renewable production Net investment,
Country in portfolio , grants, or other excise tax, competitive
energy payments or metering loans, or
tariff standard or tax credits or VAT bidding
certificates tax credits financing
rebates reduction

Algeria X X X X
Argentina X X (*) X
Brazil X X X
Cambodia X
Chile X
China X X X X X X
Costa Rica X
Ecuador X X
Guatemala X X
Honduras X X
India (*) (*) X X X X X
Indonesia X
Mexico X X
Morocco X
Nicaragua X X X
Panama X
Philippines X X X
Sri Lanka X
Thailand X X X X
Tunisia X X
Turkey X X

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2050 能源减排技术潜力分析
Potential for energy technologies in reducing GHG

IEA, Energy Technology Perspective, 2008

21/12/8 27
全球 2010-2050 平均每年发电新增容量
Increased power generation capacity within 2010-2050

IEA, Energy Technology Perspective, 2008

21/12/8 28
Summary

 RE has been grown fast

 RE has been highlighted by governments across
the world
 Policy support will continue
 Successful experiences

21/12/8 29
 中国制定可再生能源战略的背景
Background for China to formulate the
RE strategy

21/12/8 30
 中国能源一次能源消费结构变化情况
Energy mix evolution
Gas

Hydro etc REs

Gas

Oil
Coal
Hydro etc REs Oil
Gas
Coal

Oil
Coal

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 中国和世界一次商品能源消费结构
Energy mix in 2007
水电、核电
水电、核电 和风 REs & Nuclear
天然 和风 REs & Nuclear 电, 10.00% 煤
气, 3.40% 电, 7.50% 炭, 26.00%
Gas Coal

石
油, 18.30% Gas &Oil
Oil 煤
炭, 69.50%
石油、天然
Coal 气, 64.00%

我国 2007 年能源结构 世界 2007 年平均能源结构

Energy mix for China World average level

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能源面临的问题
Problems for energy industry

 Energy Resource deficiency

 Total Limited energy resource,  Environment
10% of the world total
 Low energy per capita, 40% of the
world average
issues
 Shortage of high quality resource  acid rain
for oil and gas
 Low system efficiency
 air pollution due to
 Total energy system efficiency
coal consumption
33%, world average 43%  Greenhouse gas
 Energy intensity per GDP 4 times emission
of USA, 6 times of EU, 10 times
of Japan

21/12/8 33
解决中国能源问题的主要措施
Solutions to the energy challenges
 Increase energy efficiency, to build up the a
energy saving society
 World energy market participation,
particularly the oil and gas, to improve the
energy mix
 Speed up the exploration of indigenous
energy resources, i.e. Renewable energy

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中国的能源状况和政策白皮书
White Book on China Energy Status and Policy
 China Energy White Book (2007.Dec): energy diversification, not
rely on coal, and consider RE as one of the important energy
component.
 Stress on energy conservation, build upon domestic resource,
diversified energy, rely on technology, protect environment, and
highlight international collaboration, to achieve a stable,
economic, clean and safe energy supplying system, and enable
the sustainable energy development
 Energy development principles:
 develop coal in order,
 actively develop electricity,
 speed up exploration oil & gas,
 Encourage coal mine gas,
 Greatly promote RE
 Actively develop nuclear
 To ensure multiple-energy and stable supply

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 可再生能源的政策体系和规划
China’s policy framework and the
planning on REs

21/12/8 36
《可再生能源法》颁布前面临的主要问题
Key challenges faced by RE prior to the law’s release

 没有提高到保障能源安全的  Lack of strategic

战略高度
 缺乏明确的发展目标和切实 consideration for REs
可行的规划措施  No definite targets and
 缺乏足够的经济鼓励政策和 planning
激励机制
 没有行之有效的投融资机制  No appropriate incentives
 成本相对较高，缺乏市场竞 mechanism
争力
 缺乏完备的可再生能源产业
 No effective financing
体系 mechanism
 公众关注不够，没有形成全  No market competitiveness
社会积极参与和支持的局面
 No industrial basis
 No public attention
21/12/8 37
中国可再生能源政策的历史事件
Milestones of the RE policy
 Incorporated into the legislation list at June 2003
 2004 Jun. Bonn Conference, declaration of the RE law and the planning
work
 2005 Feb., release of the China RE Law (CRL)
 2006 Jan. 1st , CRL came into force, 10+ regulations afterwards released to
help enforce the law
 2007 Jun., China National strategy on the Climate Change, Wind, solar
and biomass were prioritized
 2007 Sep., China RE Medium- and Long-term Planning, RE targets
identified
 2007 Dec. White Book on Energy Status and Policy, RE identified as
significant part

21/12/8 38
中国可再生能源战略地位和发展目标
RE Strategic role and targets
 CRL identified the
significance of RE
 Increase the energy
supply
 improve the energy
structure
 ensure the energy
security
 protect the environment

 to achieve the International Forum on RE Legislation

2004. May
sustainable development

21/12/8 39
开发利用可再生能源的重要意义
Significance for developing RE
 落实科学发展观、实现  Requirement for sustainable
可持续发展的要求 development
 全面建设小康社会和社  Indispensable for well-off society
会主义新农村的重要条 building and socialism New
件 Rural Countryside development
 环境保护和减少大气污  Technical options for
染的技术选择 environment protection and GHG
mitigation
 开拓新的经济增长领域
的机会
 Opportunities to pursue new
economic development area
 未来能源安全的重要保  Security for future energy supply
障

21/12/8 40
可再生能源中长期发展目标
Goals of the RE development in long term (by 2020)

 Increase the ratio of RE in the entire energy mix, to

10% by year 2010, 15% by year 2020
 Take advantages of the local RE resources, to tackle
the electricity access issues in remote areas, as well as
the fuel shortage issues in rural households
 Promote the RE technology and industrial
development, by introducing the global advanced
experiences and followed by digestion, innovation
efforts etc, to establish the manufacturing capability
with own intellectual property rights by 2020
21/12/8 41
可再生能源法的核心内容
Major aspects identified by the law

 Establishing national RE
general targets and plan
 Grid connection priorities
 Classifying tariffs for
Renewable Power
 Sharing cost at national level
 Renewable energy special
fund
 Policy on favorable credit and
favorable tax treatment

21/12/8 42
实施的细则
Regulations Progress
 已经颁布 Issued so far
 Regulation and Management Measure of RE power (Jan. 2006

by NDRC)
 Regulation on Renewable Power Pricing and Cost Sharing

(Jan. 2006 by NDRC)

 Guided Catalog of RE industry (Jan. 2006 by NDRC)

 Some national standards (Standard for solar building,

Geothermal heat pump by Ministry of Construction, Standard

for Solar PV power and wind turbines etc by Standardization
Administration of China.)
 Fund earmarked for RE (May 2006, by Ministry of Finance)

 RE surcharge (July 2006, NDRC)

21/12/8 43
实施细则的核心内容
Major points of the new regulations
 Grid must allow the grid connection; mandated to buy all renewable
electricity; all the extra costs will be shared by the final users——avoid
market competition for RE with conventional energies
 Feed in tariff for Biomass
 0.25 Yuan/kWh + local coal fired power price

 Tender price for wind

 Through a tender processing to determine the regional price

standards for wind

 Approval price case by case for other RE projects
 Project payback price for solar PV, geothermal etc.

 National Earmarked Fund for RE development

 Favorable tax regime to support RE development

21/12/8 44
可再生能源的配额
Quota mechanism for RE
 MMS policies will be adopted for non-hydro
renewable power generation according to the
following targets:
 In areas covered by large scale power grids, non-hydro
renewable power generation’s share of total power
generation will reach 1 percent by 2010 and over 3 percent
by 2020.
 Power generators with self-owned installed capacity of over
5 GW will be required to have a non-hydro renewable
energy installed power capacity self-owned that accounts
for 3 percent of their total self-owned capacity by 2010 and
for over 8 percent of their total self-owned capacity by 2020

21/12/8 45
中国可再生能源发展的总目标
General targets for REs
20%

15%
15%

10%
10%
7.5%

5%

0%
2005 2010 2020

Renewable Energy Share in the National Primary Energy Consumption

21/12/8 46
中国可再生能源发展的具体目标
Specific targets

Power targets summary (GW)

　 2005 2010 2020

水电 Hydro 117 190 300

Biomass power 2 5.5 30

Wind power 1.26 5 30

Solar power 0.07 0.3 1.8

21/12/8 47
中国可再生能源发展的具体目标
Specific targets
 Non-grain liquid fuel
 2010: bio-ethanol 2 million tons, bio-diesel 200,000 ton

 2020: bio-ethanol 10 mil. tons, bio-diesel 2mil. Tons

 Solar heat application

 2010, accumulated heat collection area 150 mil. m2; with

the other heat application, totally substitute 30 mil. Tons of

coal equivalent (TCE)
 accumulated heat collection area 300 mil. m2; with the other

heat application, totally substitute 60 mil. tce

21/12/8 48
生物质能开发利用目标
Biomass targets

Year 2010 Year 2020

Biomass power generation 550 3000
(10MW)
Biogas (100million m3) 190 400
Bio-ethanol(10,000 ton) 200 1000
Bio-diesel (10,000 ton) 20 200
Briquette/pellet fuel (10,000 100 5000
ton)

21/12/8 49
生物质发展主要原则
Principles to develop biomass energy
 与促进农村经济发展相结合  Integrate with the efforts to
 与改善农民生活条件相结合 promote the local economy
，提高农村能源的清洁化和 development
现代化水平；  Integrate with the efforts to
 与生态环境保护相结合，通 improve the rural residents’ life
过能源植物生态林的种植改 quality
善自然和生态系统；  Integrate with the efforts to the
 与粮食安全相协调，做到不 ecology protection
与粮争地，不与民争粮，合  No competition with food, arable
理利用劣质土地种植能源作 land, agricultural water etc,
物和植物。 appropriate to harness the degraded
land for plantation of energy crops

21/12/8 50
Summary for China’s experiences

• Strong • Identify the • Promote the

national RE enforcement of
power to the Law
promote RE targets
• Identify RE
• Guide the
• Responsibilit project approval
provincial process
y and government • establish the
obligation • Give clear industrial policy
for various guidance for framework
stakeholders industrial • Establish the
sector incentive policy
framework

21/12/8 51
 中国可再生能源发展情况
China’s RE development

21/12/8 52
可再生能源发展取得成就
Achievements
 可再生能源发展得到了  Extensive and high
广泛的重视 attentions paid on RE
 可再生能源市场规模迅  RE market quickly
速扩大 expanded
 可再生能源投资投入明  Investment substantially
显增加
increased
 可再生能源制造业发展
快速起步
 Industry fast propelled
 可再生能源发展形成了
 Positive international
良好的国际影响 responses

21/12/8 53
可再生能源的推进项目
Programs on REs

 National Township Electrification program

 4.76 bil Yuan (600mil $) for decentralized PV stations in remote areas
(358 mil $ funded by the national debt)
 721 stand-alone PV stations (including 19MW wind-solar hybrid
power stations), and 268 small hydro stations (290MW)
 Providing electricity to 300,000 households (1.3 million populations)
 Rural biogas deployment
 5.5 bil Yuan (665 mil $) funded by national debt
 Small-hydro power (SHP) replacement for traditional fuel
 1bil Yuan (120 mil $) in the western poor regions to develop SHP, to
help farmers not to chop down forests for fuel

21/12/8 54
可再生能源市场规模迅速扩大
Market quickly expanded
 Release of CRL:
milestone of RE
development (End of
2007), RE saw a
unprecedented growth
 Hydro: newly installed
10GW in 2007,
accumulated 148GW,
37% of the economically
viable potential

21/12/8 55
风能发展
Wind power

• Wind: 6GW, exceeding the national wind target

by 2010
21/12/8 56
1995-2007 风电发电装机情况
Wind industry 1995-2007
7000 140%
累计MW 新增MW 年增长率%
accumulated Newly inst. Annual growth rate
2007, 126.2%
6000 (1997, 115.2%) 120%
(2006, 105.6%) 5880

5000 100%
(1996, 107.9%)

4000 80%
(2005, 65.8%) 3280
Average growth rate 52.2% (1995~2007)
3000 60%
我国1995~2007年平均增长52.2% 2599

2000 (1998, 31.8%) (2004, 34.7%) 40%

(2000, 28.4%)
1266 1337

1000 764 20%

468 567 503
400
79 170
91 224 268 34476 98 197
3823 41 54 44 56 68
0 0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
我国各年风能累计装机统计
Accumulated wind power capacity (1995~2007) of China

21/12/8 57
2007 风电发电装机情况
Wind capacity by 2007
6000
Newly installed Cumulative25,000
installed
（MW) Newly installed in 2007 （MW)
5244
22247
5000

截至2007各国累计装机容量(MW)
20,000

4000 3522 Cumulative installed

3287 15,000

3000

10,000
2000
1667

5889 888 5,000

1000 603
434 427
386
3125
0 0

Global newly installed wind power capacity in 2007

Source: GWEC 2008

21/12/8 58
太阳能发展
Solar energy

• Solar water heater: annual production 23 mil m2, accumulated

130 mil m2, 60% of the world
• Solar PV: a record manufacturing capacity 1GW, increased by
600MW, 2nd in the world

21/12/8 59
太阳能热水器发展状况（万平方米）
Solar water heaters (10,000 m2)
14000

12000

10000

8000
Market capacity
6000

4000
Production capacity
2000

0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

产量 保有量

21/12/8 60
 太阳能光伏应用
Solar PV systems

Township Electrification PV Power Station

30KW(Qinghai province)
Roof-grid PV power system 1MW
(International flower garden in ShenZhen city)

21/12/8 61
中国光伏市场发展
China’s PV market
中国光伏年装机和累计装机统计（ KWp ） China’s annual and accumulative capacity for PV

年度 Year 1976 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007

年装机 Newly
0.5 8 70 500 1550 3300 20300 10000 5000 10000 20,000
installed
累计安装
0.5 16.5 200 1780 6630 19,000 45,000 65,000 70,000 80,000 100,000
Accumulated
120000

100000
光伏装机(MW)

80000

60000
年装机
40000
累计安装

20000

0
2000
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2005

2010
公历年

21/12/8 62
因地制宜利用生物质能源
Biogas utilization
顺义大中型养殖场沼气

 生物质能开发利用，也有较大发展，  Biomass: 22 mil household biogas, 3000

其中户用沼气池达到 2200 万多口，大 large biogas, total volume 10 billion m3;
中型沼气设施 3000 多处，沼气使用量 large livestock biogas plant>800
超过 100 亿立方米；其中禽畜养殖场  Gasification pilot plants > 600 in village
800 处
level, to supply fuel for 120,000
 秸秆气化集中供气工程 600 多处，供 households
气 12 万户

户用沼气池
21/12/8 63
可再生能源投资投入明显增加
Investment significantly increased
 《可再生能源法》的实施，初  CRL removes the risk for
步消除了可再生能源投资的风 investment, RE has been a
险，各类投资主体纷纷增加了
对可再生能源产业的投入，主
attractive investment area,
要表现是： participants diversified
 国有大型能源投资公司高调  State-owned energy
介入 companies
 国内外大型装备制造业开始  Domestic & foreign giant
进入 manufacturers
 国内外民营资本开始进入
 Domestic & foreign capital
 国际国内风险投资积极介入
 Venture capital from
domestic and international

21/12/8 64
国内外民营资本开始进入
Private/foreign investment
 国际 : 主要的制造企业或企业集团也  International giant RE
开始进入我国的可再生能源市场
manufacturers:
 我国的一些民营企业也开始大规
模进入可再生能源市场，  major manufacturers: Suzlon (India),
 目前太阳能产业基本上由民营资本 Vestas (Denmark), Gamesa (Spain), GE
所控制 (USA), BP (UK), Siemens (Germany)
 内资民营
 Private investors
 外资如瑞丰、港灯、中电、安
翠能源等  Solar PV dominated by private sector
 Domestic representatives
 Foreign investors
 CLP (HK), Airtricity (Ireland), Roaring
40s (Australia), Gamesa (Spain)

21/12/8 65
国际国内风险投资积极介入
Venture capital
 风险投资和民间资本开始携手介入  VC had played a important role in
可再生能源投资市场
 国内的中金、国外的摩根、美林
the RE market
、摩根斯坦利、高盛、汇丰都已  China Finance; JP Mogen, Mogen Stanly,
进入 HSBC and other commercial banks and VCs
 到 2007 年底，大约有 15 家可再生  15 RE companies listed in New
能源公司（或一些大公司的可再生
能源部门）分别在纽约、伦敦、香 York, London, HK, Singapore, total
港、新加坡和国内等主要股票交易 value >30 billion US$
所上市，总市值超过了 300 亿美元  Sun-tech is successful listed on New York, it
 规模最大的是尚德太阳能公司，
is the first Chinese RE company on the Wales
市值最高时尚德的市值总额高达
120 多亿美元 Street with the highest value of 12 bil. $
 目前还有至少 20 多家企业等待  20 other waiting for listing
和准备上市  China RE concept in New York stock market
 在纽约股票市场形成了中国可再
生能源板块

21/12/8 66
可再生能源制造业发展快速起步
Industry quickly propelled
 RE manufacture industry being forming
 Wind industries in China 100+
 60+ wind turbine assemblers
 Capable to produce MW wind turbines in mass production
(1MW, 1.5MW, 2MW)
 Key components: gearbox, blades, generators
 10+ PV manufacturers with capacity over 100MW
 SWH companies 3000+
 10+ revenue over 1billion RMB
 Attract foreign RE giant players
 GE, Gamesa, Vestas, Suzlon, Repower, Nordex

21/12/8 67
风电机组制造企业
Wind industry
Market share of domestic turbines in annual increased-market growing

Other Sewind Windey CASC- Nordex

1% 1% 2% Acciona 1%
2% Suzlon 60% 55.9%
Dongfang
6%
Electric
Goldwind 7% 41.1%
25%
GE
40%
29.4%
7%
25.0%
Gamesa
17% Sinovel
20%
20%
Vestas
11%
0%
2004 2005 2006 2007
Market share of manufacturer in Market share of domestic turbines in Annual
newly installed capacity (2007) 国产风电机组占国内新增市场份额比例
increased market capacity

21/12/8 68
 中国光伏电池生产企业
Solar PV manufacturers

3 无锡尚德

6 台湾茂迪

9 保定英利

13 晶澳太阳能
14 浙江林洋

16 南京中电
78MW

21/12/8 69
可再生能源的国际合作
Positive international responses

 Beijing International RE Conference (BIREC 2005),

Conference Sustainable Development (CSD 2006),
G8, UNFCCC Bali climate change conference etc,
highly appraise Chinese efforts
 RE plays as significant topic in
regional/bilateral/multilateral cooperation
 EU open RE R&D projects to China
 Asia Pacific 6 Countries Clean Energy and Climate Change Partnership
 ASEAN cooperation framework put high priority for Res
 RE has played as significant technical choice for
GHG mitigation; 70% of CDM projects are from RE

21/12/8 70
可再生能源发展的挑战
Challenges forward
 High cost
 Resource assessment to be strengthened
 Limited R & D input
 Weak industry capability
 Capacity building need to be enhanced

21/12/8 71
可再生能源发展的挑战
Challenges forward
 风能 wind
 电网 Power grid

 太阳能 solar energy

 硅材料 expensive silicon

 High cost, 10times of the conventional electricity

 生物质能 biomass
 土地资源 limited land

 技术瓶颈 technical bottleneck

 地热海洋能 geothermal and marine energy

 weak resource assessment, low level of technology

21/12/8 72
 展望和总结
Outlook and summary

21/12/8 73
可再生能源未来发展展望
Outlook of RE for China
 Wind
 Annual increase may > 5GW, fastest market in the world

 Shortage of turbines supply will ease by 2010

 PV
 Raw material competition intensify, 2010 afterwards may balance

 Domestic market continue to grow, EU etc market dominates

 SWH: stable increase

 Biomass:
 Take advantage of local resources

 long term challenge (resources, technology)

21/12/8 74
中国可再生能源发展展望
RE Outlook

战略定位 年提供能源量 占全国比例 *

时间段 Timelines
RE Role Energy supply Energy mix

替代能源 2-2.5 亿 tce

近中期：当前 ~2020 年前后 5% 左右
Alternative energy 200-250Mtce

主流能源之一 **
3-5 亿 tce
长期： 2020~2030 年前后 Mainstream energy 8% 左右
300-500Mtce
in increased energy

主导能源之一 ***
6-10 亿 tce
远期： 2030~2050 年左右 Dominated energy 15% 或更高
600-1000Mtce
in increased energy

说明：未含水电 Excluding Hydropower

21/12/8 75
中国可再生能源发展展望
RE Outlook
1400.0
单位：百万吨标煤 Mtce

1200.0 8 Bio-liquid
8 液体燃料部门 7 Pellet
6 Geothermal
1000.0 7 固体颗粒
6 地热热利用 5 SWH
800.0 5 太阳热水器
Biogas
4 供气 4
600.0 3 生物质发电 3 Biomass
power
2 光伏发电
1 2 Solar PV
400.0 风力发电

200.0
1 wind

0.0 年份
2006 2020 2030 2050

21/12/8 76
总结
Summary

 政府给予了很大重视，颁  High attentions from

布了诸多支持文件 government, policy
 市场开始扩大；产业成长 framework established
 技术选择  Market expansion
 风能、太阳能、生物质
 Industry growing
 发电、液体燃料、供热
 Technical priorities
 Wind, solar, biomass
 需要长期的研究和研发
 Power, liquid fuel, heat
 可再生能源的技术和市场
 R&D needs strengthen
前景一片光明，还有很多
难度和挑战，需要持之以  Bright future despite
恒的努力 challenges remain

21/12/8 77
 谢谢！
Thanks

21/12/8 78