Presentation on crude oil:

By:
Group Number-7

Neha Agarwal (229)

Preeti Chaudhary (242)
Ruchi Mandal (250)
Sandeep Sinha (254)
Sarneet Lamba (255)
Shikha Koul (259)
According to the projections of International Energy
Agency, crude oil comprises for 34.8% of global energy
demand in 2009, decreasing 0.22% in comparison with
2008

Oil Trade
Global oil trade has narrowed by 3.1% (1.7 million b/d) in
2009 . This is the worst decline rate since 1987.

In Middle East where there are lots of energy exporting

countries there is a serious fall in oil export because of the
fall in production and raising domestic consumption.
Oil Consumption:

World oil consumption averaged 84.1 million b/d in 2009.

In accordance with the predictions of International
Energy Agency an insignificant increase in crude oil
consumption in 2010 is foreseen and crude oil
consumption is expected as 86.5 million b/d.

In the mid-term, the regions where it is expected to

observe biggest increase in oil demand are Asia, Middle
East and Latin America. It is expected that the rise in
crude oil demand results from Asia with 66% per cent in
2015.
 20
18
18
16
14
12
10
8
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6 4.8
4 3.5 3 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5
2
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Fe a bi an a zi or
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U Ch Ja In n r r m Br K an
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Oil Consumption in 2009 (First ten countries) (thousand b/d)

Oil Reserve
World oil reserves recorded as 1.33 trillion barrels
in 2008. There was an unimportant (700 billion
barrels) increase in 2009.

Graph in following slide shows the

proven Oil Reserves in Various
regions of the World
 Mi
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Sa st
nd
C Am
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Eu
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Af ras
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No
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World Proved Oil Reserves in 2009, (billion barrels)

As
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Pa
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ic
Oil Reserve/Production Ratio
At the end of 2009 world oil R/P ratio averaged 45.7 years. According to
sources of 2009 with the same production amount and without new
explorations Middle East that has the 56.6% of world oil reserves are
sufficient for 84.8 years.
90 84.8
80.6
80
70
60
50
40 36
30 21.2
20 15 14.4
10
0
Top World Oil Producers, Exporters, Consumers, and Importers,
2009(millions of barrels per day)
Total oil  Net oil Total oil Net oil

 Producers1 Production  Exporters2 Exports  Consumers3 Consumption  Importers4 Imports

 1. Saudi  1. Saudi  1. United  1. United
10.72 8.65 20.59 12.22
Arabia Arabia States States

 2. Russia 9.67  2. Russia 6.57  2. China 7.27  2. Japan 5.1

 3. United
8.37  3. Norway 2.54  3. Japan 5.22  3. China 3.44
States

 4. Iran 4.12  4. Iran 2.52  4. Russia 3.1  4. Germany 2.48

 5. United
 5. South
 5. Mexico 3.71 Arab 2.52  5. Germany 2.63 2.15
Korea
Emirates

 6. China 3.84  6. Venezuela 2.2  6. India 2.53  6. France 1.89

 7. Canada 3.23  7. Kuwait 2.15  7. Canada 2.22  7. India 1.69

 8. United Arab

2.94  8. Nigeria 2.15  8. Brazil 2.12  8. Italy 1.56
Emirates

 9. South
 9. Venezuela 2.81  9. Algeria 1.85 2.12  9. Spain 1.56
Korea
10. Saudi
10. Norway 2.79 10. Mexico 1.68 2.07 10. Taiwan 0.94
Arabia
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION
Some facts about Oil Production in FY
2009
In 2009 oil production declined 2.6% compared to 2008
and 80 million b/d was produced. OPEC produced 33.08
million b/d, with 7.3% (2.5 million b/d) production cut.

Another region where production level decreased is Africa.

This global decrease in oil production is the worst

decrease since 1982. Non-OPEC oil production increased
with 0.1% (69 million b/d).
The largest increase in the world in oil production was
seen in USA with 7% (462 million b/d). Other countries
where oil production increased were Russia, Brazil,
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
Total trade in India and country’s position
in world trade:
India is the sixth largest consumer of crude oil in the world with
about 70% of its local requirement met through imports. It
produced 0.7 mn bbl/day of crude oil in 2007-08 (year that
ended March), while the consumption of petroleum products
was at 2.5 mn bbl/day.
Oil Prices
In oil markets, a fluctuating price course was observed
during the last 12 months period.

prices, between 40 $/b and 50 $/b in the first three months

of 2009 were observed due to the effects of economic
crisis,

Average daily WTI , 38% in comparison with 2008 oil prices

were recorded as 61,92 $/b.

75 $/b level, in the beginning of May 2010

GLOBAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY
 The global oil demand has grown up by 0.2 mb/d to
2.3 mb/d on higher-than-expected 3Q2010 .
 The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for 2010
is adjusted up by 0.4 mb/d to 29.6 mb/d on higher
demand, dipping to 29.4 mb/d in 2011.
 Peak maintenance, poor margins and industrial action
in France curbed OECD crude runs to 34.6 mb/d, the
lowest since 1993 and 2.4 mb/d below September
MAJOR WORLD TRADING CENTERS

 No. 1 - NYMEX-New York mercantile exchange

 No. 2-TOCOM- Tokyo commodity exchange
 No. 3-MCX- Multi commodity exchange India
CONSUMPTION PATTERNS

Year Consumption(Bbl) Change

2000 76709.94 1.30 %

2001 77441.54 0.95 %
2002 78087.46 0.83 %
2003 79658.34 2.01 %
2004 82405.64 3.45 %
2005 84002.86 1.94 %
2006 84977.35 1.16 %
 PRICE MAKERS
 OPEC countries
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC, pronounced  is a cartel of twelve
developing countries made up of
Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeri
a, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates,
and Venezuela.
OPEC has maintained its headquarters in Vienna since
1965, and hosts regular meetings among the oil ministers
of its Member Countries. Indonesia withdrew in 2008 after
it became a net importer of oil, but stated it would likely
return if it became a net exporter in the world again.
 PRODUCTION VS CONSUMPTION

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

TOTAL
76.9 80.4 81.3 81.6 81.4 82.0 79.9
PRODUCTION

TOTAL
79.4 82.3 83.5 84.4 85.6 85.2 84.1
DEMAND
INFLUENCES ON DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF CRUDE OIL

Demand-
 industrialization
 Transportation
 Infrastructure development
 High long term value
 Insufficiency
CONT..

Supply –
 Geographical
 Technological
 Economic
 Temporal (16 years for USA and 168 years for Iraq)
 Lack of renewable sources of energy
GOVT. POLICY (RECENT)

 A hike in the excise duty on petrol and diesel, in the

Finance Budget 2010-11 . 

The Excise duty on petrol and diesel has now been

raised to Rs 1/litre. The Budget this year, has restored
the 5% duty on crude petroleum and and 7.5% duty on
petrol and deisel.
COMPETITION FROM SUBSTITUTES:-

 Hydel

 Biomass

 Wind

 Nuclear