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Mark Blair
Dan McNulty
Brittany Monteparte
Andreea Neagu
Adrienne Sluga
  
• ey Findings
• Definitions
• Anchoring Effect
• Availability Heuristic
•
onjunction Fallacy
• ideo
•
onfirmation Bias
• roupthink
• Application
 


•
ognitive Biases Are Not An Indictment Of
An Individual¶s Analytical Abilities

• o ypes Of Analysts

± hose Who Are Aare Of heir On Biases
± hose Who Are Not Aare Of heir On Biases

• Memory Is Not Localized

 Ê 



• ³Cognitive biases are mental errors caused by our simplified
information processing strategies.´
± Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richard J. Heuer

• ³Strategic decision making is particularly vulnerable to the

influence of cognitive biases, misguided thought patterns that result
from the simplifying strategies or decision-making shortcuts known
as judgment heuristics. These common errors in judgment can lead
to disastrous consequences and are often the result of either
insufficient information or not enough of the right kind of
information.´
±
ognitive Bias in Everyday Strategic Planning by Loren ary
 Ê 



• Fundamental Limitations In
Human Mental Processes
± Simple Rules Of humb Leading o
Faulty Judgments

• Similar o Optical Illusions

± Physical Images hat Appear
Misleading
± he Brain
arries Weaknesses
± Aareness Of he Bias Does Not
Produce A More Accurate 




Perception


      
 „ 

 


• ³Any systematic deviation from the truth that affects
the conclusions you make based on your data.´
± he National EMS
Date Analysis Resource
enter

• ³When a point of view prevents impartial judgment

on issues relating to the subject of that point of view.
± MedicineNet, Inc

• ³Bias, or systematic error, favors particular results.´

± Annenburg Foundation
   
• ³A fallacy is a general type of appeal (or category of argument) that
resembles good reasoning, but that we should not find to be
persuasive.
± http://.cuyamaca.edu/brucethompson/Fallacies/discussion
.asp

• ³Fallacies are mistakes of reasoning, as opposed to making

mistakes that are of a factual nature.´
± http://philosophy.hku.hk/think/
 


• ³A heuristic is a mental shortcut that allows people to solve
problems and make judgments quickly and efficiently. The
rule-of-thumb strategies shorten decision-making time and
allow people to function without constantly stopping to think
about the next course of action. While heuristics are helpful in
many situations, they can also lead to biases.´
± Psychologist, endra an Wagner
m

 

• Also non As Focalism

• endency o Rely oo Heavily

On One rait Or Piece Of
Information
± Bias oard A
ertain alue

• Emphasis Based On When he

Information Is Received Rather
han On he Strength Of he
Information


   
    

   !


 

"„
• as the Mississippi River longer or shorter
than 500 miles?
± Give estimate of how long the Mississippi River
actually is.
• as the Mississippi River longer or shorter
than 5000 miles?
± Give estimate of how long the Mississippi River
actually is.
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• One Of he Most Dangerous Biases For
Intelligence Professionals

• Analyst Must Be Aare Of Possible Shortcuts

± Assessment Of ariables In he Decision


      
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• hree Methods:
± Decision Support ools
± raining
± Devil¶s Advocate
• Having one individual search
for refuting evidence is likely
to lead to better analysis

• Rethink Problem From Beginning

± Avoid Any Prior Judgment As A
Starting Point


 
 


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• endency o Overestimate he Probabilities Of Events
Associated With Memorable Occurrences

• Base Decisions On What Is Remembered Rather han

omplete Data
± Information Mentally Available

• Media And Nes Reports Have A Significant Effect

• Demonstration

   
    

   

 


" +
")+
,
"*
• Are there more words that begin with µR¶ or are
there more words that have µR¶ in the third place in
the English language?
• Are there more words that begin with µK¶ or are
there more words that have µK¶ in the third place in
the English language?
• Which is a more likely cause of death in the United
States: being killed by falling airplane parts or
being killed by a shark?
± Do more Americans die from a) homicide and car
accidents, or b) diabetes and stomach cancer?
± Which claims more lives in the United States: lightning
or tornadoes?
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• he Soviet Break Up
± Difficulty In Imagining he Break-up Due o
Lack Of Experience
± Not As Difficult o Imagine A Return o A

ommunist Regime In Russia Because Of
Familiarity


      
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• Be Aare Of All he Diverse Factors hat
Influence A Decision

•
onsidering What Information Is ruly

Relevant Rather han Simply Available
± A
H
 

 Ê!
  
• endency o Assume hat o Or More
Specific
onditions Are More Probable han
A Single eneral One
• Associating Quantity Of Events With Quantity
Of Probability


   
    

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"%
• Ôinda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and
very bright. She majored in philosophy. As
a student, she was deeply concerned with
issues of discrimination and social justice,
and also participated in anti-nuclear
demonstrations.
± as she more likely to be a bank teller or a bank
teller active in the feminist movement?
 3
ahneman & versky
 
 
 Ê 


• endency o Search For Information hat
onfirms
One¶s Fixed Ideas

• When Building A Hypothesis:

± More Likely o Use Information hat Supports
hat Decision
± Avoid hings hat Are
ontradictory o he
Hypothesis


   
    

 


 Ê 


• est he Folloing Hypothesis:
± All
ards With oels Have An Even Number On
he Back
± Select o
ards o Flip Over:
 Ê 


•
orrect Ansers:
± A:
onfirming Data
± 7: Disconfirming Data

•
onfirming Data • Disconfirming Data

• his
hoice Provides No Indication

Of Whether he Hypothesis Is rue
• his
hoice Provides No Indication Of
Whether he Hypothesis Is rue
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• Major
hris atarka ± US Military Academy
± Enemy
ourse Of Action (E
OA)
• endency o Look For Information Or Reports hat Support It
• Likely o Deploy Assets Only Along he Most Expected Enemy
Axis Of Advance
• Discount Reports hat Do Not
onfirm he E
OA

• eneral Ulysses S. rant

± he Battle Of Shiloh (1862)
± Ignored Information And Reports


 
 


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&
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hree Methods:
± Decision-Support ools
• Analysis Of
ompeting Hypotheses (A
H)
± raining
± Devil¶s Advocate



 

 
 

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• ³A mode of thinking that
people engage in when they
are deeply involved in a
cohesive in-group, when the
members¶ striving for
unanimity override their
motivation to realistically
appraise alternative courses
of action.´
± Irving L. Janus Victims of
Groupthink


  




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•
haracteristics Of roupthink
± Idea Of Invulnerability
±
ollective Efforts o Rationalize Or Discount Warnings
± Unquestioned Belief In he roup¶s Moral
orrectness
± Stereotypes Of hose Not In the roup
± Self-
ensorship
± Pressures o
onform
± Illusions Of Unanimity
± Protect he roup From
ontrasting iepoints


   
    

 


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• Senate Intelligence
ommittee Report - 2004
± Intelligence
ommunity And Iraq¶s Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Program

• John F. ennedy And Bay Of Pigs Invasion

± roup
ohesion
± Mind uarding




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• Select A Devil¶s Advocate

• Divide he roup Into Sub-

roups

• Discuss What Is Happening With

Others Not In he roup

• ather Anonymous Feedback


 
  
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• Most Dangerous In he Beginning
(Organizing) Stages Of Analysis
±
onfirmation Bias
± Anchoring Effect
± Availability Heuristic
±
onjunction Fallacy
± ambler¶s Fallacy
• Overeighing Historical Data o Reduce he
Probability Of Repeated Experiences
 Ê 



.
#


 
• Focus On
ontext

• Focus On Most Indicative Information

• Ignores Extraneous Information

• Identifies Relationships Of Data

• he ³Structure Is Non-Assumptive And Not

Susceptible o Bias
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• Modern Research: Memory Is Not Localized
• Information Recall Is Likely he Result Of he
Activation Of Neural Netorks



 


  





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• he Anser Is: Ê




• Sally Ride ained Notoriety As:

± he First US Female Astronaut
± Assigned o he Rogers
ommission o Investigate he

hallenger Disaster

• Sally Ride Is Still Alive oday

 
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• Excluding he erm ³Sally Only Returns o Mentions Of
³
hrista McAuliffe

• he Inclusion Of ³Sally Actually Returned More Mentions

Of ³
hrista McAuliffe

• ³Sally Is A Poerful Informational
ue And Demonstrates

An Informational Dominance
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• Structured Analysis
ombats his Bias By Organizing And
Weighing Data In he Exclusive
ontext Of he Intelligence
Query

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• Malcolm ladell¶s Blink

•
ited
ook
ounty Hospital¶s Dilemma Of Predicting Heart

Attacks Over Next 72 Hours

• Lee oldman¶s 4-Factor Algorithm More Accurate han

Seasoned
ardiologists

•
onclusion
1.
ardiologists
onsidered Information Not Relevant o he
ontext
Of he Query
2. A Layman (Or A
omputer For hat Matter), With An Hour Of
raining,
ould Learn o Be More Accurate At Predicting Heart
Attacks In Next 72 Hours han A Seasoned
ardiologist
 Ê 

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• Structured Approaches Focus Specifically On Indicative

ontextually Exclusive Data

•
ontext Is Paramount u<
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• Are here Any Questions?

•
ontact Information:
± Mark Blair: mblair81@mercyhurst.edu
± Daniel McNulty: dmcnul91@mercyhurst.edu
± Brittany Monteparte: bmonte80@mercyhurst.edu
± Andreea Neagu: aneagu16@mercyhurst.edu
± Adrienne Sluga: asluga69@mercyhurst.edu