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CHAPTE
R
Introduction to Economic
Fluctuations
Average 4
growth
rate 2
-2
-4
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Growth rates of real GDP, consumption, investment
Percent 40
change Investment
from 4 30 growth rate
quarters
earlier 20
Real GDP
10 growth rate
0
Consumption
-10 growth rate
-20
-30
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Unemployment
Percent 12
of labor
force
10
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Okun’s Law
Percentage 10 ∆Y
change in 1951 1966 = 3.5 − 2 ∆u
real GDP 8
Y
1984
6
2003
4
2 1987
0 1975
2001
-2
1991 1982
-4
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Change in unemployment rate
Index of Leading Economic
Indicators
Published monthly by the Conference Board.
Aims to forecast changes in economic activity
6-9 months into the future.
Used in planning by businesses and govt,
despite not being a perfect predictor.
140
120
1996 = 100
100
80
60
40
20
Source:
0
Conference 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Board
Time horizons in
macroeconomics
Long run:
Prices are flexible, respond to changes in supply
or demand.
Short run:
Many prices are “sticky” at some predetermined
level.
P
An
An increase
increase in in the
the
price
price level
level causes
causes
aa fall
fall in
in real
real money
money
balances
balances (M/P (M/P),),
causing
causing aa
decrease
decrease inin the
the
demand
demand for
for goods
goods AD
&
& services.
services.
Y
An
An increase
increase in in
the
the money
money supply
supply
shifts
shifts the
the AD
AD
curve
curve toto the
the right.
right.
AD
AD 2
1
Y
Y
Y
= F (K , L)
CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 20
Long-run effects of an increase
in M
P LRAS
An increase
in M shifts AD
to the right.
1
…but leaves Y
Y
output the same.
SRAS
P
AD
AD2
1
Y
…causes output Y1 Y2
to rise.
CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations slide 24
From the short run to the long
run
Over time, prices gradually become “unstuck.”
When they do, will they rise or fall?
In the short-run then over time,
equilibrium, if P will…
Y > Y rise
Y < Y fall
Y = Y remain constant
A = initial P LRAS
equilibrium
B = new short-
P2 C
run eq’m
after Fed B SRAS
increases M P
A AD
AD2
C = long-run 1
equilibrium Y
Y Y2
20%
…and then a
gradual recovery. 10%
0%
1973 1974 1975 1976 19
0%
1977 1978 1979 1980 19
The
The adverse
adverse
supply
supply shock
shock B SRAS2
moves
moves the
the P2
economy
economy toto A SRAS1
point P1
point B.
B.
AD
1
Y
Y2 Y
higher,
higher, but
but YY 1
remains
remains atat its
its full-
full- Y
Y2 Y
employment
employment level.level.