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Statistical Analysis

of the Indian Telecom Industry


 GSM & CDMA operators
 12 GSM and 2 CDMA operators
GSM Operators with Market share
Group Company wise % market share - Jul'2010

Name of Total Sub


Sl. No. % Market Share
Company Figures
1 Bharti Airtel 139,220,882 29.74%
Vodafone
2 Essar 111,465,260 23.81%
3 IDEA 70,748,936 15.11%
4 BSNL 68,065,817 14.54%
5 Aircel 43,296,659 9.25%
Reliance
6 Telecom 16,311,206 3.48%
7 Uninor 6,873,798 1.47%
8 MTNL 4,947,938 1.06%
9 Loop Mobile 2,947,228 0.63%
10 Videocon 2,777,396 0.59%
11 Stel 1,423,043 0.30%
12 Etisalat 30,023 0.01%
  All India 468,108,186 100.00%
Statistical Analysis
• Airtel

• Reliance

• Share prices from Jan 1st – June 30th 2010

• BSE – Sensex daily index from Jan 1st – June 30th 2010

• Subscriber base addition

• Inflation

• Correlation and Regression


Sensitive Movement

18500
Chart Title
18000 Chart Title 350.00
17500 300.00
17000 250.00

16500 200.00
150.00 Airtel
16000 BSE
100.00
15500
50.00
15000
0.00
14500
10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
an- an- an- eb- eb- ar- ar- ar- pr- pr- ay- ay- ay- un- un- un-
J J J J J J
4- 14- 27- 8-F 22-F 5-M 7-M 0-M 2-A 3-A 5-M 7-M 7-M 8- 18- 30-
1 3 1 2 1 2

Reliance
250.00
Inflation
20
200.00
18
16
150.00 14
Reliance 12
10
100.00 Inflation
8
6
50.00 4
2
0
0.00
1 8 1 5 2 2 29 3 6 43 50 57 6 4 7 1 7 8 85 9 2 9 9 0 6 1 3 2 0
1 1 1
Sensex Vs. Airtel Share

Correlation Co efficient = 0.261724


Regression Result
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.261724345 Airtel=121.039+0.01003*BSE
R Square 0.068499633 Senses explains 6% Airtels stock
Adjusted R Square 0.060671898
prices.
Standard Error 21.04533269
The relationship is statistically
Observations 121
significant.
ANOVA
  df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 3875.821467 3875.821467 8.750889 0.003733906
Residual 119 52705.81733 442.906028
Total 120 56581.6388     

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value


Intercept 121.0395451 58.05649952 2.084857786 0.0392207
BSE 0.010029632 0.003390462 2.958190148 0.0037339
BSE Line Fit Plot for Airtel
350.00

300.00

250.00

200.00
Airtel

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00
15500 16000 16500 17000 17500 18000 18500
BSE
BSE Vs. Reliance Share

 Correlation Coefficient- 0.172972


Regression Result
Regression Statistics Reliance=162.853+1.1420*BSE
Multiple R 0.172973771 Sensex explains 2% Reliance’s stock
R Square 0.029919925 prices.
Adjusted R Square 0.021767992 The relationship is statistically
Standard Error 13.85110182 significant.
Observations 121

ANOVA
Significanc
  df SS MS F eF
Regression 1 704.1554202 704.1554 3.670286 0.05779
Residual 119 22830.50958 191.853
Total 120 23534.665     

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value


Intercept 162.8532806 1.6808508 96.88741 4.7E-115
BSE 1.14202E-06 5.96109E-07 1.915799 0.05779
BSE Line Fit Plot
250.00

200.00

150.00
Reliance

100.00

50.00

0.00
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
BSE
Reliance Vs. Airtel
Correlation Index = 0.410945
 Regression Result
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Airtel=187.56+0.637*BSE
Regression Statistics Reliance explains 16% Airtel’s
Multiple R 0.410945055 stock prices.
R Square 0.168875838 The relationship is statistically
Adjusted R Square 0.161891602 significant.
Standard Error 19.87912361
Observations 121

ANOVA
  df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 9555.271692 9555.272 24.17957 2.84065E-06
Residual 119 47026.36711 395.1796
Total 120 56581.6388      

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value


Intercept 187.5611177 21.45543683 8.741892 1.75E-14
Reliance 0.637187885 0.129581566 4.917273 2.84E-06
Reliance Line Fit Plot
350.00

300.00

250.00

200.00
Airtel

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00
120.00 130.00 140.00 150.00 160.00 170.00 180.00 190.00 200.00 210.00
Reliance
Inflation Vs. Airtel
 Correlation Coefficient =-0.30683
 Regression Result
SUMMARY
OUTPUT
Airtel= 376.41+(-4.8122*Inflation)
Regression Statistics Inflation explains 9% Airtel stock prices.
Multiple R 0.306830179 The relationship is statistically
R Square 0.094144759
Adjusted R Square 0.054759748 significant.
Standard Error 20.55415374
Observations 25

ANOVA
Significance
  df SS MS F F
Regression 1 1009.867468 1009.867468 2.390370281 0.135735
Residual 23 9716.884428 422.473236
Total 24 10726.7519      

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%


Intercept 376.4164898 53.28463098 7.064260047 3.38234E-07 266.1888 486.6441
Inflation -4.812219643 3.11252502 -1.546082236 0.135734622 -11.251 1.626529
Inflation Line Fit Plot
350

300

250

200
Airtel

150

100

50

0
14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5 19 19.5
Inflation
Airtel -Month wise Addition
Month Addition
• Jan 2850212
• Feb 2904962
• Mar 3000109
• Apr 3000173
• May 3000218
• Jun 3000696
Airtel Sales Vs.Share

Correlation Coefficient = -0.62037


Regression Result
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.620373282
R Square 0.384863009
Adjusted R Square 0.231078762
Standard Error 18.19620435
Observations 6

ANOVA
  df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 828.621 828.621 2.502617 0.188819441
Residual 4 1324.407 331.1019
Total 5 2153.028      

Standard
  Coefficients Error t Stat P-value
Intercept 873.3878634 366.6747 2.381915 0.075831
Adddition -0.000195968 0.000124 -1.58197 0.188819
Addition Line Fit Plot
350

300

250

200
Stock

150 Stock
Predicted Stock
100

50

0
2800000 2850000 2900000 2950000 3000000 3050000
Adddition
Reliance and Airtel (combined) vs BSE volumes
Regression Result
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.769329268

R Square 0.591867523
Adjusted R Square 0.581402588
Standard Error 1372355.444
Observations 121

ANOVA
Significan
  df SS MS F ce F
Regression 3 3.2E+14 1.07E+14 56.55721 1.15E-22
Residual 117 2.2E+14 1.88E+12
Total 120 5.4E+14      

Standard Lower Upper Lower Upper


  Coefficients Error t Stat P-value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept 4611231.133 1930503 2.388616 0.018512 787971.2 8434491 787971.2 8434491
Reliance -389426.7777 49728.13 -7.83112 2.43E-12 -487911 -290943 -487911 -290943
Volume 446682.5964 48316.62 9.244906 1.31E-15 350994.1 542371.1 350994.1 542371.1
Airtel -45854.21202 6405.856 -7.15817 7.75E-11 -58540.7 -33167.7 -58540.7 -33167.7
Reliance and Airtel (combined) vs BSE Index
Regression Result
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.529303126

R Square 0.2801618
Adjusted R Square 0.26170441
Standard Error 486.8794198
Observations 121

ANOVA
Significan
  df SS MS F ce F
Regression 3 10794505 3598168 15.17884 2.09E-08
Residual 117 27735034 237051.6
Total 120 38529538      

Standard Lower Upper Lower Upper


  Coefficients Error t Stat P-value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept 13405.67879 684.897 19.57328 1.04E-38 12049.28 14762.08 12049.28 14762.08
Reliance 29.70749087 17.64237 1.683872 0.094873 -5.2323 64.64728 -5.2323 64.64728
Volume -9.292599276 17.1416 -0.54211 0.588775 -43.2406 24.65544 -43.2406 24.65544
Airtel 1.250241628 2.272647 0.550126 0.583282 -3.25062 5.7511 -3.25062 5.7511
Conclusion
 BSE Sensex has little impact on Reliance
 Airtel more sensitive to Sensex compared to Reliance
 Airtel and Reliance shares react in the same way
 Inflation has negative impact on Airtel Stock
 Unable to determine the correlation between sales and Airtel
prices.
 There is a higher correlation between BSE volumes and
combined Airtel and Reliance, than between BSE index and
Airtel and Reliance.

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