Estimation Techniques

Shreekanth
Vankamamidi
Estimation Techniques
 Effort estimates are very critical for any project success.

 Wrong estimates can severely impact on project’s schedules, deliverables and quality.

 But how to estimate a given activity/task/module/project ?

 The best known Estimation techniques:

▪ Analogous Estimating

▪ Parametric Estimating

▪ Three-Point Estimating
▪ Confidence level

▪ Reserve Analysis
Estimation Techniques
 Analogous Estimating

▪ The duration is derived from based on earlier performed similar task/activities.

▪ Also called as Top down estimating.

▪ When to use
▪ If the information provided is limited

▪ Advantages
▪ Less time and cost consuming

▪ Disadvantages
▪ Less accurate
Estimation Techniques
 Parametric Estimating

 Estimate for a specific entity and then multiply to make it for the entire task/activity.

 Example: If a single screen (including JSP, Strut's stuff, Hibernate model’s,..) takes 3 man days then
20 screens should take 60 days.

 Advantages
▪ Very accurate when data is reliable and less time consuming.

 Disadvantages
▪ Less consistent if data is not realistic or assumptions are not accurate.
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 Three-Point Estimating

 Estimates are derived based on 3 different views (i.e. Best case (optimistic), Most likely and Worst
Estimate (pessimistic) )of individual estimates. And then use formula to compute the average

▪ Expected value = ((Best + Worst)+4*Most likely)/6

 Example
 Consider Optimistic Guy expected task to complete in 30 days, pessimistic guy in 50 days and the
moderate guy for 35 days.

 Expected Value = ((30 + 50)+4 * 35)/6 = 36.66 days

Note:
 Optimistic: Considers nothing goes wrong and task will be executed as planned.
 Pessimistic: Considers risk is certain during task execution.
Estimation Techniques
Confidence Level

 To determine the confidence level of completing a task/activity is based on the standard deviation.
 SD = ( pessimistic – optimistic durations)/6 => (50 -30)/6 = 3.33

▪ Expected value (EV) to complete above task is 36.66 days (from earlier example)

▪ Chance for the task being completed between 33.33 to 39.99 days is 68.26%
▪ i.e. Expected value + and – 1XS.D (i.e. 36.66 + SD and 36.66 – SD)

▪ Chance for the task being completed between 30.00 to 43.32 days is 95.44
▪ i.e. . Expected value + and – 1XS.D (i.e. 36.66 + 2*SD and 36.66 – 2*SD)

Note:
The higher the Standard deviation, higher the risk and the lesser the confidence but however, the confidence level is tracked at
project schedule level. But again at project level, SD sum would be very high and also not all individual tasks will run over schedule
hence confidence level would be based on square root of all sum up SD squared (individual task/activities).
Estimation Techniques
 Reserve Analysis
 It is also called as contingency reserve.
 It adds buffer time to the task/activity to handle any risk.
 Reserve time can be based on x% on total estimate.
 From earlier sample, if building a single UI Screen takes 3 man days (i.e. 24 hours) and
with reserve time as 10%, brings it to 26.4 hours.

 Conclusion:
▪ As discussed, in ability to-do proper effort estimates can cause severe impact to the project.
Using some of the mathematical models along with historical data can minimize the impact. And
some of the above task estimation techniques can also be used to during developing project
schedule.

Note:
Only few, but most commonly used estimation models are discussed here.