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Risk Analysis

Faisal I Khan Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science Memorial University

What may happen

What may happen

What may happen

What Risk Analysis Can Do?


Helps in Forecasting any unwanted situation Estimating damage potential of such situation Decision making to control such situation Evaluating effectiveness of control measures

Outline of presentation
Definitions of Risk and Hazard Risk Assessment Process Environmental Risk Assessment Industrial Risk Assessment Reliability Risk Assessment Application of Industrial Risk Assessment Application of Environmental Risk Assessment

Hazard
Hazard: It is a measure of harm/loss or potentiality of an event to cause harm/loss
Fire Hazard Explosion Hazard Toxic Hazard Corrosive Hazard Radioactive Hazards

Risk
The probability of suffering a harm or loss. It is a combination of hazard and Probability
Risk = Probability of occurrence of hazard X magnitude of hazard

Type of Risks
Background risk Incremental risk Total risk

Measurement of Risk
Individual Risk Societal Risk

Individual Risk
Risk posed by an individual
It is generally measured in time domain for a particular type of hazard. Risk of Death due to fire in an industry = 1.0E05 /yr

Societal Risk
Risk for a group of people
It is measured in terms of number of people poses particular risk for a given period of time. Risk of Death to 10 workers due to fire in an industry = 1.0E-09 /yr/10 persons

Acceptable Risk
Risk thats acceptable to regulatory agency and also to the public Level of Risk of Death Per Year (voluntarily acceptable by public)
Smoking 30 cigarettes per day 1 in 200 Man aged 35-44 1 in 600 Motor Vehicle Accident 1 in 10 000 Accident at home 1 in 12 000 Rail accident 1 in 420 000

Acceptable Risk Criteria


UK Health and Safety Executive Criteria: FAR (Fatality Accident Rate) Number of fatality in life time working in an industry
FAR = (Number of fatalities)*108/(Total hours worked by all employees during period covered) Acceptable FAR value 1.0

Acceptable Risk Criteria


US EPA For carcinogens/or other events a lifetime risk of 1 in million (1.0E-06) is defined as acceptable For non-carcinogens a hazard index less than 1.0 is defined acceptable

Acceptable Risk Criteria


Dutch Acceptable risk criteria
1.0E-05

Frequency of event

Unacceptable region 1.0E-06 Conditional Acceptable 1.0E-08 1.0 100 10 Number of fatalities

ALARP
As Low As Reasonable Practicable (ALRAP)
1 .0 E-0 1 T he lo w er th e risk le ss p ro p o rtio na tely, it is n e c essa ry to sp e n d to re d uc e it. T his c o n ce p t o f d im in ishing p ro p o rtio n is sh o wn b y th e tria n gle

1 .0 E-0 3 Individual risk (IR)

U n a cc e p ta b l e re g i o n

Th e A L A R P 1 .0 E-0 5 B r o a d l y a c c e p ta bl e re g i o n 1 .0 E-0 7

Tolerable only if risk reduction Is impracticable or cost is grossly disproportionate to the improvement gained
N e g l i g i bl e r i s k

1 .0 E-0 9

ALARP application
1 .0 E + 0 1 U n it s A f t e r r e m e dia l m e a ur e s U n a cce pta bl e re g i o n 1 .4 E- 0 2 Individual Risk (IR) 1 .0 E - 0 3 3 .7 E- 0 4 A LA R P 1 .0 E - 0 5 2 .3 E- 0 6 5 .2 E- 0 7 1 .0 E - 0 7 B ro a dl y a cce pta bl e re g i o n 1 .0 E - 0 9 Sepa. 1 Sepa. 2 Compr. 1 Compr. 2 Drier Flash N e g l i g i bl e ri s k 5 .5 E- 0 7 5 .2 E- 0 7 1 .2 E- 0 5 1 .2 E- 0 5 4 .2 E- 0 5 1 .2 E- 0 1 1 .2 E- 0 1 B e f o r e r e m e dia l m e a sur e s 5 .7 E- 0 3 1 .0 E - 0 1

Fi g u r e 1 1 . C o m p a r i s i o n o f i n d i vi d u a l r i s k f a c t o r s w i t h A L A R P c r i t e r i a

Risk Representation
Individual Risk Contour

1.0E-04 2.0E-05 5.0E-06

Risk Representation
FN curves

Frequency of occurrence (F)


Number of fatalities (N)

Risk Assessment
Definition and Classification

Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment is a systematic procedure for describing and quantifying the risk associated with hazardous substance, process, action or event. It involves:
Identification of hazard Quantification of hazard Quantification of probability of occurrence of hazard Estimation of risk

Classification of Risk Assessment


According to scope of work, risk assessment may be classified as:
Environmental Risk Assessment Industrial Risk Assessment Reliability Risk Assessment Financial Risk Assessment Health Risk Assessment

Environmental Risk Assessment


Contaminant Risk Assessment

Environmental Risk Assessment


Risk source Exposure Process Consequenc e process

Release Assessment (Hazard Identification) Exposure Assessment Consequence Assessment (Toxicity Assessment) Risk Estimation (Risk Characterization)

Environmental Risk Assessment


Hazard identification
Identification of all possible sources of hazards such chemicals, events, etc. Estimate their strength at various mediums Rank them according to their severity Set up priority for the most vulnerable ones

Parameters used for screening and ranking


Concentration Frequency of detection Mobility Persistence in the environment Treat ability

Environmental Risk Assessment


Exposure Assessment Activities involve in exposure assessment (Benzene)
Release mechanism (volatilization) Transport mechanism (air convection) Transfer mechanism (volatilization) Transformation mechanism (chemical reaction) Exposure point (air) Receptors (population) Exposure Rout (inhalation)

Environmental Risk Assessment


Exposure Point Concentration: Receptor dose
I = (C*CR*EF*ED)/(BW*AT) Where, I: intake (mg/kg), C: concentration at exposure point (mg/L in water and mg/cu m in air), CR: contact rate (L/day), ED: exposure duration (yr), BW: body weight (kg), AT: Averaging time (days), EF: Frequency of exposure (days/year)

Exposure pathways
Source
Affected surface soil Wind erosion Atmospheric dispersion Affected subsurface soils Volatilization Accumulation in enclosed space Leaching Affected Groundwater Groundwater transport Inhalation of vapors and/or particulates On-site receptor

Transport Mechanism

Exposure Media
Soil dermal contact and ingestion

Receptors

Groundwater ingestion

Off-site receptor

Surface water, swimming, fish consumption, etc

Environmental Risk Assessment


Consequence assessment/Toxicity assessment Adverse effect on environment, human or other living system
Response

Dose

Environmental Risk Assessment


Risk Estimation Carcinogenic risk
Risk = CDI*Slope factor

Non-carcinogenic risk
HI = CDI/RfD HI: Hazard index (dimensionless) CDI: Chronic daily intake (mg/kg-day) RfD: Reference dose (mg/Kg-day)

Industrial Risk Assessment


Safety Risk Assessment

Industrial Risk Assessment


Steps involve:
Hazard Identification Hazard Assessment Consequence Analysis Risk Characterization

Industrial Risk Assessment


Hazard Identification
DOW Indiex Mond Index SWeHI index AHI index

Industrial Risk Assessment


Hazard Assessment
Qualitative hazard assessment
HAZOP technique OptHAZOP technique

Probabilistic hazard assessment


Fault tree analysis

Industrial Risk Assessment


HAZOP
HAZOP is a simple structured methodology for hazard identification and assessment, PI&D's, PFD, material flow diagrams, and operating manuals are examined to identify causes and consequences for all possible deviations from normal operation that could arise

Industrial Risk Assessment


Take one unit or study node at a moment

HAZOP

Keep this unit for conventional HAZOP study

Compare the study node with the unit of Information Base

INFORMATION BASE

No

Is unit matching Yes Apply guide words Analyse the causes and consequences of the deviation drawn from the INFORMATION BASE

Add or remove causes and consequences due to special benaviour of unit

No

Are all deviations over ?

Yes

Are all study nodes over ? Yes Prepare HAZOP report

No

Stop

Industrial Risk Assessment


HAZOP Report
Project details Study node
Guide word Parameter Causes Consequences Recommendation Rank

Industrial Risk Assessment


Consequence analysis
Fire modeling Explosion modeling Impact modeling Toxic release and dispersion modeling

Industrial Risk Assessment


Risk Estimation and Characterization
Individual Risk Societal Risk

Industrial Risk Assessment


Latest Methodologies WHO methodology
Identification of Hazards
Checklist Matrix diagram of interaction

Assessment of Hazards
Accident sequence analysis Failure effect analysis

Accident Consequence Analysis

Industrial Risk Assessment


Quantitative Risk Analysis
Hazard identification Frequency estimation Consequence Analysis Measure of Risk

Probabilistic safety analysis


Shown in next slide

Hazard identification
Identification of plant operating stage Initiating event selection Function system relation Screening of initiating even

Accident sequence modeling


Event sequence modeling System modeling Human performance analysis

Data acquisition and parameter estimation


Initiating events Component failure data Human error probability

Accident sequence quantification


Determination of accident sequence Boolean reduction

Hazardous Substance Release Category Assessment


Outflow model Evaporation model Weather conditions Relation of plant damage state & release category

Consequence assessment
Dispersion models Assessment of doses Dose response models

Integration of results

ORA procedure
Md leiz t n f c mle ou r a o o p t io e m a eb uis a ga l n n e t p n ino la t t

Hz r i e tfc to aadd ni i ai n * H Aeh iq e I t cn u R

a t d v lo id o e e p ac e t s e aio c id n c n r

a t d v lo id o e e p ac e ts e aio c id n c n r

Qai ai eh z r a s s m t u l t tv aad s e s e n *o t AO po e ue pH Z P r c d r *T P A O t o OH Z Po l

Qa tt tv h z r a s s m t u ni ai e aad s e s e / n Cn e u n ea s s m t osqe c ses e n *M S Co F ea dep s n OE f r ir n x loio s *H Z I f rt x r le s a dd p r io A D o oic e ae n is es n G *D M F C f rc s a in ef cs O I E To a c d g fe t F

P b bi tch z r a s s m t r a i si a ad s e s e o l n *P OA t o R F To l

R ke tm i n i s si a o t

Sp t o

Description and definition of system Hazard Identification

Accident Modeling

Frequency estimations

Risk Quantification

Risk Documentation & Follow up plan

ORA

Risk management

Probabilistic Safety Analysis Quantitative Risk assessment

Safety Analysis

System Modification to incorporate suggested risk control measures

Reliability Risk Assessment


Risk Based Maintenance

Reliability Risk Assessment


Risk Based Maintenance Planning
Risk estimation
Hazard identification Quantitative Hazard Assessment Probabilistic Hazard Assessment Risk Quantification

Risk evaluation
Setting up risk acceptance criteria Risk comparison

Maintenance planning

What would be the impacts?


Quantitative hazard assessment Accident scenario development

Start

What may go wrong?


How it may go wrong? How likely its occurrence?
What maintenance schedule would reduce its likelihood of occurrence?
Apply maintenance measures and reevaluate risk

Hazard identification

Probabilistic hazard assessment

Fault tree for the envisaged scenario

Fault tree development

Consequences analysis

Fault tree analysis

Risk estimation

Whether risk is in acceptance? Yes End

No Suggest maintenance measures to control risk

Divide system in manageable units

Consider one unit at a time

Risk Based Maintenance

Risk estimation
Hazard identification/failure scenario development Hazard quantification Probability analysis Risk estimation

Risk Evaluation
Setting up acceptance risk criteria Comparison of assessed risk with acceptance criteria

Maintenance planning
Development of maintenance plan to bring down the unacceptable risk to acceptable level Maintenance scheduling

Risk Estimation

Start

Consider one unit

Development of accident or failure scenario Quantitative hazard assessment Probabilistic hazard assessment

Estimation of likely damage area

Fault tree development

Consequences assessment Risk estimation

Fault tree analysis

No Are all units over? Yes Move to next module

Risk Evaluation
Risk factors of another unit Yes Risk factors of another unit

Risk factors of one unit

Comparison of estimated risk against acceptance criteria

Setting up acceptance risk Setting up acceptance risk criteria criteria

Is risk acceptable? No Add this unit for the maintenance planning

No

Are all units over? Yes Move to next module

Risk factors of one unit

Maintenance planning
Risk factors of another unit

Setup target risk for this unit Conduct reverse fault tree analysis to calculate maintenance duration

No

Are all units over? Yes Re do the fault tree analysis and risk computation of all the units considering maintenance

Setup new target risk

No Is revised risk acceptable? Yes Develop maintenance plan