Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Chapters 2:
Energy Sources & Sustainability
Energy for Sustainability
Sustainability:
patterns of economic, environmental, and social
progress that meet the needs of the present day
without reducing the capacity to meet future
needs.
Sustainable energy
patterns of energy production and use that can
support society’s present and future needs with
least life-cycle economic, environmental, and
social costs.
Criteria for Sustainable Energy
A broad range of considerations: Sustainable energy goes beyond
short-term economic effects to consider environmental, social, security,
and long-term economic implications of energy choices.
The future: Sustainable energy by definition aims to sustain the
availability of energy to meet the needs of future generations. To be
sustainable, our actions and choices should neither preclude options nor
place undo economic and environmental burdens on those who follow us.
Renewability or abundance of the energy resource for long term
reliability
Life-cycle…
…economic benefits and costs, including cost-effectiveness and
national and local economy effects
…environmental benefits and costs, including local, regional and
global effects
…social benefits and costs, including effects on human health,
communities, equity, and the disadvantaged
…security benefits and costs, including energy, environmental, and
national effects
Uncertainties of life-cycle benefits and costs
Geologic Limits of Fossil Fuels
The Peak Oil Debate
U.S. Oil Depletion and Dependency
Natural Gas and Coal
Hubbert’s Peak: a non-renewable resource
will rise to a peak and then decline
U.S. Production Peak followed 11
years after Peak in Reserves
Reserves
Quantity of a non-renewable resource that is
known and economically recoverable with
today’s technology and at today’s prices
Remaining Reserves
& Ultimate Recoverable (entire box = Q∞)
World Oil Discovery Trends:
Indicator of pending decline
0
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125
Note: U.S. volumes were added to the USGS foreign volumes to obtain world totals.
Location of Current Reserves
Oil
sands
Environmental Limits of Fossil Fuels
Global Climate Change
Urban and Regional Air Pollution
Other environmental impacts
Global Climate Change
Strong Scientific Consensus
Lag time between emissions and effects
Monitored atmospheric warming showing
strong evidence of change
Experiencing effects:
Extreme weather events
Polar region melting
Global Warming: Annual Mean Global Temperature, 1880-2006:
Since 1880, 14 of warmest years occurred in past 18 years
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment:
Already 15% depletion in area, 40% in thickness
Increase in Atmospheric CO2, 1958-2004
2007: 387 ppm
Delay Time in Effects of Higher CO2
Response to Global Warming
Adapting to climate change: Get used to it!
Mitigating effects of climate change:
Reduce GHG emissions through technology,
planning, and policy: all about CO2 and energy
Policy directives:
Kyoto protocol
European Union & other countries
U.S. states & cities
U.S. federal this year?
Current Congressional Climate Change Bills
U.S. Air
Pollution
Emissions
down since
1970
But still non-attainment of NAAQS
Ozone Non-attainment
And more severe Air Pollution in
Global Cities
Air pollutant concentrations compared to
WHO standards
Opportunities & Limitations for
Non-Fossil Energy
Nuclear Power
Energy efficiency
Renewable Energy
Nuclear Power is stagnant
U.S. Nuclear capacity and generation
MIT Study on Future of Nuclear Power
Costs are key factor: private investors are not
willing to make risks without large government
backing
Safety in the age of terrorism
Proliferation of radioactive materials and
weapons
Radioactive Wastes must be stored and
monitored for longer than we can imagine
Energy Efficiency & Conservation
Energy intensity = energy consumed
$GDP
200
175 $ 1.7
Trillion
Avoided Supply = 70 Quads in 2005
150
125
If E/GDP had dropped 0.4% per year
Quads
$ 1.0
100 Trillion
25
0
1953
1959
1965
1971
1975
1981
1987
1993
1999
2005
1951
1957
1963
1969
1949
1955
1961
1967
1973
1977
1979
1983
1985
1989
1991
1995
1997
2001
2003
Art Rosenfeld
Renewable Energy
Wind Power:
60 GW by early 2006
94 GW by early 2007
Photovoltaic Power:
6 GW by early 2006
10.5 GW by early 2007
Bioethanol Fuel:
13.5 billion gallons by early 2006
Three energy sources with the fastest
percentage growth rates
World Wind Power
Global Wind Capacity
Solar Photovoltaics
(slides from D. Kammen, “The Rise of Renewable Energy” Scientific
American, Sept 2006)
Global PV Capacity
U.S. Bioethanol Production
Global Biofuels Production