5-1 Statistics is a Science of Inference

Statistical Inference:
Predict and forecast values of
population parameters... Test hypotheses about values of population parameters... Make decisions...

On basis of sample statistics derived from limited and incomplete sample information

Make Make generalizations about generalizations about the characteristics of the characteristics of population... aapopulation...

On the basis of On the basis of observations of observations of aa sample, part of sample, aapart of aa population population

SAMPLING
SELECTION OF UNITS FOR THE STUDY FORM POPULATION

PROBABILITY SAMPLING

NON PROBABILITY SAMPLING

PROBABILITY SAMPLING

SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING [SRS]W R & WOR

STRATIFIED SAMPLING

SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING

NON PROBABILITY SANPLING

JUDGEMENT

Snow ball

Convenience

SAMPLE SIZE
S = range/6 SRS a) for mean, n= (Z/)2 * S2 b) for proportion, n=(Z/ )2 *pq STRATIFIED
a) proportionate, n=(Z/ )2 *{(Ni/N) Si2} b) disproportionate, n=(Z/ )2 *{(Ni Si /N) }2
605 600 595 590 585 580 575 570 565 1 2 3 4 5 S e r ie s 1

ni = n(NiSi )/(Ni Si)

 A sample statistic is a numerical measure of a summary characteristic of a sample.

5-2 Sample Statistics as Estimators of Population Parameters

A population parameter is a numerical measure of a summary characteristic of a population.

An estimator of a population parameter is a sample

statistic used to estimate or predict the population parameter. An estimate of a parameter is a particular numerical value of a sample statistic obtained through sampling. A point estimate is a single value used as an estimate of a population parameter.

Estimators
The sample mean, is the most common The sample mean, X ,, is the most common estimator of the population mean, estimator of the population mean, .. The sample variance, 2, is the most common The sample variance, ss2, is the most common estimator of the population variance, 22. estimator of the population variance, . The sample standard deviation, s, is the most The sample standard deviation, s, is the most common estimator of the population standard common estimator of the population standard deviation, deviation, .. The sample proportion, is the most common The sample proportion, p,, is the most common estimator of the population proportion, p. estimator of the population proportion, p.

5-3 Sampling Distributions

The sampling distribution of a statistic is the probability distribution of all possible values the statistic may assume, when computed from random samples of the same size, drawn from a specified population. The sampling distribution of X is the probability distribution of all possible values the random variable may assume when a sample X of size n is taken from a specified population.

Sampling Distributions (Continued)

Uniform population of integers from 1 to 8:
X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 P(X) 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 1.000 XP(X) 0.125 0.250 0.375 0.500 0.625 0.750 0.875 1.000 4.500 (X- x) -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 (X- x)2 12.25 6.25 2.25 0.25 0.25 2.25 6.25 12.25 P(X)(X- x)2 1.53125 0.78125 0.28125 0.03125 0.03125 0.28125 0.78125 1.53125 5.25000
0.2

Uniform Distribution (1,8)

P(X)

0.1

0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

E(X) = = 4.5 V(X) = 2 = 5.25 SD(X) = = 2.2913

Sampling Distributions (Continued)

There are 8*8 = 64 different but equally-likely samples of size 2 that can be drawn (with replacement) from a uniform population of the integers from from Uniform (1,8) Samples of Size 2 1 to 8:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 1,1 2,1 3,1 4,1 5,1 6,1 7,1 8,1 2 1,2 2,2 3,2 4,2 5,2 6,2 7,2 8,2 3 1,3 2,3 3,3 4,3 5,3 6,3 7,3 8,3 4 1,4 2,4 3,4 4,4 5,4 6,4 7,4 8,4 5 1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5 7,5 8,5 6 1,6 2,6 3,6 4,6 5,6 6,6 7,6 8,6 7 1,7 2,7 3,7 4,7 5,7 6,7 7,7 8,7 8 1,8 2,8 3,8 4,8 5,8 6,8 7,8 8,8

Each of these samples has a sample mean. For example, the mean of the sample (1,4) is 2.5, and the mean of the sample (8,4) is 6.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Sample Means from Uniform (1,8), n = 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

Sampling Distributions (Continued)

The probability distribution of the sample mean is called the sampling distribution of the the sample mean. mean
Sampling Distribution of the Mean
P(X) 0.015625 0.031250 0.046875 0.062500 0.078125 0.093750 0.109375 0.125000 0.109375 0.093750 0.078125 0.062500 0.046875 0.031250 0.015625 XP(X) 0.015625 0.046875 0.093750 0.156250 0.234375 0.328125 0.437500 0.562500 0.546875 0.515625 0.468750 0.406250 0.328125 0.234375 0.125000 X- -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
X

Sampling Distribution of the Mean

(X- X)2 12.25 9.00 6.25 4.00 2.25 1.00 0.25 0.00 0.25 1.00 2.25 4.00 6.25 9.00 12.25

P(X)(X- X)2
0.10

0.191406 0.281250 0.292969 0.250000 0.175781 0.093750 0.027344 0.000000 0.027344 0.093750 0.175781 0.250000 0.292969 0.281250 0.191406 2.625000

P(X)
0.05 0.00 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

E ( X ) = X = 4.5 V ( X ) = 2 = 2.625 X SD( X ) = X = 1.6202

1.000000 4.500000

When sampling from normal population with mean and standard When sampling from aanormal population with mean and standard deviation the sample mean, X, has normal sampling deviation ,,the sample mean, X, has aanormal sampling distribution: distribution 2 distribution: distribution
X ~ N (, n )

Sampling from a Normal Population

This means that, as the This means that, as the sample size increases, the sample size increases, the sampling distribution of the sampling distribution of the sample mean remains sample mean remains centered on the population centered on the population mean, but becomes more mean, but becomes more compactly distributed around compactly distributed around that population mean that population mean

Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

0.4

Sampling Distribution: n =16

0.3

Sampling Distribution: n =4

f(X)

0.2

0.1

Sampling Distribution: n =2
Normal population

Normal population
0.0