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for resilient landscapes, lifestyles and livelihoods in a carbon, water, energy & nutrient-constrained world nutrient-
Andrew Campbell
Kinglake Ranges Food Futures Visioning Session Kinglake, 13 October 2010 www.triplehelix.com.au
Personal declarations
Farming background south-western Victoria south Family farming in the district since 1860s, own farm managed since 1987 450ha near Cavendish: 30% farm forestry, 10% environmental reserves, 60% leased to a neighbour for prime lambs
Forestry & rural sociology: Creswick, Melbourne & Wageningen Forester Victorian government
Vacation work at Toolangi 1978
First National Landcare Facilitator 89-92 89 Environment Australia SES 1995-2000 1995 CEO Land & Water Australia 2000-06 2000-
Outline
1. Drivers for more sustainable food systems
Food security Climate change Water Energy Land & nutrients
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Is critically dependent on climate, water, energy, land and nutrients Is affected by constraints or perturbations in any of these factors
Some people are (wrongly) trying to represent the last decade as indicating a cooling trend.
Water
Each calorie takes one litre of water to produce, on average Like the Murray Darling Basin, all the worlds major food producing basins are effectively closed or already over-committed
In Victoria, last 7 years the driest 7 years since records have been kept. Inflows to Melbourne storages since 1997 35% lower than prior to 1997.
Climate change and oil depletion is narrowing those options, with limits to water, land, energy & nutrients Rich consumers have major concerns about modern industrial food systems
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World
Australia
Rising oil costs = rising costs for fertiliser, agrichemicals, transport and food
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Energy (2)
a significant risk of a peak in conventional oil production before 2020. The risks presented by global oil depletion deserve much more serious attention by the research and policy communities. UK Energy Research Centre, An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production, August 2009
we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day
Dr Fatih Birol, Chief Economist IEA, 3 August 2009 The challenge of feeding 7 or 8 billion people while oil supplies are falling is stupefying. Itll be even greater if governments keep pretending that it isnt going to happen. George Monbiot,The Guardian 16.11.09
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http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2008/1000874/index.html
Our challenge now is to radically reduce the energy, carbon and water-intensity of our economy
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Climate-water-energy feedbacks
Saving water often uses more energy, and vice-versa Efforts to moderate climate often use more energy +/or water
E.g. coal-fired power stations with CCS will be 25-33% more water-intensive
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Intensifying pressure on the resource base Greater exposure & vulnerability to rising energy & nutrient prices Intensifying competition for rural land & water Increasing greenhouse gas emissions Ever-declining water security and energy security Exacerbating pressures on rural communities
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Integration -across issues e.g climate, energy, food & water -across scales fixing the Federation -across the triple helix -landscapes, lifestyles & livelihoods
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Types of Response
We need to be operating in each of these quadrants Develop research partnerships +/or link into existing collaborations
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The obvious option for Kinglake is the second one This means high levels of quality assurance, distinctive regional branding strategies, close contact with customers, local value adding where possible.
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Cities suck in water, energy and nutrients from their hinterland Much of which becomes waste Replumbing, rewiring and restumping is required on a massive scale Cities also suck in people, and are part of the solution, not the problem Peri-urban areas like Kinglake Ranges should see the city as a major ally and opportunity
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By and large, I believe the public service gives good advice on incremental
policy improvement. Where we fall down is in long-term, transformational thinking; the big picture stuff. We are still more reactive than proactive; more inward than outward looking. We are allergic to risk, sometimes infected by a culture of timidity. The APS still generates too much policy within single departments and agencies to address challenges that span a range of departments and agencies We are not good at recruiting creative thinkers.
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http://www.dpmc.gov.au/media/speech_2009_07_15.cfm
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http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401
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http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401
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http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401
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http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401
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http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401
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To avoid scaring people, or perceptions of blame To bring people along on a challenging journey To build understanding, skills and capacity To honour the past, while inventing a new future To attract talent
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Building resilience
What determines resilience, in general?*
Diversity: biological, economic (e.g. energy sources),
social
Modularity (connectedness, engagement) Tightness of feedbacks Openness immigration, inflows, outflows Reserves and other reservoirs (e.g. seedbanks,
nutrient pools, soil moisture, memory, knowledge)
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Overlapping institutions Polycentric (distributed) governance & leadership Are any of these changing? Are any limiting?
Thoughts on governance
Resilience theory and the principle of subsidiarity underline the need for local leadership and governance structures formal and informal Highly centralised models will always struggle in dynamic, complex and chaotic situations This also applies for business models, yet innovative new food systems will need capital and critical mass Co-operatives offer a good option for scaling up, for value-adding and for marketing
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Integrating and/or replacing regional catchment strategies and local government planning, zoning, rating and development approval processes
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GO FOR IT !!
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