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Envisioning Food Systems

for resilient landscapes, lifestyles and livelihoods in a carbon, water, energy & nutrient-constrained world nutrient-

Andrew Campbell
Kinglake Ranges Food Futures Visioning Session Kinglake, 13 October 2010 www.triplehelix.com.au

Personal declarations
Farming background south-western Victoria south Family farming in the district since 1860s, own farm managed since 1987 450ha near Cavendish: 30% farm forestry, 10% environmental reserves, 60% leased to a neighbour for prime lambs

Forestry & rural sociology: Creswick, Melbourne & Wageningen Forester Victorian government
Vacation work at Toolangi 1978

First National Landcare Facilitator 89-92 89 Environment Australia SES 1995-2000 1995 CEO Land & Water Australia 2000-06 2000-

Outline
1. Drivers for more sustainable food systems
Food security Climate change Water Energy Land & nutrients

2. Challenges & opportunities


Technical Policy Community
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For more info


e.g. Paddock to Plate
Policy Propositions for Sustainable Food Systems & Background Paper

www.triplehelix.com.au
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1. Drivers for more sustainable food systems


World food demand Climate chaos Water scarcity Energy security Soil, nutrients & other resource constraints Human health & animal welfare The policy responses to all of the above
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The Food System


Has a very large environmental footprint
E.g. more than half total household water consumption

Is critically dependent on climate, water, energy, land and nutrients Is affected by constraints or perturbations in any of these factors

The core problem: population & carbon emissions

Source: WBCSD & IUCN 2008; Harvard Medical School 2008

Some people are (wrongly) trying to represent the last decade as indicating a cooling trend.

Water
Each calorie takes one litre of water to produce, on average Like the Murray Darling Basin, all the worlds major food producing basins are effectively closed or already over-committed

Melbournes Annual Storage Inflow GL (1913-2007)

In Victoria, last 7 years the driest 7 years since records have been kept. Inflows to Melbourne storages since 1997 35% lower than prior to 1997.

Climate change impact on water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin

Feeding the world


The world needs to increase food production by about 70% by 2050, & improve distribution We have done this in the past, mainly through clearing, cultivating and irrigating more land
and intensification, better varieties, more fertiliser, pesticides etc

Climate change and oil depletion is narrowing those options, with limits to water, land, energy & nutrients Rich consumers have major concerns about modern industrial food systems
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human health, animal welfare, environment, fair trade

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But maybe we aint seen nothin yet.

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World

Energy & nutrients


The era of abundant, cheap fossil fuels is coming to a close

Australia

Rising oil costs = rising costs for fertiliser, agrichemicals, transport and food

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Energy (2)
a significant risk of a peak in conventional oil production before 2020. The risks presented by global oil depletion deserve much more serious attention by the research and policy communities. UK Energy Research Centre, An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production, August 2009

we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day
Dr Fatih Birol, Chief Economist IEA, 3 August 2009 The challenge of feeding 7 or 8 billion people while oil supplies are falling is stupefying. Itll be even greater if governments keep pretending that it isnt going to happen. George Monbiot,The Guardian 16.11.09
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Land & soil


The FAO recently assessed trends in land condition (measured by net primary productivity) from 1981-2004 Land degradation is increasing in severity and extent: >20 percent of all cultivated areas >30 percent of forests >10 percent of grasslands 1.5 billion people depend directly on land that is being degraded Land degradation is cumulative. Limited overlap between 24% of the
land surface identified as degraded now and the 15% classified in 1991, because NPP has flatlined near zero in flogged areas
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http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2008/1000874/index.html

Water, energy, and GDP


Water and energy have historically been closely coupled with GDP in Australia Water & GDP

Energy & GDP

Our challenge now is to radically reduce the energy, carbon and water-intensity of our economy

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from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)

Climate-water-energy feedbacks
Saving water often uses more energy, and vice-versa Efforts to moderate climate often use more energy +/or water
E.g. coal-fired power stations with CCS will be 25-33% more water-intensive

Using more fossil energy exacerbates climate chaos

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from Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Steffen & Troy (2007)

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Where does Business as Usual take us?


A food system less capable of delivering healthy, affordable food reliably in a variable climate
Murrindindi among the highest levels of food insecurity in Victoria > 11% of people run out of food, unable to afford more (before fires)


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Intensifying pressure on the resource base Greater exposure & vulnerability to rising energy & nutrient prices Intensifying competition for rural land & water Increasing greenhouse gas emissions Ever-declining water security and energy security Exacerbating pressures on rural communities

2. Technical challenges & opportunities


1. To decouple economic growth from carbon emissions 2. To increase water productivity,
decoupling the every calorie = 1 litre relationship

3. To increase energy productivity


more food energy out per unit of energy in while shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy while conserving biodiversity and improving landscape amenity, soil health, animal welfare & human health

4. To develop more sustainable food systems

5. To achieve all of the above simultaneously!


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The integration imperative


Managing whole landscapes
- where nature meets culture (Schama) - landscapes are socially constructed - beyond ecological apartheid - NRM means people management - engage values, perceptions, aspirations, behaviour

Integration -across issues e.g climate, energy, food & water -across scales fixing the Federation -across the triple helix -landscapes, lifestyles & livelihoods
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Types of Response
We need to be operating in each of these quadrants Develop research partnerships +/or link into existing collaborations

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Source: FFI CRC EverCrop

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The Cynefin knowledge framework*


Climate change spans all of these domains If temp increase > 2C, then disorder & chaos will reign The challenge is to handle the necessary range of simultaneous responses
to work in all of these domains at once to develop a system-wide perspective & the knowledge systems and learning strategies to underpin that perspective
* David Snowden & Mary Boone (2007) Leader's Framework for Decision Making Harvard Business Review

We need a third agricultural revolution


what might it look like?
Closed loop farming systems (water, energy, nutrients, carbon) Better understanding of soil carbon & microbial activity Radically reducing waste in all parts of the food chain Farming systems producing renewable bioenergy (2nd generation) Smart metering, sensing, telemetry, robotics, guidance Urban food production, recycling waste streams & urban water
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New/old food marketing systems Detailed product specification

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A two-tiered food system?


Potential divergence of the food system into two tiers:
1. High volume, undifferentiated commodities on low margins for world market prices farmers price takers 2. More differentiated, highly specified produce for more discerning markets, emphasising both functional and nonfunctional brand attributes tailored to customer demands

The obvious option for Kinglake is the second one This means high levels of quality assurance, distinctive regional branding strategies, close contact with customers, local value adding where possible.
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Cities suck in water, energy and nutrients from their hinterland Much of which becomes waste Replumbing, rewiring and restumping is required on a massive scale Cities also suck in people, and are part of the solution, not the problem Peri-urban areas like Kinglake Ranges should see the city as a major ally and opportunity
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Innovation & Research Opportunities


Urban food production (shorter supply chains) Forensic mapping of stocks and flows of water, energy, nutrients and biomass in urban and peri-urban areas to identify opportunities for use in food production Integrate the above 2 points into Food Sensitive Urban Design Opportunities from waste (e.g. algal biodiesel) Spatial optimisation for food, water, carbon & energy from a regional planning perspective Integrated farming of food, energy (biofuels & bioenergy) & carbon site and landscape scale
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3. Policy challenges & opportunities


time for new alliances & perspectives
Healthy farms, healthy landscapes, healthy soils, healthy food, healthy people & healthy communities are interconnected We are not used to seeing the farming system, the energy system or the water system, or planning & urban design for that matter, as connected to the health system
Source: Tyrchniewicz and McDonald (2007)

This needs to change

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Perspectives from the top of the APS


Terry Moran, Institute of Public Administration, 15 July 2009:
Reflecting on the challenges of public sector reform:

By and large, I believe the public service gives good advice on incremental
policy improvement. Where we fall down is in long-term, transformational thinking; the big picture stuff. We are still more reactive than proactive; more inward than outward looking. We are allergic to risk, sometimes infected by a culture of timidity. The APS still generates too much policy within single departments and agencies to address challenges that span a range of departments and agencies We are not good at recruiting creative thinkers.
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http://www.dpmc.gov.au/media/speech_2009_07_15.cfm

A food policy agenda


Propositions from Campbell (2009) Paddock to Plate (published by the ACF & also at www.triplehelix.com.au)

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http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401

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A food policy agenda (2)

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http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401

A food policy agenda (3)

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http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401

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A food policy agenda (4)

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http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401

A food policy agenda (5)

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http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401

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Implications for communities


PROFOUND SOCIAL CHALLENGES:

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To avoid scaring people, or perceptions of blame To bring people along on a challenging journey To build understanding, skills and capacity To honour the past, while inventing a new future To attract talent

The community imperative


Rapid, often surprising, on-going environmental change will challenge governments and industries, and stress communities Many responses (proactive and reactive) will need to be designed and/or interpreted at regional and local levels. Successful implementation depends on community support. We need environmentally literate and capable bodies at this scale, with strong community support and involving community leaders, that bridge government and community, public and private Policy convergence in climate, energy, water and food systems mandates integrated planning & delivery

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Building resilience
What determines resilience, in general?*
Diversity: biological, economic (e.g. energy sources),
social

Modularity (connectedness, engagement) Tightness of feedbacks Openness immigration, inflows, outflows Reserves and other reservoirs (e.g. seedbanks,
nutrient pools, soil moisture, memory, knowledge)

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Overlapping institutions Polycentric (distributed) governance & leadership Are any of these changing? Are any limiting?

* Source: Brian Walker http://www.australia21.org.au/buildingAustraliasResilience-papers.htm

Thoughts on governance
Resilience theory and the principle of subsidiarity underline the need for local leadership and governance structures formal and informal Highly centralised models will always struggle in dynamic, complex and chaotic situations This also applies for business models, yet innovative new food systems will need capital and critical mass Co-operatives offer a good option for scaling up, for value-adding and for marketing

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Land Use Planning & Design


Vic already post-agricultural in some regions (Neil Barr) We have some elements of a new paradigm
Ecoservices etc Carbon offsets market (Greenfleet et al) New corporate players e.g. VicSuper, energy companies

And we know areas that need to expand


Water conservation Habitat restoration and reconnection Residential (600,000 new homes just for Melb) Renewable energy (wind, solar, biomass, biogas)
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How can this all fit at a landscape and regional scale?


The landscape needs to be re-plumbed, re-wired and re-clothed We need new regional planning approaches that:
are robust under a range of climate change & demographic scenarios build in resilience thinking (e.g. improve habitat connectivity & buffering, protect refugia) accommodate carbon pollution mitigation options (energy, transport, food) safeguard productive soil and allow for increased food production facilitate recycling of water, nutrients and energy

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Integrating and/or replacing regional catchment strategies and local government planning, zoning, rating and development approval processes

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A new peri-urban paradigm?


Thoughts from a lay perspective How to transform McMansion suburbs? Protecting good soils without constraining the ability of ageing farmers to cash out? Reconciling private space, property rights & individuality with public goals of food, water, energy, biodiversity, amenity, fire Learning from Europe - live in village, commute to farm?

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Take home messages


We (Kinglake especially!) are living through a period of unprecedented environmental change, that is likely to intensify this is not a blip Business as usual is not a viable trajectory New alliances are needed across the health, food and farming systems, and along the food value chain Peri-urban areas with good soils and reliable water are a strategic asset of national significance
Kinglake can pilot new approaches to food in a drying climate Building more resilient landscapes, lifestyles and livelihoods This is about innovation & leadership

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GO FOR IT !!

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For more info

e.g. Paddock to Plate


Policy Propositions for Sustainable Food Systems

www.triplehelix.com.au
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