LIKELY IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES AND THEIR AVAILABILITY IN NIGERIA. Keynote presentation by Prof.

LekanOyebande lekanoye@hotmail.com BREAD OF LIFE FOUNDATION 1st Dialogue on Water and Climate Change 2nd February 2011 @ Arch Bishop Vining Memorial Anglican Church Cathedral, Ikeja, Lagos.

INTRODUCTION
Climate

variability & change put pressure on the hydrological cycle and freshwater ecosystems.
Has

become our new reality- brings with it changes in weather patterns that upset seasonal cycles, harm ecosystems and water supply, affect agriculture and food production, cause sea-levels to rise.

INTRODUCTION 2
Impact

of CV&C includes floods, landslides, drought and famine: has a cumulative effect on natural resources, esp. water balance ( e.g. hydrological cycle storages such as lakes & groundwater) weather becomes fiercer and storms increase in frequency and intensity, serious socioeconomic consequences result. Malnutrition and diseases become common occurrences.

As

GCM predictions summarized 1 Under business-as-usual scenario (if nothing is done to reduce emissions) a global warming of 1.4 to 5.8C over the period 1990 to 2100 The earths sea level is expected to rise (IPCC 2001b) by 0.09 to 0.88 metres between 1990 and 2100. Regional and seasonal warming predictions are much more uncertain, but are improving

GCM predictions summarized 2

Inland regions will warm faster than ocean and coastal areas; Total precipitation is predicted to increase, but the local level trends are less certain. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as storms/storm surges and hurricanes may change.

Rainfall variability
Drought of the early 1970s have had strong consequences for the hydrological cycle and water resources of W/Africa e.g. in Nigeria. Monthly rainfall data show that the dry period is characterised by a decrease in the number of rainy events, while the mean storm rainfall varies little. In northern Nigeria, the decrease of the rainfall is closely linked to a decrease in the number of events, extreme in its southern extreme. The decrease is very important for the core of the rainy season (July and August).

Rainfall variability Rainfall deficit of the recent decades (1970-2000) is correlated to a general decrease in the occurrence of rainfall events rather than to the average intensity of the rainy events or the shortening of the rainy season. Challenges for scientists are; to determine the causes of the decrease in the number of rainfall events; & to indicate how climate variability could be taken into account to improve water resources management strategies.

Table 1 Decadal variations of precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) over eight basin areas in West and Central Africa: deviation from the 1951-1989 average in %.
River System/Area Sngal/Gambia Rivers North Guinea : River. Corubal, Konkoure South Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia Rivers Niger River at the mouth of the basin: Onitsha (this includes the Benue River) North Coast of Gulf of Guinea : Cote dIvoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin Coastal Rivers of Nigeria, Central Cameroon : Mungo, Wouri, Sanaga Angola, incl. Cubango & Cunene Rivers, and except Zaire River Basin South Cameroon: Nyong & Ntem Riv. Gabon/Congo: Kouilou/Ogooue/Nyanga Zaire/Congo River P Q P Q P Q P Q P Q P Q P Q P Q 1951-1960 +23,0 +32,6 +10,3 +19,6 +11,3 +14,8 +9,3 +23,4 +3,1 +10,5 +2,6 +1,2 +1,7 -1,2 +1,3 -4,0 1961-1970 +13,0 +23,6 +5,2 +15,7 +3,1 +13,4 +4,6 +21,8 +7,4 +12,6 +8,3 +8,7 +3,6 +11,5 +3,2 +14,7 1971-1980 -8,5 -24,1 -3,5 -9,3 -4,2 -8,7 -5,5 -18,4 -1,4 -9,3 -5,2 -6,9 -3,2 -6,9 -2,9 -1,8 1981-1989 -16,5 -35,7 -13,3 -28,8 -11,2 -21,5 -9,4 -29,9 -9,6 -15,3 -6,1 -4,0 -1,4 -3,9 -0,6 -9,9 Cumul 71-89 -25,0 -59,8 -26,8 -38,1 -15,4 -30,2 -14,9 -48,3 -11,0 -24,6 -11,3 -10,9 -4,6 -10,8 -3,5 -11,7

Change rainfall values at selected Nigerian Stations during the pre-1979 to post 1979 periods

Region Station Average Rainfall before 1979 NW NE NE CW CE SW SE SE Sokoto

Average Rainfall Decreasing in the 1980s Rate (%) 535 684 455 1,155 1,273 1,372 1,593 2,765 24 18 32 10 8 16 11 2

Jos Ikeja Calabar

706 839 672 1,290 1,378 1,625 1,795 2,823

Cross River basin Water Resources availability (1995).

Drainage Area = 73.5 103 km2 Annual Runoff = 65.7 109 m3 (24.5% of national total) Specific Yield = 898 mm-yr Drainage outside Nigeria: 13.4 103 km2 Average rainfall before 1979 2,823 mm-yr Average rainfall in the 1990s 2,765 mm-yr (decrease rate - 2%) Surface water demand 2020 (South East, Regions V & VII : 2,820 mm-yr (Irrigation accounts for 2530 mm-yr of demand)

Rainfall variability and runoff response : Magnification in the Hydrological system Rainfall variability in Nigeria has a drastic effect on river discharges. A deficit of 20 to 30% in rainfall results in a water shortage or deficit of 40 to 60%.
Nemec

and Schaake (1982) reported that a 1% change in precipitation will produce a 2% change in reliable runoff yield while a decrease of 25% in precipitation in a tropical basin gives more than 400% increase in required storage.

Hydrological Magnification
Research

also shows that 15% reduction in rainfall could lead to a 45% reduction in groundwater recharge (Sandstrom, 1995). Groundwater-streamflow interactions under conditions of climate change require thorough investigation in Nigeria.

Other consequences of persistent drought on West African region

A decrease of water table flows in the alluvial aquifers resulting in a decrease of base flows; A decrease of the non-dissolved solid transportation capacity due to the severe low flows; A reduction of the capacity of rivers in sediment transport while air, mechanical and hydraulic erosion has been accentuated. This process leads to increased river siltation.

Main impacts of streamflow modification 1

Reduction in stream flows and decreased capacity to transport sediments;

Water quality changes due to reduced dilution capacity ; Reduced extent and health of wetlands areas; Reduced groundwater recharge and reduced aquifer capacity;

Main impacts of streamflow modification 2

Depletion of fish stocks and species diversity; Increased soil erosion;

Water scarcity as a result of diminishing precipitation, reduction in river flows, falling water tables, and an increase in the amount of evapotranspiration.

5 15'E 13 15'N 5 15'E 13 15'N

5 2O'E 5 2O'E

5 25'E 5 25'E

5 30'E 13 15'N 5 30'E 13 15'N

13 15'N

5 2O'E 13 15'N 5 2O'E

5 25'E 5 25'E

5 30'E 5 30'E
13 15'N
13 05' N

5 15'E

IM

IM

R IV

R IV

WURNO LGA WURNO LGA

RIVER RIMA RIVER RIMA

Ri ve Riv rG e il

WURNO LGA WURNO LGA

Ri ve

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KWARE LGA KWARE LGA

KWARE LGA KWARE LGA

13 10'N

13 10'N

13 15'N
13 05' N

5 15'E

er Riv

a heil er S Riv eila Sh

13 10'N

13 10'N

(a)
WAMAKO LGA WAMAKO LGA

WAMAKO LGA WAMAKO LGA

RIV ER13 10'N RIM RIV A ER RIM A

13 10'N

13 10'N

RABAH LGA RABAH LGA

TO KO TO SO KO ER SO RIV ER RIV

RABAH LGA RABAH LGA

Riv er Rij Ri i ve rR iji

13 05' N 13 05' N

TO KO O SO OT ER OK RIV RS E RIV

13 05'N

13 05'N

13 05'N

13 05'N

SOKOTO LGA SOKOTO LGA

rIVER rIJISOKOTO LGA rIVER rIJISOKOTO LGA

KWARE LGA KWARE LGA

13 00'N 13 00'N

13 00'N

13 00'N
5 20' E

5 15' 13 00'N E

5 25' E
5 20' E

5 15' E

5 25' E

Extract Extract From Fig. From Fig. 5.2 5.2

13 00'N

DANGE - SHUNI LGA DANGE - SHUNI LGA

13 00'N

DANDE / SHUNI LGA DANDE / SHUNI LGA

5 15' E 5 15' E 5 20' E 5 20' E 5 25' E 5 25' E

5 30'E 13 00'N 5 30'E

EXTRACT FROM FIG. 5.1 EXTRACT FROM FIG. 5.1

5 30'E

5 30'E

EE

KM 0 0 2 2 KM 4 4 6 6

The surface drainage network characteristics in the Sokoto-Rima Basin (Sahelian part) of northern Nigeria in (a) 1965 and (b) 1995.

13 10'N

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TO KO SO ER O RIV OKOT S ER RIV

RIV

TO KO SO O ER OT RIV SOK ER

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Disaster Flood Flood Flood Flood Flood Flood

Date 13Sep94 Aug1988

27Aug 2001

Affected 580,000 300,000 143,800 100,000 90,000 25,000

Source:"EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Universit catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium"

10 Oct 1998 1 Oct 1999 Dec 1999

Some of the top 10 Natural Disasters in Nigeria - Floods

[1] 200 people killed

Impact on Sea level and Coastal Zones and Marine Ecosystems Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 metres between 1990 and 2100, for the full range of scenarios. Expected impact on coastal region include increases in sea surface temperature and mean global sea level, changes in salinity, wave conditions, and ocean circulation. Disruption of marine ecosystems dynamics, with significant impacts on fish-dependent human societies Many coastal areas will experience increased levels of flooding, accelerated erosion, loss of wetlands and mangroves, and seawater intrusion into freshwater sources

Impact on Sea level and Coastal Zones and Marine Ecosystems 2

The extent and severity of storm impacts, including stormsurge floods and shore erosion, will increase. The coastal Nigerias coastal zone may render it more vulnerable to such impacts. excursion length around the Niger Delta suggests increasing salinization of upland ground water; Sea-beds reworked by storm waves threaten the integrity of offshore buried oil pipelines leading to rupture and oil spillage;

The receding shoreline coupled with the 30 to 60 km tidal

Consequences of climate variability and change on coastal zones of some West African countries with a 0.5 m sea level rise by 2100
Land lost by erosion (km2) Areas to be flooded (km2) 1,650 45.89 (281.3) 471 17.5 Population at risk (thousands) 69-104 n.a. 1,475 Economic value at risk(millions of US $[1]) 345-464 n.a. 4,710[2] Protection costs (millions of US $) 146-575 n.a. n.a. 215.25

Senegal
Gambia Cte dIvoire Benin Nigeria

28-44 n.a. n.a. 22.5

78-145

8,864

1,600

9,003.3

223-319

[1] The US dollar value is that of the time of the study. [2] This value is the equivalent of the national budget of Cte dIvoire!

Mean Annual Rainfall projections

Based on SRES A2 Scenario (mm)

Data point

Nearest Settlement/ State Birni, Kebbi Gusau, Zamfara Damaturu, Yobe Meko, Ogun Ankpa, Gasaka, Adamawa Port Harcourt, River

Mid Thirty-year time slice 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 730 693 511 730 730 511 766 730 547 803 766 547 803 803 584 1277 1715 1569 2555

2100 839 839 584 1314 1752 1606 2628

A B C D E F G

1241 1241 1277 1277 1606 1642 1679 1715 1423 1460 1496 1533 2372 2409 2445 2518

Based on SRES B1 Scenario (mm)

Data Points

Nearest Settlement /State Birni, Kebbi Gusau, Zamfara Damaturu, Yobe Meko, Ogun Ankpa, Gasaka, Adamawa Port Harcourt, Rivers

2000 730 693 511 1241 1606 1423 2372

Mid Thirty- Year Time Slice 2020 2040 2060 2080 730 693 511 1241 1642 1423 2409 730 730 511 1241 1642 1460 2445 766 730 547 1277 1679 1496 2482 766 766 547 1277 1679 1496 2482

2100 803 766 547 1277 1715 1533 2518

A B C D E F G

Projected rainfall regime In the forest zone of southern Nigeria, projections indicate an increase in rainfall during the rainy season months and a decrease during the dry season months, esp. December-February. Probability of the dry season becoming drier while the rainy season becomes wetter. Port Harcourt: rainfall of December, January and February is projected to decline respectively by 18mm, 15mm and 10mm, the respective rainfall of June, July and October will increase by 65mm, 20mm and 47mm.

Decadal variations of precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) : deviation from the 1951-1989 average in %. River System/Area 1951-60 1961-70 1971-80 1981-89 Cumul 7189 R. Niger at mouth P +11.3 +3.1 -4.2 -11.2 -15.4 Niger at Onitsha Q +14.8 +13.4 +4.6 +21.8 +7.4 +12.6 -8.7 -5.5 -18.4 -1.4 -9.3 -21.5 -9.4 -29.9 -9.6 -15.3 -30.2 -14.9 -48.3 -11.0 -24.6

North coast of Gulf P +9.3 of Guinea : Cote dIvoire Ghana, Togo, Benin Q +23.4 Coastal Rivers of P +3.1 Nigeria: Central Cameroon: Mungo, Q +10.5 Wouri, Sanaga

Rainfall variability and runoff response : Magnification in the Hydrological system Rainfall variability in Nigeria has a drastic effect on river discharges. A deficit of 20 to 30% in rainfall results in a water shortage or deficit of 40 to 60%.
Nemec

and Schaake (1982) reported that a 1% change in precipitation will produce a 2% change in reliable runoff yield while a decrease of 25% in precipitation in a tropical basin gives more than 400% increase in required storage.

Mitigation versus Adaptation (CPO15) The initial focus/objective of coordinated global climate change action has been to promote mitigation, global action which will reduce the emissions that cause global warming. Focus on understanding the sources of the so-called greenhouse gases which cause warming and how their emission from human sources may be reduced. We now know that some degree of climate change is inevitable, increasing attention has been given to the promotion of adaptation, assisting countries to adjust to the effects of climate change.

IWRM AND ADAPTATION

Integrated

water resources management (IWRM) as a veritable tool for adaptation to climate change impacts on water resources

Impact on Water Resources and Food Security

Introduction About 10% of all crops are irrigated, while 43% of the global grain production originates from irrigated lands From all water diverted, 62% is used for irrigation and 21% and 17% for domestic use and industry, respectively. Adequate water supply will guarantee sufficient food to sustain the growing population and ease the present chronic food insecurity in the world in general and West Africa in particular

Water for food and agriculture Water is essential for broad based agricultural production and rural development in order to improve food security. Efforts should be made to reduce unsustainable water management and improve the efficiency of agricultural water use, that is, water productivity. Inland fisheries being a major source of food, freshwater production should be addressed though intensified efforts to improve water quality and quantity in rivers and protection or restoration of breeding areas.

Water for food and agriculture

Innovative

and strategic investment, research and development together with international cooperation should be promoted to improve agricultural water management by means of participatory irrigation management, water harvesting, water-saving/drought-resistant crop varieties, water storage, and dissemination of agricultural best practices.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION