Future Earth

Steve Dutch University of Wisconsin-Green Bay

Why Look Ahead?

Usually picture geologic time by looking back New Perspective Can you picture the U.S. in 1000 years? Thats an instant in geologic time Human activities are ephemeral compared to geologic time

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Humans in 1000 years

Probably many cities and nations will still be extant

10,000 years
50-70 M=8 quakes on San Andreas 100 Cascades eruptions 10-20 Mississippi delta shifts Niagara Falls retreats 9 kilometers Hawaii moves 900 meters Probable meteor impact with regional effects Hudsons Bay and Baltic drained Dozens of Supernovas Earth axis tilt 22-1/2 degrees

Humans in 10,000 years

In 8,000 years we got from proto-IndoEuropean to English, Latin and Russian Time enough for new languages to evolve Will any word in any language still survive?

100,000 years
San Andreas shifted by 2.5 kilometers 1000 Cascades eruptions 100-200 Mississippi delta shifts Niagara Falls retreated to Lake Erie Loihi reaches surface Numerous meteor impacts with regional effects probable Next ice age? New stars may form

The Future Gulf Coast

Stars Change Faster than the Earth

Humans in 100,000 years

Time enough to develop our civilization from Paleolithic technology Fewer natural resources but Old human deposits may be better sources than rocks

1,000,000 years
San Andreas shifted by 25 kilometers Large new Cascades volcanoes 1000-2000 Mississippi delta shifts Ten ice ages? Loihi and Kilauea as large as present Mauna Loa Several collapses of Hawaiian shields Several supervolcano eruptions Meteor impact with global effects probable

The Future San Andreas

Bright Stars in the next Million Years

Humans in 1,000,000 years

Human race itself may evolve If society collapses long enough, different gene pools may speciate

What Will Endure 1,000,000 years?

Steel corrodes Titanic and Arizona will be gone in 1000 years. Most likely to survive: no steel, solid
Highway and canal cuts Earth fill dams Open pit mines and mine dumps Large monuments (Mount Rushmore, Pyramids)

What Will They See of Us?

Pleistocene mass extinction Rapid global spread of human artifacts, reduction of forests, and spread of domestic animals Sixth Extinction?
Many endangered organisms would never show up in fossil record Caution in comparing present extinctions with past Our choice

Long-Term Climatic Trends

Brightening of the Sun Capturing of CO2 by carbonate rocks? Moist greenhouse effect Runaway CO2 Greenhouse Effect Venus conditions

Planetary Habitable Zones

Primarily in the Liquid Water Zone Cant be too warm Water Vapor in upper atmosphere broken down by solar UV and charged particles (photodissociation) Hydrogen escapes to space

Planetary Habitable Zones

The Ultimate Long-Term Forecast

Slow warming trend for the next billion years Increasing humidity CO2 decrease leads to extinction of plants? Boiling and evaporation of the oceans

The Oreo Model of Life History

Micro-organism Earth (0-3 billion years) Multicellular Earth (3-5 billion years) Micro-organism Earth (5-6 billion years) The white creamy middle