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THE CITY WE WANT A Strategic Plan for So Paulo

Prof. James Wright Profuturo - USP


INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP - 13th September 2011

Agenda
The need for a long term strategic plan The historical trend scenario Project Methodology and the Delphi Method

A strategic vision for SP 2040


The desired scenario: The City we want

Long range planning is essential for large cities


Without general objectives, partial decisions generate social problems that accumulate over time. A common goal promote synergy between areas, articulates supports and stimulates investments. Most successful large metropolis have 30-year plans. Successful infrastructure firms utilize long term scenarios to define their strategies.

The historical trend scenario: Sao Paulos future if nothing is done !


Chaotic growth Declining quality of life Less dynamic and attractive for companies and a qualified work-force Other cities will overtake So Paulo in terms of employment generation and HDI
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Creating a Strategy for SP2040 : the Methodology


Diagnosis Case Studies

Consultation with specialists

WebDelphi

International workshop: a draft plan

Regional workshops Open Debates Online forums

PLAN SP 2040

Broad consultation with Society

Delphi: an interactive questionnaire to forecast with specialists


Characteristics: Interactive process, at least 2 rounds Anonymous answers Stimulates exchange of information Converges to a near consensus Stimulates creativity Protects minority opinions Eliminates group pressures To be applied when: Structural changes are foreseen Very long term

SP2040 WebDelphi - Round 1:


Large participation: 279 specialists Academic degree:
Bachelor MBA Master/ PhD Other
Graduation

12,8%

36,0%

31,4%

19,8%

Knowledge on the topic: (self assessment)


Very high High Medium Low

60,7%
Private

30,7%
University

5,5%
Government

3,1%
NGOs

Professional sector:

57%

12%

26%

5%

Most propositions had 80% approval


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The desired scenario: The leading city of the Southern Hemisphere


A Global business and innovation center

A Key role on generation and spread of


knowledge, entrepreneurship and investment attraction. An International hub for commerce and logistics Education and technical qualification of its population as the basis for global competitiveness.

SP 2040: THE CITY WE ALL WANT


Cross reaching Goals
To draw together housing and employment To restore environmental quality To modernize urban infrastructure To foster productivity and competitiveness To promote social inclusion Toexpand the citys investment capacity

Structural Axes
Urban development
Strengthen the planning framework and funding of urban policies Promote the functional balance: compact and polycentric urban structure Implement new infrastructure and upgrading the existing one

Mobility and accessibility


Promoting the city equivalent (short distances) Incentive non-motorized means of transportation and requalification, expansion and integration of public transport networks Efficient regional, national and international connection (movement of people and logistics)

Business opportunities
Favorable environment for business Improve the corporate presence in the city Increase the quality of the human capital Promote the knowledge, innovation and entrepreneurial economy

Environmental improvement
Take care of the water and urban rivers Biodiversity and green infrastructure Sustainable management of urban solid waste Control of noise and air pollution. Mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Social cohesion
Reduction of social and territorial inequalities Expansion and improvement of public services

Promotion of identity, belonging feeling and history of the city

Thank you!
Prof. James Wright jtwright@usp.br