September 19, 2012

Objective: We will determine the experimental probability of an event and share ideas using probability to make predictions. Vocabulary: experiment, trial, outcome, sample space, event, probability, prediction
Warm Up: Part I Write the equivalent percent.

1. 2. 3. 4.

30% 20%

25% 16%

An experiment is an activity involving chance. Each repetition or observation of an experiment is a trial, and each possible result is an outcome. The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes.

Example 1: Identifying Sample Spaces and Outcomes Identify the sample space and the outcome shown for each experiment. A. Rolling a number cube Sample space:{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Outcome shown: 4 B. Spinning a spinner Sample space:{red, green, orange, purple} Outcome shown: green

An event is an outcome or set of outcomes in an experiment. Probability is the measure of how likely an event is to occur. Probabilities are written as fractions or decimals from 0 to 1, or as percents from 0% to 100%.

As likely as not Impossible Unlikely 0%

Events with a probability of 0% never happen.

Certain Likely 50%

Events with a probability of 50% have the same chance of happening as not.

100%
Events with a probability of 100% always happen.

Example 2: Estimating the Likelihood of an Event Write impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain to describe each event. A. A shoe selected from a pair of shoes fits the right foot. as likely as not B. Katrina correctly guesses the last digit of a phone number. unlikely C. Max pulls a green marble from a bag of all green marbles. certain D. A randomly selected month contains the letter R. likely

You can estimate the probability of an event by performing an experiment. The experimental probability of an event is the ratio of the number of times the event occurs to the number of trials. The more trials performed, the more accurate the estimate will be.

Example 3A: Finding Experimental Probability

An experiment consists of spinning a spinner. Use the results in the table to find the experimental probability of the event.
Spinner lands on orange

Outcome

Frequency

Green Orange Purple

Pink

15 10 8
7

Example 3B: Finding Experimental Probability

An experiment consists of spinning a spinner. Use the results in the table to find the experimental probability of the event.
Spinner does not land on green

Outcome Green Orange Purple Pink

Frequency 15 10 8 7

You can use experimental probability to make predictions. A prediction is an estimate or guess about something that has not yet happened.

Example 4A: Quality Control Application A manufacturer inspects 500 strollers and finds that 498 have no defects.

What is the experimental probability that a stroller chosen at random has no defects?
Find the experimental probability that a stroller has no defects.

= 99.6% The experimental probability that a stroller has no defects is 99.6%.

Example 4B: Manufacturing Application

A manufacturer inspects 500 strollers and finds that 498 have no defects.
The manufacturer shipped 3500 strollers to a distribution center. Predict the number of strollers that are likely to have no defects. Find 99.6% of 3500. 0.996(3500) = 3486 The prediction is that 3486 strollers will have no defects.