Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
RISK
■ Purpose of Control
■ Control Process
■ Cost/Schedule/Technical Control
■ Introduction to Earned Value
1
Purpose of Control
■ To make the actual meet the plan
■ The Process
■ 1. Key performance areas
■ 2. Set standards
■ 3. Measure performance
■ 4. Compare
■ 5. Fix
2
A Question of Balance
■ Too little control?
■ Too much control?
C
Control
C
Mistakes
Amount of Control
3
What Forms do these
“Standards” Take?
■ Cost
■ Schedule
■ Performance
4
A Control Example
■ You’retwo months into a three
month project. You’ve spent 90%
of your budget.
Defend yourself.
5
Three Important Terms
■ BCWS: The plan, integrating schedule
and budget
6
More Terms
■ BAC: Original budget at completion
7
Four Relationships
■ Cost Variance = BCWP - ACWP
■ Schedule Variance = BCWP - BCWS
■ ECAC = ACWP X BAC
BCWP
■ ETAC = BCWS X TAC
BCWP
8
Changes and Change
Control
■ Thelast step of the control
process: FIX
9
Business Changes (aka
CCPs)
■ Business related
■ Driven by such things as:
■ Spec relief
■ Deliverables changes
■ Funding shifts
■ Schedule changes
■ Acts of God
■ Subcontractor changes
10
Technical Changes (aka
ECPs)
■ Technological issues, such as:
■ New technologies
■ Laws of physics
■ Competitor response
■ Threat changes
■ Changes in user requirements (real
or political)
11
Change Control
■ Changes cost $, usually big $
■ So they need control
■ PM responsibility
■ Signed baselines
■ High levels of authority
■ Some tools:
■ Zero sum/DTC/caps
12
PROJECT RISK
MANAGEMENT
■ Risk defined
■ A brief history
■ Types of project risk
■ The PMBOK sequence
■ Tools
13
RISK DEFINED
■ The likelihood (probability) and
the impact of an undesirable
event
“Fear of harm ought to be proportional not
only to the gravity of the harm, but also to
the probability of the event.” (Antoine
Arnauld, 1665)
■ Bothmatter
■ Examples
14
A BRIEF HISTORY
■ The management of risk forms the
boundary between the old world
and modern times
■ Old world
■ Fates and gods
■ Short time horizons
■ Man’s role: accept, maybe react
15
SO WHAT CHANGED?
■ Rise of rational man
■ Man can plan and influence the future
■ Development of math, probability,
forecasting
■ Multiply XII times VIII
■ Rise of zero and Arabic numerals
■ Rise of trade, business, shipping
■ Longer time horizons
■ Large commercial ventures mean more at stake
16
THE CRITICAL QUESTIONS
■ To what extent does the past foretell
the future?
■ Can we extrapolate from the past to
predict a future event?
“Nature has established patterns originating in the
return of events, but only for the most part.”
17
TYPES OF PROJECT RISK
People
Time
Political Financial
Technical
19
TOOLS FOR RISK
MANAGEMENT (more or
less in order)
■ Expert opinion
■ Simulation
■ Historical Analysis/ “Lessons Learned”
■ “Risk Reduction”
■ Contracting/Procurement Strategy
■ CPFF, FFP, “Make or Buy,” Sole Source, etc.
■ Insurance, bonding
■ Multiple paths
■ Management attention (e.g., “Top 10” Lists)
■ Workarounds
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