THE REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF CONFLICTS ON POLITICAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Prepared by: Frank Emmanuel Muhereza Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Basic Research, Kampala

Presented at the International Conference on Regional Dimensions of Conflicts in the Great Lakes Region, held at Hotel La Mada, Nairobi, 12-14 September 2011 1

IC/GLR Member and Co-opted Countries

Tunisia Morocco Algeria Libya

Egypt

Mauritania Mali Kap Verde Gambia Senegal Burkina Faso Benin Ivory Coast Nigeria Ghana Togo Equatorial Guinea Sao Tome & Principe Gabon Cameroon Chad Guinea-Bissau Guinea Sierra Leone Liberia Niger Eritrea

Sudan
Djibouti

Ethiopia Central African Republic Keny Ugand Cong a a o Democratic Republic Rwand of Congo Tanzani Burundi a a

Somalia

IC/GLR Member States Co-opted Countries

Comoros

Angol a

Namibi a

Zambi a Zimbabw e Botswan a

Mozambiqu e
Mauritius

Malaw i

Madagascar Reunion

South Africa

Swaziland Lesotho

Structure of the Paper

Introduction The Regional dimensions of armed conflicts in the Great Lakes Region Framework for analyzing the regional implications of armed conflicts The regional implications of armed conflicts on economic, political and social spheres Interventions undertaken to mitigate the regional implications of armed conflicts Challenges and Gaps 3 Policy recommendations

Introduction
Conflicts are broadly defined as the different forms of disagreements over values.
Values - perceptions of different categories of individuals about their rights, which define their identity and freedoms. They are a collective expression of beliefs, interests and desire of a particular social group vis--vis another, with regards to how basic needs (security, identity, recognition, devt) are expressed and pursued. How we express them can be exclusive to the needs of others reconcilable or incompatible violent or non-violent. 4

Introduction
Violence occurs when the disagreement over values involves any form of physical confrontation such as a fight, battle, or struggle, which depicts aggressive behaviour that is often accompanied by cruelty or brutality Armed violence is the intentional use of physical force (threatened or actual) involving different forms of firearms, against another person or a group/community, which is likely to result in mental or physical injury, death, deprivation or loss of livelihood (e.g. SGBV, kidnappings).
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Introduction
Armed conflict is as a contested incompatibility which concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, resulting in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year.
Of the two parties, at least one has to be the government of a state; and the other a non-state actor (a formally organised group or civilians) Can be two states using proxies It is a war when number of people killed in a calendar year are >1,000 battle deaths 6

The Regional Dimensions of the Armed Conflict in the GLR

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The interconnectedness of the Armed Conflicts in the GLR

Elements of interconnectedness (causes / drivers; shared characteristics; one leads to and/or affects the other; outcomes/impacts)
Territorial contiguity/trans-boundary resources/trans-national ethnicities (Angola vs DRC; Uganda vs DRC; Rwanda vs DRC; Uganda vs Rwanda; RoSS vs Republic of Sudan) Regime consolidation vs regime change
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The interconnectedness of the Armed Conflicts in the GLR

Commercial benefit (sales of weapons or exploitation of NRs - below-ground (minerals & fossil fuels) vs. above-ground (timber, land) Ownership, control over and access to NRs (incountry/cross-border) for basic livelihood - crop farmers vs pastoral communities) Insecurity (porous borders) state presence low (SALW proliferation; armed criminality) High poverty levels amidst untapped NR wealth
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The interconnectedness of the Armed Conflicts in the GLR

The causes, drivers and impacts are not only diverse but also regionally interconnected
Factors identified as causes and drivers of armed conflicts are sometimes the same factors identified as outcomes and impacts of armed conflicts Causes/drivers of conflicts and outcomes/impacts are mutually reinforcing & complex (e.g. poverty; environmental degradatn/climate change) Identified economic, political, social impacts are so interdependent that a failure in one risks failure in 10 all others

The interconnectedness of the Armed Conflicts in the GLR

Every one of the conflicts is linked to at least one (or several) other(s), in terms of:
Causes (underlying/proximate); drivers and triggers The actors involved (state/non-state; direct/proxy); and operate at various levels (household, community, national, regional and international) The interests and motives of actors and purveyors (over or covert interests); short/medium/long-term
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The interconnectedness of the Armed Conflicts in the GLR

Regionalization of armed conflicts in terms of:
Geographical coverage/trans-national operations (externalization of internal conflicts armed rebel groups fighting one country, but set up camps in another country) Composition of fighting forces (Burundians and Congolese in ADF; Ugandans commanding units of al shabaab militias in Somalia; Children from DRC, Sudan and CAR abducted and forcefully conscripted into LRA) multi-nationalization of 12 fighting forces

The interconnectedness of the Armed Conflicts in the GLR

Regionalization of their military agendas LRA fighting alongside rebel groups in CAR and Chad, and reports indicate there may be some involvement of the LRA in Darfur conflict ADF rebels could in future fight in Burundi, sometimes they ally with armed militias in DRC Al Shabaab terror cells carrying out attacks in Uganda, Kenya and targeting Burundi

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The interconnectedness of the Armed Conflicts in the GLR

A conflict in one country affects all the neighboring countries, and sometimes, those without a contiguous geographical border
Mainly negatively (refugees; but also IDPs due to armed activities in 3rd country), but sometimes positively (brain-drain); directly/indirectly

When one country in the GLR sneezes, all the others catch a cold, in the following ways:
Refugees; activities of armed groups spreads insecurity/cross-border incursions (displacement); 14 HR violations; Poverty/loss of livelihoods

The interconnectedness of the Armed Conflicts in the GLR

Unresolved internal conflicts always get externalized (regionalised), and eventually internationalized Interventions from other states on the side of govt or rebels / snowball effect start of other internal / external conflicts
State or the non-state actors may seek the help from neighboring; interventions from neighboring countries (direct or proxy)
15 Interventions from the international community

The interconnectedness of the Armed Conflicts in the GLR

Liberation of Mozambique Struggle against Idi Amin 1978 invasion of Tanzania by Amin 1979 Tanzanias war against Amin Musevenis Armed struggle Armed rebellions against Museveni SPLA Civil war in Burundi RPA invasion of Rwanda Rwanda Genocide Foreign armed rebel groups in DRC Laurent Kabilas armed struggle against Mobutu (1st Congo War) Rwanda/ Uganda armed struggle against Laurent Kabila (2nd Congo war) Angola/Zimbabwe/Sudan/ Chad/Libya Proliferation of DRC armed groups Uganda vs 16 Rwanda

Framework for Analyzing regional implications of armed conflicts

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Framework for Analyzing regional implications of armed conflicts

1st Premise: Recognize the complexity of the subject matter because of the degree of interconnectedness of pertaining variables 2nd Premise: The impact of armed conflicts is influenced by a multitude of mediating factors; is not a given, and is context specific 3rd Premise: The impact of armed conflicts can be at micro, meso, macro, and regional levels. The impacts at these various levels are mutually reinforcing 18

Framework for Analyzing regional implications of armed conflicts

4th Premise: The impact of armed conflicts on many aspects of life are diffuse and sometimes difficult to disaggregate and demonstrate. Some of the impacts are indirect and occur after so many years after the conflicts have ended, and very devastating. 5th Premise: A focus on the regional dimensions of the implications of armed conflicts makes it possible to identify the cross-border dynamics ignored in national policy programs.
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The Regional Implications of the Armed Conflicts in the GLR

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Impact on the Economic spheres of the Region

During armed conflicts, millions of people are killed (either directly during combat or being targeted as a result of proliferation of firearms), or indirectly due to being caught in the cross-fire or as a result of causes occasioned by armed conflicts malnutrition; preventable diseases). Injuries/casualties
The indirect costs of armed conflicts sometimes higher than the direct costs
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Impact on the Economic spheres of the Region

Fragmentation of the state fragility of conflict afflicted states - inability to enforce state control over parts of a country
(Illegal) exploitation of NRs by unauthorized state and non-state entities (national/foreign); illegal taxation/economic exactions; forces of occupation involve in pillage/plunder The more it becomes economically profitable to indulge in armed conflicts, the more the number of armed groups will keep coming up
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Impact on the Economic spheres of the Region

The economic costs of armed conflict are very high, and hinder economic growth and devt
Direct costs: insecure people invest less (less domestic capital formation); destruction of infrastructure; divert money from productive uses to military spending; medical costs; care for IDPs/refugees.
Between 1999 and 2007, wars cost Africa US$284bn in terms of devt (IANSA, Oxfam & Saferworld: 2007) Africa looses US$18bn per year due to armed conflicts Armed conflicts shrinks an African countrys economy 23 by 15%

Cumulative GDP Loss for Burundi, 1989-2005: (IANSA, Oxfam International & Saferworld, 2007)

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Armed violence in Kenya in 2007

The post-election violence arising from the 2007 disputed presidential election results, affected Kenyas economic development
There was an aggregate decline of growth rate from 7 per cent in the year 2006 to below 3 per cent growth rate in 2008 and 1.7 per cent in 2009 The decline, was among others, due to impact of the armed violence.
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Impact of Armed Conflicts on Annual growth and GDP loss in selected countries
IANSA, Oxfam International & Saferworld (2007)

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Costs of Armed Conflicts at National level:

IANSA, Oxfam International & Saferworld (2007)

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Impact on the Economic spheres of the Region

Indirect costs: incomes from NRs are creamed off by conflict entrepreneurs; shrinking of national and regional economies; more people die from dysfunctional service delivery than from war; armed conflicts undermines efforts by people to escape poverty; neighboring countries suffer due to reduced trade, insecurity and influx of refugees.
African countries in conflicts have: 50% more infant deaths; 15% more undernourished people; Life expectancy reduced by five years; 20% more adult illiteracy; 2.5 times fewer doctors per patient; and 12.4% less food per person

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Impact on the Economic spheres of the Region

Degradation of the Environment and NRs
Habitat destruction; loss of wildlife, overexploitation and degradation of NRs, and pollution. Vegetation may be cut, burned, or defoliated to improve mobility or visibility for troops Vegetation cleared for IDP/Refugee camps; for gardens and charcoal Armed conflicts increase resource scarcities by making available natural resources difficult/costly 29 to access or completely inaccessible.

Impact on the Economic spheres of the Region

2010 Human Development Index (HDI) rankings of countries in the GLR: Republic of Congo (128); Kenya (128) Uganda (143) Angola (146); Tanzania (148); Zambia (150); Rwanda (152); Malawi (153); Sudan (154); Mozambique (165); Burundi (166); the Democratic Republic of Congo (168). At least 22 of the 34 countries least likely to achieve the MDGs targets by 2015 are in the midst of or emerging from conflict. By 2010, half of the worlds poorest people were living in states that were experiencing violent conflict or were at risk of it. 30

Impact on the Economic spheres of the Region

Economic benefits from armed conflicts (legitimate vs non-legitimate)
Export of minerals/NRs exploited illegally in DRC (Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi) Economic returns from Peace Support operations at State and individual levels
AMISOM; UNMIS; Liberia; Sierra Leone; AMIB; MONUC/MONUSCO (fat salaries) US army financial, military and logistical support to UPDF for AMISOM; Operation Lighting Thunder

War-Booty from the 1979 Ug-Tanzania war 31

Impact on the Economic spheres of the Region

Countries whose internal economies have been affected by armed conflicts impose constraints on the economies of neighboring countries Armed conflicts and violence exacerbate poverty which leads to underdevelopment countries afflicted by armed conflicts divert available resources (public/donors) to support armed conflict expenditures
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Impact on the Political spheres of the Region

Undermining diplomatic relations between countries Attrition of institutions of the state (security, political, administrative) as a deliberate strategy to herald the collapse of the functioning of a sitting government Arms race and arms proliferation countries have been investing in self-defense weaponry
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Impact on the Political spheres of the Region

Conflagration of intra-state and inter-state armed conflicts
Prolonged exposure to civil strife and armed conflicts increases the risk of recurrence of armed conflicts because of fragile State institution to handle internal insecurity, law and order maintenance

Human rights violations

Denial of right to life; Restriction of freedoms and liberties; Absence of basic standards
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Impact on the Social Spheres of the Region

Disruption of social relations and weakening of social capital Intensification of vulnerability
Impedes access basic social services: health care; education; clean water. Leads to increased incidence of preventable diseases

Psycho-social challenges (Post-Traumatic Stress Disorders)

Combatants and non-combatants (including communities affected by armed conflicts)
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Impact on the Social Spheres of the Region

Impact on women
Conflict-related sexual and gender violence (rape, sex trafficking; prostitution; sex-for-food; sex-forfreedom/life; domestic violence) Creation of space for womens empowerment (Acquisition of new skills and new responsibilities)

Impact on children and youth

Children grow up deprived of their material and emotional needs, including structures that give meaning to social and cultural life
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Impact on the Social Spheres of the Region

Population displacement (IDPs and Refugees)
At the peak of the armed conflicts in the GLR in the 1990s, there was approx. 2.7 million refugees from the region and more than 4 million IDPs IDPs in DRC, Uganda, Sudan, Kenya By Jan 2011, DRC was hosting 180,000 refuges in North and South Kivu, Bas Congo, Katanga, Bandundu and Kasai regions
Angola (60,900), Burundi (14,600), Rwanda (65,500) and the rest from Republic of the Congo and Sudan
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Impact on the Social Spheres of the Region

By Jan 2011, an estimated 444,054 refugees from DRC living in neighbouring countries
Angola (13,364); Burundi (24,614); CAR (20,899); Republic of Congo (125,330); Rwanda (54,143); Sudan (19,709); Tanzania (63,275); Uganda (74,895); Zambia (21,965); and the rest of Africa (25,860).

By April 2010, DRC had a total of 1,903,939 IDPs

North Kivu (793,920); South Kivu (628,946); Katanga (15,127); Province Orientale (442,946); and Equateur (33,000)

Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania also hosting large numbers of refugees

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Interventions to Mitigate the Regional Implications

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Interventions to Mitigate the Regional Implications

Military interventions to end armed rebellions, which lead to the adverse impacts Military co-operation
Regular meetings of Defense and Police Chiefs in EAC Operation Lighting thunder December 2008 in Orientale Province (Uganda, DRC and Sudan, with military and logistical support from the US) Uganda and Kenya over disarmament of armed pastoral groups

Peaceful Resolution of conflicts (Burundi Peace agreement of 2009; Sudan CPA of 2005)

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Interventions to Mitigate the Regional Implications

Regional Agreements, Protocols and Frameworks to end armed conflicts
1999 Lusaka Ceasefire agreement for DRC The Juba Peace process

Regional Protocols and Frameworks for promoting political co-operation (Peace, Security, Borders)
The ICGLR pact on Peace and Stability of 2006 Ngurdoto Accord, Sept 2007 (marking the Albert border) Joint Technical Survey of Migingo island border (2010-11) Luanda agreement 2002 for normalization of relations between Uganda and DRC 41

Interventions to Mitigate the Regional Implications

Regional Protocols and frameworks for promoting economic integration
Ruzizi II hydropower station (SINELAC)

Normalization of relations between Heads of State (Uganda, Rwanda and DRC)

H.E. Museveni and H.E. Kagame attended DRCs 50th independence celebration in June 2010; H.E. Musevenis 1st official state visit to Rwanda since the DRC clashes was in July 2011 Uganda and Rwanda have restored full diplomatic 42 relations with DRC

Interventions to Mitigate the Regional Implications

Bi-lateral co-operation frameworks, with or without third parties

Third Party Diplomacy and Mediation Efforts in the region

Mediation efforts led by/under auspices of AU; IGAD; EAC; COMESA; SADC; ICGLR Peace Support Operations (AMISOM; AMIB)

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Interventions to Mitigate the Regional Implications

The role of the International Community
Humanitarian assistance UN Security Council Resolutions; threats of interventions; Use of Sanctions/bans (arms procurement, travel bans, trade in conflict minerals); Direct interventions through peacekeeping missions (MONUC/MONUSCO); US Congress (LRA/Sudan Peace Process) The International Court of Justice (ICJ) The International Criminal Court (ICC)

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A Cartoonists impression of the work of the ICC in Africa, the Star Newspaper (Kenya), 29 June 2011, pp.25

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Challenges and Gaps

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Challenges and Gaps

Internal democracy and political governance in the member countries
Strong leaders vs weak institutions Limitations of the First-past-the-Post (winnertake-all) electoral systems
Elections have not helped to deal with underlying issues of open political space for different interests (political, ethnic, regional); Manipulation of electoral processes and outcomes - countries emerge from elections more divided than united

Conflict drivers originating from countries outside the GLR

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Challenges and Gaps

Political commitment to regional frameworks by member states (esp. annual contributions) Multiplicity of regional frameworks in the GLR, which are sometimes overlapping and contradictory Contradictions in Western interventionism esp. the Right-to-Protect (R2P) and Double Standards
The ICJ withdrawal of the case against Rwanda 48 and Burundi

Recommendations for Policy Makers

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Recommendations for Policy Makers

Deepening Democratic Reforms in member countries
Political representativeness and inclusion; as well as broadening participation in political governance (beyond holding periodic elections)

Addressing poverty and other conditions that make people angry and/or resort to use of violence to have their interest/needs addressed
Underlying causes of armed conflicts in member countries, which leads to externalization of conflicts 50

Recommendations for Policy Makers

Regional and cross-border co-operation and economic integration projects
Joint venture in extending Oil pipeline from Eldoret to Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and DRC Joint venture Oil and Gas extraction in the Lake Albert Basin Joint Tourism projects (Virunga/Muhabura)

Harmonization of policy/legal frameworks for regional co-operation and integration

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Recommendations for Policy Makers

Increase investment in visible interdependence and support for bilateral stability for all countries in the GLR
Develop formal Security and Military co-operation Pacts on non-aggression (directly or through proxies); joint defence

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fmuhereza@hotmail.com

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