INDIAN STOCK MARKET PREVIEW (JAN-JUL 2011)

INDEX MOVEMENTS JAN SEPT 2011 NIFTY

NIFTY STATISTICS HIGH JAN FEB 6181 5599 LOW 5416 5177

MAR
APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT HIGH JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP 20664 18690 19575 19253 19253 18873 19131 18440 17211 LOW 18327 17295 17792 17786 17786 17314 18713 15765 15801

5872
5944 5605 5657 5740 5551 5169

5348
5693 5328 5195 5651 4720 4829

SENSEX

PRESENT ECONOMIC SCENARIO

GLOBAL ECONOMIES

US ECONOMY UPTO SEPT 2011

If you take advantage of everything America has to offer, theres nothing you cant accomplish. Geraldine Ferraro

USA- GDP
The United States Gross Domestic Product is worth 14582 billion dollars or 1.30% of the world economy, according to the World Bank The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 1.3 percent in the second quarter of 2011 over the previous quarte

USA-INFLATION RATE
The inflation rate in United States was last reported at 3.8 percent in Aug of 2011. From 1914 until 2010, the average inflation rate in United States was 3.38 percent .

MAJOR ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS-USA The United States' main stock market index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, declined 57 points or 0.53 percent during the last 12 months. From 1928 until 2011 the Dow Jones Industrial Average market value averaged 2612.71 points reaching an historical high of 14164.53 points in October of 2007 and a record low of 41.22 points in July of 1932

CHINESE ECONOMY UPTO SEP 2011

China is clearly going to be the number one economic power and it is already full of potential.. with lots of population and the buying power increasing by the day Bernard Arnault

CHINA GDP
GDP is worth 5879 billion dollars or 9.48% of the world economy, according to the World Bank The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China expanded 2.20 percent in the second quarter of 2011 over the previous quarter

CHINA - EXPORTS
China exports were worth 173 Billion USD in August of 2011. Export growth has continued to be a major component supporting China's rapid economic growth. Exports of goods and services constitute 39.7% of its GDP. China major exports are: office machines & data processing equipment, telecommunications equipment, electrical machinery and apparel & clothing. Chinas largest exports markets are European Union, United States, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea.

The inflation rate in China was last reported at 6.2 percent in August of 2011 Inflation rate in China rose 6.2 percent over a year earlier, cooling from 6.5 percent in July, the National Statistics Bureau said on September 9

CHINA - IIP
Industrial Production in China expanded 13.5% in August of 2011 Industrial production measures changes in output for the industrial sector of the economy which includes manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

CHINA STOCK MARKET INDEX

China's main stock market index, the Shanghai Composite Index, declined 296 points or 11.16 percent during the last 12 months. From 1990 until 2011 the Shanghai Composite Index market value averaged 1617.81 points reaching an historical high of 6092.06 points in October of 2007 and a record low of 99.98 points in December of 1990

JAPANESE ECONOMY UPTO SEPT 2011

"It was always a question of 'when' Japan would turn around, not 'if' Japan would turn around." Tod Jacobson

JAPAN-GDP
Japan Gross Domestic Product is worth 5498 billion dollars or 8.87% of the world economy, according to the World Bank The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Japan contracted 0.50 percent in the second quarter of 2011 over the previous quarter

JAPAN-IIP
Industrial Production in Japan rose 0.6 percent in August of 2011

JAPAN-STOCK MARKET INDEX

Japan's main stock market index, the NIKKEI 225, declined 925 points or 9.86 percent during the last 12 months From 1970 until 2011 the NIKKEI 225 market value averaged 12985.92 points reaching an historical high of 38915.87 points in December of 1989 and a record low of 1929.64 points in May of 1970.

EUROPEAN ECONOMIES UPTO SEPT 2011

GDP STATUS OF MAJOR EURO ZONE COUNTRIES

GDP
GDP (IN $ BLN)

3346.7

2649.39

2112.78

1460.25

329.92

227.68

227.19

Germany

France

Spain

Greece

Italy

Portugal

Ireland

IIP STATUS OF MAJOR EURO ZONE COUNTRIES

IIP
IIP

7.6

3.9

3.7

0.8

Germany

France

Spain

Greece

Italy

Portugal

-1.7

Ireland

-5.5

-11

INDIAN ECONOMY 2011

$ 1.3 TRILLION ECONOMY Q1 OF Y12GDP AT 7.7% 2011-12 GROWTH LIKELY TO BE AT 8% JULY IIP AT 3.3%

AUG WPI INFLATION AT 9.78%

KEY INTEREST RATES : REPO @ 8.25%, CRR @ 6%

INDIAN GDP AT A GLANCE

GDP
GDP %

9.5 8.3 5.8 4.4 3.8 6.2

9.7

9 6.7 7.4

8.5

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010-2011E

9.5 9 8.5 8 7.5 7

QUARTERLY GDP %
9.3 8.9 8.3

Q1 OF Y12GDP AT 7.7%
7.8

Q1

Q2

YEAR 2010-2011

Q3

Q4

GDP

INDIAN IIP AT A GLANCE

2011 JULY IIP AT 3.3%

60
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20

CORE SECTOR GROWTH

Apr-10 ARIL 2011

FII FLOW TO INDIA AS PER SEBI DATA FOR JAN JULY 2011
10000 8000

FII INFLOW (Rs. IN Cr.) 6967.1

7,018.5

SEBI FII

6000

4947.40
4000 2000 0 Jan--2011 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 Feb--2011 Mar--2011 Apr--2011 May--2011 June --2011

-3754.3 -5158.30 -6330.4

JULY 11 FII FUND FLOW 7652.90 CR AUG 11 FII FUND FLOW 10905.50 CR SEP 11 FII FUND FLOW -391 CR

INFLATION
9.8 8.82 8.62 9.12 8.08 9.41 8.23 9.54 9.04 8.66 9.06 AUG 2011 WPI INFLATION AT 9.78%

10 9.18 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

8.28

8.74

8.76

8.53 7.7 7.47

8.55

9.01 8.06

8.96

9.13 7.78 7.61

FOOD INFLATION

MARKET SEGMENTS TURNOVER

F&O
3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 May-11 Dec-10 Mar-11 Aug-10 Nov-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Jul-10

CAPITAL MARKET
400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Nov-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Sep-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11

Jun-10

Oct-10

CURRENCY
450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0

May-11

Recent Recommendations
Banking Space Other Space V Guard ENIL Everonn Education Sobha Developers

South Indian Bank

Federal Bank Dhanlaxmi Bank Power Space Msp Steel & Power

Metal Space
Hindalco Sterlite Industres SAIL Tata Steel

NCC
FCH

COMPANY PROFILES
ENIL
LTP (as on 06-7-2011) Face Value 52 Week High/Low 266.65 10 295.80/197

EVERONN
LTP (as on 06-7-2011) Face Value 52 Week High/Low 538 10 723.90/438.65

COMPANY SIZE Market Cap 1276.1 Equity Capital 47.67 KEY MARKET RATIOS Industry PE 20.34 PE 24.37 Book Value 80.49 Latest EPS 10.95 P/BV 3.32 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN Promoter 71.15 FII 16.07 General Public 6.25 Others 6.53

COMPANY SIZE Market Cap 1026.66 Equity Capital 19.03 KEY MARKET RATIOS Industry PE 11.74 PE 14.07 Book Value 276.3 Latest EPS 38.84 P/BV 1.95 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN Promoter 42.67 FII 28.62 General Public 57.33 Others 23.36

COMPANY PROFILES

SIB
LTP (as on 06-7-2011) Face Value 52 Week High/Low 24.25 1 25.40/17.50 LTP (as on 06-7-2011) Face Value 52 Week High/Low

NCC
83.50 2 153.45/74.60

COMPANY SIZE Market Cap 2741 Equity Capital 113.01 KEY MARKET RATIOS Industry PE 20.16 PE 9.37 Book Value 14.99 Latest EPS 2.59 P/BV 1.62 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN Promoter FII 36.20 General Public 41.48 Others 22.32

COMPANY SIZE Market Cap 2138.63 Equity Capital 51.32 KEY MARKET RATIOS Industry PE 21.45 PE 13.08 Book Value 89.78 Latest EPS 6.37 P/BV .93 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN Promoter 20.04 FII 38.38 General Public 11.49 Others 30.09

COMPANY PROFILES

SOBHA DEVELOPERS
LTP (as on 06-7-2011) Face Value 52 Week High/Low 285.50 10 337.80/184.95 LTP (as on 06-7-2011) Face Value 52 Week High/Low

FCH
140.35 10 199/127.50

COMPANY SIZE Market Cap 2794.82 Equity Capital 98.10 KEY MARKET RATIOS Industry PE 16.52 PE 15.32 Book Value 189.33 Latest EPS 18.61 P/BV 1.51 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN Promoter 60.50 FII 30.21 General Public 2.71 Others 6.58

COMPANY SIZE Market Cap 907.50 Equity Capital 64.78 KEY MARKET RATIOS Industry PE 15.85 PE 16.42 Book Value 123.70 Latest EPS 8.53 P/BV 1.13 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN Promoter 61.06 FII 1.39 General Public 16.70 Others 20.85

COVERED CALL STRATEGIES

FOR APRIL
BUY LIC HOUSING FUTURES....CMP 220/-......& SELL LIC HOUSING 220 CALL OPTION @ 8/50........MAXIMUM PRFT...10000/-.....BREAK EVEN 212/-.......MARGIN REQUIRED 85000/......ANNUALISED RETURN 140%......

FOR MAY
BUY TATA STEEL FUT @ 583/-....& SELL 560 CALL OPTIONS @ 33/-.....MARGIN REQUIRED Rs.60000/-.....BREAKEVEN POINT....550/-....MAXIMUM PRFT 5000/-.....ANNUALIZED RETURN 100%....

FOR JUNE
BUY PETRONET FUTURES...@ 138/-.....& SELL 140 CALL @ 3/75...4/-.......MARGIN REQUIRED 80000/-......BREAKEVEN....134/-.......MAXIMUM PROFIT...12000/-......ANNUALIZED RETRUN....160%

COVERED CALL STRATEGIES

FOR JULY
BUY PETRONET JULY FUTURES @ 141/-.....& SELL 140 JULY CALL @ 5/-.....MARGIN REQUIRED ...70000/-....MAXIMUM PRFT 8000/-......BREAKEVEN POINT..137/-...... ANNUALISED RETURN 125%

BUY BHARTI AIRTEL JULY FUTURES...@403/-403/50......& SELL 400 CALL OPTIONS @ 14/50..14/75.....MARGING REQUIRED 1 LAKH..........MAXIMUM PRFT 11000/........BREAKEVEN POINT 388/50........ANNUALIZED RETURN @ 110% BUY SBI JULY FUTURES 2485/-.......& SELL 2500 CALL @ 60/-.......MARGIN REQUIRED 80000/-........MAXIMUM PRFT RS.9375/-......BREAK EVEN POINT 2425/-......ANNUALIZED RETRUN 120%

FOR NEXT 3 MONTHS (GIVEN ON JUNE)

BUY IDEA FUTURES @ 70.50......AND SELL IDEA 70 CALL OPTION..2.50.....MARGING REQUIRED 70000/-....BREAKEVEN POINT 68/-.....MAXIMUM PRFT 8000/-....ANNUALISED RETURN...140%