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  • 2008 Modeling and Optimizing The Offshore Production of Oil and Gas Under Uncertainty: Presentation of PHD Work (Steinar M. Elgsæter)

    Transféré par

    Steinar M. Elgsæter
    52 vues30 pages
    Presentation of phd work, 2008, Steinar M.Elgsæter The topic of this thesis is optimizing the offshore production of oil and gas on a day-to-day basis. Optimization is based on a model of the production. Designing such production models is very complex and challenging, and as a result models will always be subject to some uncertainty in practice. In this thesis a data-driven approach to production modeling and model updating is suggested. Simple model structures are inferred from observa- tions of measured production, motivated by the concepts of system identi- fication and a desire for models which are sufficiently accurate while being easily solved numerically. A production model needs to be updated periodically to reflect changes in reservoirs and wells. Updating models against observations of recently measured data describing normal operations is suggested, motivated by a desire for an updating scheme which requires little human intervention and does not require frequent additional experimentation, for instance in the form of well-tests. The suggested approach to model-updating is based on parameter estimation against production data stemming from normal operations. As data describing normal operations may have low information content, parameters estimated in this manner may be subject to significant uncertainty. Bootstrapping is considered as a means of estimating uncertainty in fitted parameters. Methods for the explicit treatment of such uncertainty based on Monte-Carlo analysis are investigated. Methods for estimating lost potential due to uncertainty, result analysis, excitation planning and choosing active decision variables are suggested. Since uncertainty will never be completely eliminated in practice, some method is needed to adapt to uncertainty when implementing changes in pro duction suggested by optimization. Motivated by how operators implement such changes in practice, an “operational strategy” approach is suggested to link optimization with implementation and monitoring by iteratively imple- menting smaller changes while monitoring profits and constraints. The models considered are low in complexity, which may simplify design- i ii Summary ing and updating models and may reduce numerical issues. Since the sug- gested methods rely on measurements, the success of the suggested methods will depend on measurement quality. Also, although the methods suggested do not require exotic measurements, the suggested methods could benefit from additional instrumentation on some fields. The methods suggested to- gether constitute a novel, structured approach to optimization of offshore oil and gas production in the presence of uncertainty. Modeling methods are applied to real-world production data from two offshore oil fields. Implementation of the suggested methods are studied by simulations against an analog of one of the fields considered

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    2008 Modeling and optimizing the offshore production of oil and gas under uncertainty: Presentation of phd work (Steinar M. Elgsæter)

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    Presentation of phd work, 2008, Steinar M.Elgsæter The topic of this thesis is optimizing the offshore production of oil and gas on a day-to-day basis. Optimization is based on a model of the production. Designing such production models is very complex and challenging, and as a result models will always be subject to some uncertainty in practice. In this thesis a data-driven approach to production modeling and model updating is suggested. Simple model structures are inferred from observa- tions of measured production, motivated by the concepts of system identi- fication and a desire for models which are sufficiently accurate while being easily solved numerically. A production model needs to be updated periodically to reflect changes in reservoirs and wells. Updating models against observations of recently measured data describing normal operations is suggested, motivated by a desire for an updating scheme which requires little human intervention and does not require frequent additional experimentation, for instance in the form of well-tests. The suggested approach to model-updating is based on parameter estimation against production data stemming from normal operations. As data describing normal operations may have low information content, parameters estimated in this manner may be subject to significant uncertainty. Bootstrapping is considered as a means of estimating uncertainty in fitted parameters. Methods for the explicit treatment of such uncertainty based on Monte-Carlo analysis are investigated. Methods for estimating lost potential due to uncertainty, result analysis, excitation planning and choosing active decision variables are suggested. Since uncertainty will never be completely eliminated in practice, some method is needed to adapt to uncertainty when implementing changes in pro duction suggested by optimization. Motivated by how operators implement such changes in practice, an “operational strategy” approach is suggested to link optimization with implementation and monitoring by iteratively imple- menting smaller changes while monitoring profits and constraints. The models considered are low in complexity, which may simplify design- i ii Summary ing and updating models and may reduce numerical issues. Since the sug- gested methods rely on measurements, the success of the suggested methods will depend on measurement quality. Also, although the methods suggested do not require exotic measurements, the suggested methods could benefit from additional instrumentation on some fields. The methods suggested to- gether constitute a novel, structured approach to optimization of offshore oil and gas production in the presence of uncertainty. Modeling methods are applied to real-world production data from two offshore oil fields. Implementation of the suggested methods are studied by simulations against an analog of one of the fields considered

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    52 vues30 pages

    2008 Modeling and Optimizing The Offshore Production of Oil and Gas Under Uncertainty: Presentation of PHD Work (Steinar M. Elgsæter)

    Transféré par

    Steinar M. Elgsæter
    Presentation of phd work, 2008, Steinar M.Elgsæter The topic of this thesis is optimizing the offshore production of oil and gas on a day-to-day basis. Optimization is based on a model of the production. Designing such production models is very complex and challenging, and as a result models will always be subject to some uncertainty in practice. In this thesis a data-driven approach to production modeling and model updating is suggested. Simple model structures are inferred from observa- tions of measured production, motivated by the concepts of system identi- fication and a desire for models which are sufficiently accurate while being easily solved numerically. A production model needs to be updated periodically to reflect changes in reservoirs and wells. Updating models against observations of recently measured data describing normal operations is suggested, motivated by a desire for an updating scheme which requires little human intervention and does not require frequent additional experimentation, for instance in the form of well-tests. The suggested approach to model-updating is based on parameter estimation against production data stemming from normal operations. As data describing normal operations may have low information content, parameters estimated in this manner may be subject to significant uncertainty. Bootstrapping is considered as a means of estimating uncertainty in fitted parameters. Methods for the explicit treatment of such uncertainty based on Monte-Carlo analysis are investigated. Methods for estimating lost potential due to uncertainty, result analysis, excitation planning and choosing active decision variables are suggested. Since uncertainty will never be completely eliminated in practice, some method is needed to adapt to uncertainty when implementing changes in pro duction suggested by optimization. Motivated by how operators implement such changes in practice, an “operational strategy” approach is suggested to link optimization with implementation and monitoring by iteratively imple- menting smaller changes while monitoring profits and constraints. The models considered are low in complexity, which may simplify design- i ii Summary ing and updating models and may reduce numerical issues. Since the sug- gested methods rely on measurements, the success of the suggested methods will depend on measurement quality. Also, although the methods suggested do not require exotic measurements, the suggested methods could benefit from additional instrumentation on some fields. The methods suggested to- gether constitute a novel, structured approach to optimization of offshore oil and gas production in the presence of uncertainty. Modeling methods are applied to real-world production data from two offshore oil fields. Implementation of the suggested methods are studied by simulations against an analog of one of the fields considered

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    1

    Modeling and optimizing the offshore production of oil and gas under uncertainty
    Steinar M. Elgster - October 14, 2008

    Thesis introduction
    supervised by Professor Tor Arne Johansen (NTNU) and Dr.Ing Olav Slupphaug (ABB), funded by ABB, Norsk Hydro (later StatoilHydro) and the Norwegian Research Council, work conducted in the period 2005-2008, three conference papers presented, two journal papers submitted, one patent application submitted.

    fast dynamics on the timescales of hours and days

    slow dynamics on the timescales of months and years

    production

    measured output: profits and capacities

    disturbance

    decision variables

    production optimization timescale: hours and days

    Model-based production optimization


    Production constraints (capacities) and object function Disturbances Decision (profit measure) Variables (valves) Production optimization Production Production Model Model parameters: Watercut,GOR,well potential etc.

    Measured output (Profits and capacity utilization)

    current practice: an engineering approach to modeling detailed physical models emprical relations for closure commerical simulators

    Challenges of current practice


    1. challenging production modeling
    complexity of systems considered multiphase flow measurement difficulties (such as multiphase flow meters) disturbances (reservoir depletion)

    2. model updating (high update frequency, laborious) 3. numerical and optimization issuses (numerical stability,identifiability,convexity,run-time)

    Part I: A data-driven approach to production modeling and model updating

    production data contains information that can be exploited in optimization

    A data-driven approach to production modeling and model updating


    Production constraints disturbances (capacities) and object function decision measured output (profit measure) variables (Profits and capacity (valves) utilization) Production optimization Production Production Model modeled output Production model parameters fitted model parameters and Parameter and states state Difference (residual) estimation
    A closed loop

    10

    Challenge
    data describing normal operations are usually not sufficiently informative, models fitted to data are subject to parameter uncertainty

    11

    Part II: Methods for uncertainty analysis and uncertainty handling

    12

    Quantifying uncertainty
    bootstrapping
    multiple-model computational based on data-set resampling

    models
    locally valid simple performance curves motivated by concepts of system identification

    13

    Eliminating uncertainty is not a practical option


    realized potential max
    3

    ?
    Optimization current
    2

    Cost

    Uncertainty 1 due to low information Experiments content in data

    14

    An approach for structured uncertainty handling


    my thesis proposes a five-element strategy for optimization with uncertain models 1. result analysis 2. excitation planning 3. active decision variables 4. operational strategy 5. iterative implementation and model updating

    15

    1.Result analysis
    realized potential max Different simulated plausible outcomes

    current

    uncertainty due to low information content in data

    2. Excitation planning
    realized potential

    16

    Simulated plausible outcomes of optimization without exictation Simulated outcome of excitation Simulated plausible outcomes of optimization with exictation

    current

    Experiment 2

    Cost

    uncertainty due to low information content in data

    17

    3. Active decision variables


    realized potential Simulated change in all decision variables Simulated change in active decision variables

    current

    uncertainty due to low information content in data

    18

    4. Operational strategy
    When models are uncertain, a target setpoint can be infeasble when implemented An opertational strategy is an iterative implementation of setpoint change while monitoring profits and constraints

    19

    4. Operational strategy...
    Target Production optimization Decision Variables Operational strategy Production Measured output

    Fitted parameters and states Parameter and state estimation

    20

    5.Iterative implementation and model updating


    realized potential max
    4 3
    update model and re-optimize update model and re-optimize

    2 1
    optimize

    current

    uncertainty due to low information content in data

    21
    Wait until new data becomes avialable

    Update model: Estimate parameters and parameter uncertainty

    Perf orm production optimization Optionally: select active decision variables

    Perf orm excitation planning

    Is the cost/benef it tradeof f of any planned excitation f avorable? No Perf orm result analysis

    Yes

    Implement planned excitation

    Combined the elements provide a framework for optimizing oil and gas production with uncertain models

    No Is result analysis f avorable?

    Yes Implement setpoint change suggested by production optimization according to operational strategy

    22

    Results
    Methods applied to two sets of real-world production data from North Sea oil fields Simulations indicate:
    promising active decision variable candidates found in simulations 30-80% of potential profits were realized using uncertain models in combination with the suggested framework

    23

    Results: Active decision variables(1)

    24

    Results: Active decision variables(2)

    25

    Discussion and Conclusions

    26

    I. Data-driven modeling and model updating


    adresses weaknesses of current practice:
    models easy to design models updated with less effort
    this may increase frequency at which production optmization can run

    models are less prone to issues of convexity, numerical stability, identifiability and computational effort. models especially well suited for iterative optimization (each iteration reveals information)

    challenge
    requires measurement maintenance and may be prone to issues of low information content in data

    27

    II. Framework for optimizing production with uncertain models


    a method that can exploit current real-world data as a starting point iterative approach ideal for combination with lowmaintenace data-driven models analog to the current approach
    but: decision support based on objective analysis at every step of decision-making process

    relationship between current manner of operation, uncertainty and production optimization is made explicit

    28

    Further work

    29

    A low-hanging fruit for practicioners


    perform a proof of concept experiment
    implement setpoint change according to active decision variables method

    an experiment that
    will be profitable with high confidence validates the control approach of this thesis

    30

    Thank you for your attention

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