SESSION-5

SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS
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Sampling Distributions

Using Statistics Sample Statistics Parameters Sampling Distributions Sampling Distributions of Mean from Normal Population Sampling Distributions of Mean from Non Normal Population- Central Limit Theorem as Estimators of Population

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LEARNING OBJECTIVES After studying this module you should be able to:

Take random samples from populations Distinguish between population parameters and sample statistics Identify special sampling methods Derive sampling distributions of sample mean Apply the central limit theorem

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Using Statistics

Statistical Inference:
Predict and forecast values of
population parameters... Test hypotheses about values of population parameters... Make decisions...

On basis of sample statistics derived from limited and incomplete sample information

Make generalizations Make generalizations about the about the characteristics of characteristics of aa population... population...
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On the basis of On the basis of observations of observations of aa sample, part of sample, aapart of aa population population
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Sample Statistics as Estimators of Population Parameters

A population parameter A sample statistic is a is a numerical measure of numerical measure of a a summary characteristic summary characteristic of a population. of a sample. E.g, population mean E.g, sample mean An estimator of population parameter is sample An estimator of aapopulation parameter is aasample statistic used to estimate or predict the population statistic used to estimate or predict the population parameter. parameter. An estimate of parameter is particular numerical An estimate of aaparameter is aaparticular numerical value of sample statistic obtained through sampling.A value of aasample statistic obtained through sampling.A point estimate is single value used as an estimate of point estimate is aasingle value used as an estimate of population parameter. aapopulation parameter.
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Estimators

The sample mean, is the most common estimator The sample mean, X,,is the most common estimator of the population mean, of the population mean, .. The sample variance, S , is the most common The sample variance, S22, is the most common estimatorof the population variance, 22. estimator of the population variance, . The sample standard deviation, S, is the most The sample standard deviation, S, is the most common estimator of the population standard common estimator of the population standard deviation, deviation, .. The sample proportion, is the most common The sample proportion, p,,is the most common estimator of the population proportion, p. estimator of the population proportion, p.
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SAMPLING AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION

Sampling is a method of selecting units of analysis, such as households, people, consumers, companies etc. from a population of interest to a manager. By analyzing data collected from the sample we draw inferences about the population parameter. We need sampling mainly because of two reasons: i. It is significantly less expensive.
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ii. It takes the least possible times.

TYPES OF SAMPLING

Sampling
Probability Sampling Non-probability Sampling

Simple Random Sampling

Stratified Systematic Cluster Random Sampling Sampling Sampling

Convenience Expert Quota Sampling Sampling Sampling

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Sampling Methods- Stratified sampling The population is partitioned into two or

more subpopulation called strata according to some relevant characteristics so that each stratum is more or less homogeneous From each stratum a desired sample size is selected at random. Generally used when population is heterogeneous If proper stratification can be made so that the strata differ from each other as much as possible but there is much homogeneity within each stratum , then a stratified sampling will give better estimates of the population characteristics than a random sample of same size.

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STARTIFIED SAMPLING- EXAMPLE

Suppose a marketing manager in a consumer product company wants to study customer attitudes towards his product in order to improve sales. Suppose there are three cities that will influence sales. Suppose customers within each city are similar and between cities are vastly different. Selection of customers for the study has to be a random sample of customers chosen from each city so that meaningful and reliable inferences can be drawn, which in turn will enable marketing manager to develop suitable strategies.

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CLUSTER SAMPLING One of the problems encountered with probability sampling methods is that sampling procedure is to be applied to a population that is scattered across a number of wide geographic regions. In these cases, a lot of distance is to be covered in order to have access to the units proposed to sample. .
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CLUSTER SAMPLING Suppose a simple random sample survey is to be done for all the residents in India who belong to high income category. A lot of travelling is needed for the study. It is for this reason cluster sampling method is followed.
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CLUSTER SAMPLINGThe steps involved in cluster sampling are: Divide the population into a number of clusters based on geographic boundaries Select a random sample of clusters from this population of clusters Either measure all units within the randomly chosen clusters or do further random sampling in each cluster
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CLUSTER SAMPLING Strictly speaking, when all the units are measured in selected clusters, the procedure is called cluster sampling. When further sampling is done within each cluster by adopting a simple random sampling or stratified random sampling, the procedure becomes a multistage sampling.
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COMPARISON-STRATIFIED VERSUS CLUSTER SAMPLING

Stratification is done to make strata homogeneous within & different from other strata. Cluster should be heterogeneous within & different cluster should be similar to each other. A cluster , ideally, is a mini population & has all the features of the population
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SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING
In systematic random sampling, the units are drawn from the population at regular intervals clearly defined. We start at a random point in the sampling frame, and from this point selected every kth, say, value in the frame to formulate the sample. One of the easiest procedures to follow. The steps involved in constructing a systematic sampling scheme are as below: Compute K=(N/n) and take the integer value; K is called the sampling interval. Select a random number between 1 and K. Starting with this number select every Kth number until all the n units are selected. 05/02/12 16

SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING
Let us take an example to explain systematic sampling procedure. Suppose in a market survey, you have to select 5 households out of 50 households in a Block. The selection procedure is given below. The table containing all the households is serially numbered from 1 to 50.
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SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING
Number of units in the Population N = 50 Number of units in the Sample n = 5 Sampling interval K = (N/n) = 50/5 = 10 Select a random number between 1 and 10. Suppose the selected random number is 5. Starting with 5, select every 10th unit. The selected units are highlighted.
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SYSTEMATIC SAMPLING
1, 2, 3, 4,5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50 In the systematic sampling procedure, it is necessary that the units in the population are randomly arranged on the basis of the characteristics we are measuring
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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION
The probability distribution of all the possible values a sample statistic can take. We are not interested in probability distribution of a set of numbers. We are interested in probability distribution of a statistic which can assume different values in an experiment that involves taking a large number of times random samples of same sample size from a population and computing the statistic afresh every time.
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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION
e.g. let us take a sample of 4 youth from a population of youth numbering 10000. The mean weight of this sample (4 youth) is 65 kgs (say). Again, let us take another fresh sample of 4 youth from the same population and let the mean weight be 70 kgs and so on. If we repeat this process an infinite number of times, the probability distribution of these infinite number of sample means would become the sampling distribution of the mean.
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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION
Let us suppose, we keep on taking a sample of 4 youths from the same population and keep on working out the sample mean every time, then mean of the means of the infinite samples will approach the true mean of the population.

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Sampling Distributions
The sampling distribution of a statistic is the
probability distribution of all possible values the statistic may assume, when computed from random samples of the same size, drawn from a specified population. The sampling distribution of X is the probability distribution of all possible values the random variable X may assume when a sample of 05/02/12 23 size n is taken from a specified population.

CONCEPT OF STANDARD ERROR

Standard deviation calculated distribution of the statistic. Is the spread or departure of the values from the mean of means in a sampling distribution. [since, a standard deviation is the spread or departure of the values from the mean in a single sample.] .
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from

sampling

CONCEPT OF STANDARD ERROR

Since sample statistic is an estimate of population parameter Sampling error throws light on the precision and accuracy of our estimate.

The larger the sample standard deviation, the larger is the standard error. The larger the standard error. the larger is the sampling error

Inversely proportional to sample size, As the sample size increases, the standard error goes on declining and approaches the value zero.
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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN FROM NORMAL POPULATION - STATISTICAL DESCRIPTION

If X1, X2,.., Xn are n independent random samples drawn from a normal population with mean =, & SD=, _ then the sampling distribution of X follows a normal distribution with mean = and SD = /n _ X = (X1+ X2+..+Xn)/n is the sample mean Is a random variable & will be different every time when a fresh sample of an observation is taken _ _ E(X) = i.e. X is an unbiased estimate of the 05/02/12 26 population mean

SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN FROM NORMAL POPULATION - STATISTICAL DESCRIPTION Symbolically, X = SD of the sample mean X, i.e. X = /n X is the standard error of the sample mean X. It keeps on decreasing as n keeps on increasing.

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EXAMPLE : SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF THE MEAN OF TWO DICE The population is created by throwing a fair die infinitely many times, with random variable X indicating the number of spots showing on any throw. The probability distribution of the random variable X is as follows. x P(x) 1 1/6 2 1/6 3 1/6 4 1/6 5 1/6 6 1/6

The population is infinitely large, because we can throw the die infinitely many times. From the definitions of expected value and variance, we calculate the population mean, variance and standard deviation. Population mean: = xi P(xi) = 1(1/6) + 2(1/6) + 3(1/6) + 4(1/6) + 5(1/6) + 6(1/6) = 3.5 Population Variance: 2 = (xi-)2 P(xi) = (1-3.5)2(1/6)+(2-3.5)2(1/6)+(3-3.5)2(1/6)+(4-3.5)2(1/6)+(5-3.5)2(1/6)+(6-3.5)2(1/6) = 2.92 Population Standard Deviation: = 2 = 2.92 = 1.71
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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF THE MEAN OF TWO DICE

The sampling distribution is created by drawing samples of size 2 from the population. In other words, we toss two dice. Figure below depicts the process wherein we compute the mean for each sample. Because the value of the sample mean varies randomly from sample to sample, we can regard X as a new random variable created by sampling. Table in the next slide lists all the possible samples and their corresponding values of x. Population Infinitely many 1s, 2s6s Parameters: = 3.5, 2 = 2.92
1, 1 x = 1.0

1, 2 x = 1.5 6, 6 x = 6.0

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ALL SAMPLES OF SIZE 2 AND THEIR MEANS

Sample 1, 1 1, 2 1, 3 1,4 1,5 1, 6 2, 1 2, 2 2, 3 2, 4 2, 5 2, 6 x 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Sample 3, 1 3, 2 3, 3 3,4 3,5 3, 6 4, 1 4, 2 4, 3 4,4 4,5 4, 6 x 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Sample 5, 1 5, 2 5, 3 5,4 5,5 5, 6 6, 1 6, 2 6, 3 6,4 6,5 6, 6 x 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0

There are 36 different possible samples of size 2; because each sample is equally likely, the probability of any one sample being selected is 1/36. However, x can assume only 11 different possible values: 1.0, 1.5, 2.0,..,6.0, with certain 30 values 05/02/12 of x occurring more frequently than others.

SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF X
x
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5
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P(x)
1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36
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6.0

SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF X The most interesting aspect of sampling distribution of X is how different it is from the distribution of X, as can be shown 6/36 in figure below:
4/36 1/6

) x( p
1 2 3 4 5 6

2/36

) x( p

x
1 2 3 4 5 6

(a) Distribution of x

(b) Distribution of x

We can also compute the mean, variance and standard deviation of the sampling distribution
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_ Mean of the Sampling Distribution of X: x = xi P (xi) = 1.0(1/36) + 1.5 (2/36) + . + 6.0 (1/36) = 3.5 The mean of the sampling distribution of X is equal to the mean of the population of the toss of a die computed previously. Variance of the Sampling Distribution of X: 2x = (xi - x)2 P (xi) = (1.03.5)2(1/36)+(1.5 3.5)2(2/36)+.+(6.0 3.5)2(1/36) = 1.46 It is no coincidence that the variance of the sampling distribution of X is exactly half of the variance of the population of the toss of a die (computed previously as 2=2.92) Standard Deviation of the Sampling Distribution of X: x = 2x = 1.46 = 1.21 _ It is important to recognize that the distribution of X is different from the distribution of X as depicted in figure in the last slide. However, the two random variables are related. 05/02/12 means are the same ( = = 3.5) and their variances are related (2 33 Their x x= 2 /2).

To create sampling distribution of X, we repeatedly drew samples of size 2 from the population and calculated x for each sample. Thus, we treat X as a brand new random variable, with its own distribution, mean and variance. The mean is denoted x and the variance is denoted 2x. If we now repeat the sampling process with the same population, but with other values of n, we produce somewhat different sampling distributions of X. Figure in next three slides show the sampling distributions of X when n =5, 10 and 25. For each value of n, the mean of the sampling distribution of X is the mean of the population from which were sampling; that is, x = = 3.5

The variance of the sampling distribution of the sample is the variance of the population divided by the sample size; that is 2x = 2/n The standard deviation of the sampling distribution is called 05/02/12 34 the standard error; that is x = /n.

) x( p

3.5

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a) Sampling Distribution of X for n = 5

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8 7 6

) x( p

3.5

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a) Sampling Distribution of X for n = 10

36

1.4

1.2

) x( p

.8

.6

.4

.2

3.5

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a) Sampling Distribution of X for n = 15

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As we can see, the variance of the sampling distribution of X is less than the variance of the population were sampling from all sample sizes. Thus, a randomly selected value of X (the mean of the number of spots observed in, say, five throws of the die) is likely to be closer to the mean value of 3.5 than is a randomly selected value of X (the number of spots observed in one throw). Indeed, this is what you would expect, because in five throws of the die, you are likely to get some 5s and 6s and some 1s and 2s, which will tend to offset one another in the averaging process and produce a sample mean reasonably close to 3.5. As the number of throws of the die increases, the probability that the sample mean will be close to 3.5 also increases. Thus we observe in the figures that the sampling distribution of X becomes narrower (or more concentrated about the mean) as n increases. Another thing that happens as n gets larger is that the sampling distribution of X becomes increasingly bell shaped. 05/02/12 38 This phenomenon is summarized in the central limit theorem.

The accuracy of the approximation alluded to in the central limit theorem depends on the probability distribution of the parent population and on the sample size. If the population is normal, then X is normally distributed for all values of n. If the population is non-normal, then X is approximately normal only for larger values of n. In many practical situations, a sample size of 30 may be sufficiently large to allow us to use the normal distribution as an approximation for the sampling distribution of X. However, if the population is extremely non-normal, (for example, bimodal and highly skewed distributions), the sampling distribution will also be non-normal even for moderately large 05/02/12 39 values of n.

Sampling from a Normal Population

When sampling from normal population with mean and standard When sampling from aanormal population with mean and standard deviation , the sample mean, X, has normal samplingdistribution distribution: distribution deviation , the sample mean, X, has aanormal sampling distribution:
X ~ N (, ) n
2

This means that, as the sample This means that, as the sample size increases, the sampling size increases, the sampling distribution of the sample distribution of the sample mean remains centered on the mean remains centered on the population mean, but becomes population mean, but becomes more compactly distributed more compactly distributed around that population mean around that population mean
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Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

0.4

Sampling Distribution: n =16

0.3

Sampling Distribution: n = 4

f(X)

0.2

0.1

Sampling Distribution: n = 2
Normal population

Normal population
0.0

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Properties of the Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

Comparing the population Comparing the population

Uniform Distribution (1,8)

0.2

distribution and the sampling distribution and the sampling distribution of the mean: distribution of the mean: The sampling distribution is more The sampling distribution is more
bell-shaped and symmetric. bell-shaped and symmetric. Both have the same center. Both have the same center. The sampling distribution of the The sampling distribution of the mean is more compact, with mean is more compact, with aa smaller variance. smaller variance.

P(X)

0.1

0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Sampling Distribution of the Mean

0.10

P(X)
0.05 0.00 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

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Relationships between Population Parameters and the Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

The expected value of the sample mean is equal to the population mean:

E( X ) = =
X

The variance of the sample mean is equal to the population variance divided by the sample size:

V ( X ) = =
2 X

2 X

The standard deviation of the sample mean, known as the standard error of the mean, is equal to the population standard deviation divided by the square mean root of the sample size:

SD ( X ) = =
X

n
42

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The Central Limit Theorem

n = 20
0 .2

() PX

0 .1

0 .0

Large n
0 .4 0 .3

For large enough n: For large enough n: X ~ N ( , / n)

2

f( ) X

0 .2 0 .1 -

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0 .0

When sampling from a population When sampling from a population with mean and finite standard with mean and finite standard deviation , the sampling deviation , the sampling distribution of the sample mean will distribution of the sample mean will tend to a normal distribution with tend to a normal distribution with mean and standard deviation as and standard deviation as mean n the sample size becomes large the sample size becomes large (n >30). (n >30).

n=5
0.25 0.20

() PX

0.1 5 0.1 0 0.0 5 0.0 0

SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN NON NORMAL POPULATION CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM Unique feature of central limit theorem is that irrespective of the shape of the distribution of the original population, sampling distribution of mean will approach a normal distribution as the size of the sample increases and becomes large. It permits a manager to make inference about the population parameter based on random samples drawn from population that are not normally distributed. In general, a sample size of 30 and above is considered large.

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DIAGRAM DEPICTING THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM Central Limit Theorem

As the sample size increases and becomes large

The sampling distribution of the mean approaches normality

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The Central Limit Theorem Applies to Sampling Distributions from Any Population

Normal

Uniform

Skewed

General

Population

n=2

n = 30

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The Central Limit Theorem (Example 1)

Mercury makes 2.4 liter V-6 engine, the Laser XRi, used in speedboats. Mercury makes aa2.4 liter V-6 engine, the Laser XRi, used in speedboats. The companys engineers believe the engine delivers an average power of The companys engineers believe the engine delivers an average power of 220 horsepower and that the standard deviation of power delivered is 15 220 horsepower and that the standard deviation of power delivered is 15 HP. A potential buyer intends to sample 100 engines (each engine is to be HP. A potential buyer intends to sample 100 engines (each engine is to be run single time). What is the probability that the sample mean will be less run aasingle time). What is the probability that the sample mean will be less than 217HP? than 217HP?
X 217 P ( X < 217) = P < n n

217 220 217 220 = P Z < = P Z < 15 15 10 100

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= P ( Z < 2) = 0.0228

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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN IT FOLLOWS NORMAL WITH MEAN & SD /n Example 2: The safety limit of a crane is known to be 32 tons. The mean weight & the SD of a large number of iron rods are 0.3 tons and 0.2 tons respectively. 100 rods are lifted at a time. Find the probability of an accident.
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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN IT FOLLOWS NORMAL WITH MEAN & SD /n

Solution to Example 2: The accident will occur when the total weight of 100 rods exceeds 32 tons i.e. the mean weight X > 32/100 tons X > 0.32 tons. Hence, we have to find the probability that the mean of a random sample of size 100 exceeds 0.32.
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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN IT FOLLOWS NORMAL WITH MEAN & SD /n Given, population mean = 0.3 tons and S.D = 0.2 tons. Since sample size n=100 is large, the sample mean X follows normal distribution approximately with mean X= = 0.3 and standard deviation X = /n = 0.2/10 = 0.02. Therefore, the standardized value of sample mean 0.32 is
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Z = (0.32-0.3)/0.02 (since Z = (X-x)/x ~ N(0,1)) =1

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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN IT FOLLOWS NORMAL WITH MEAN & SD /n

Therefore, P (X > 0.32) = P(Z>1) = Area under the standardized normal curve to the right of the ordinate at Z=1 = (Total area to the right of Z=0) (Area between Z=0 and z=1) = 0.5 0.3413 = 0.1587 Probability of an accident is 0.1587.

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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN IT FOLLOWS NORMAL WITH MEAN & /n Example 3: Marks obtained by students in an aptitude test are normally distributed with a mean of 60 & S.D of 20. A random sample of 16 students is drawn from this population. a. What is the standard error of the sampling mean? a. What is the probability that the mean of a sample of 16 students will be less than 50.
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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN IT FOLLOWS NORMAL WITH MEAN & /n Example 4:

A manufacturer of automobile batteries claims that the distribution of the lengths of life of its battery has a mean of 54 months & a S.D of 6 months. Suppose a consumer group decides to check the claim by purchasing a sample of 50 0f these batteries & subjecting them to tests that determine their lives. Assuming that the manufacturers claim is true, what is the probability that the consumer groups sample has an average life of 52 or fewer months?
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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN IT FOLLOWS NORMAL WITH MEAN & /n Example 5: A certain type of bacteria occurs in all raw milk. Let X denote the bacteria count per ml of milk. The public health department has found that if the milk is not contaminated, then X has a distribution that is more or less bell-shaped and symmetric with mean =2550 & the S.D = 300. In a large commercial dairy, the health inspector takes 42 random samples of milk produced each day. At the end of the day the bacteria count in each of the 05/02/12 samples is averaged to obtain the sample average 54 42 bacteria count X.

SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN IT FOLLOWS NORMAL WITH MEAN & /n Example 5(continued): A) Assuming that the milk is not contaminated, what is the distribution of X?

B) Assuming that the milk is not contaminated, what is the probability that the sample average bacteria count X for one day is between 2400 & 2700 bacteria /ml? C) At the end of each day, the inspector must decide whether to accept or reject the accumulated milk that has been held in cold storage awaiting shipment. Suppose the 42 samples taken by the inspector have a men bacteria count X that is not between 2400 & 2700. If you were the inspector 05/02/12 55 what would be your comment on these situation?

SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN IT FOLLOWS NORMAL WITH MEAN & /n Example 6: The foreman of a bottling plant has observed that the amount of soda in each 32 ounce bottle is actually a normally distributed random variable with a mean of 32.2 ounce & S.D of 0.3 ounce. A) If a customer buys 1 bottle, what is the probability that the bottle will contain more than 32 ounce? B) If a customer buys a carton of 4 bottles, what is the probability that the mean amount of 4 bottles will be greater than 32 ounce?
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SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF MEAN IT FOLLOWS NORMAL WITH MEAN & /n Example 7: The number of pizzas consumed per month by university students is normally distributed with a mean of 10 & S.D of 3. A) What proportion of students consumes 12 pizzas per month? B) What is the probability that, in a random sample of 25 students more than 275 pizzas are consumed?

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Haute-Couture Fashions (HCF) Haute Couture Fashions Inc. (HCF) is a well known fashion boutique in New Delhi. It has catered mainly the socialites and the top elite in the city and its product line is consisted of Indian designer wear, churidar kurtas and such ethnic wear. The peak season for the boutique is the marriage season spanning 6 to 8 months in a year. HCF has a fixed clientele who patronize it year after year. It advertises regularly in upmarket fashion magazines like Arcade, Glad Rags etc. The boutique is planning to diversify in a big way. It was considering getting into western style outfits for the Indian women. There were many socio-economic changes in the society in last five years so that HCF felt that it would be a good proposition to enter the market.

CASE STUDY

The Western Wear Market

It was during eighties that the Indians gradually started to change the way they dressed. People were looking out for new ready-made styles. Export rejects at the cheapest level were seen on the pavements of Delhi and Mumbai. These were followed by hi-fashion stores for casual wear like Weekender, Benetton, Wear-house etc. These catered mainly to the young college going crowd for casual and semi-formal kind of clothes. The nineties witnessed the western the western-wear culture spreading to formal wear as well. The designer range was brought in by hi-fashion designers like Rohit Khosla and others. These clothes were very expensive and catered mainly women professionals in good managerial position. The cult has percolated and is known to dominate upper and middle class dressing as well these days. The next five years should augur well for the western hifashion garments with a continuous exposure to the latest trends through the fashion programmes on popular TV channels.

The Problem
While HCF was positive about the potential in the westernwear hi-fashion garments, it wanted to check out other related areas. It formulated a set of hypotheses for the same.
The client for hi-fashion western garments belongs to the upper segments of the society. The variables that influence their purchasing decisions are price, quality and uniqueness. The target audience is in the age group of 18-30 years.

Using results of above research, HCF would have to take a decision regarding its target segment and marketing mix:
Whether it should be selling its line of western-wear in established boutiques or should it sell in its own boutique? Whether it should open up another boutique catering to Westernwear? Whether it should have a new label for the western wear or use the existing HCF one?

The Research Design

Considering the importance of the decision areas, it was decided to undertake an exploratory survey visit. Women frequenting hi-fashion boutiques in Haus-Khas village, Santushti complex, South extension etc. were contacted and it was seen that nearly 50% of them were studying in college. The rest were working as professionals. Very few women are married. The monthly income was above Rs. 20000/- for most of them. Western clothes were perceived to be more of a fad than necessity by the middle income group. In light of above findings, the target consumer profile was that of a young, figure-conscious, fashion-conscious, college student aspiring to be model/professional and existing professionals in responsible jobs belonging to upper-income group. A structured, non-disguised, personally administered survey to get information on the hypotheses was considered the most appropriate.

The Sampling Design

HCF and its research agency were wondering as to which of the sampling options would be most suited for the purpose of the research. Option 1: HCF already had a mailing list of its existing clients belonging to the elite class. There were 500 such clients. A systematic sample or stratified random sample of 200 respondents, from the sampling frame based on the dimensions like frequency of purchase was found to be adequate to collect information as per the needs of the hypotheses. Option 2: The target consumer belongs largely to college going young girls aspiring to be models and professionals in other fields connected with glamour. The best way to contact them was to go to their colleges. A list of colleges in the university area and other colleges all over the city was available. A random selection of colleges should be done followed by a random sample on the college campus. At least ten colleges with thirty students in each college could be contacted.

The Sampling Design

Option 3: Visiting market complexes like HAUZ Khas village, Santushti complex, South Extension, Greater KailashI, Rajouri Garden and administering the questionnaires personally would give a fair crosssection of college going students and young women who are working professionals. A sample of 80 per market complex was considered adequate. Option 4: Identify the posh localities in Delhi city which would number not more than 30 or so. Use a cluster sample out of the 30 localities in various geographical areas. Contact 50 houses at random in localities for a maximum sample size of 300-350 respondents.

The Sampling Design

In all the cases, it was considered as an incentive to present the respondent with a purse, with the initials HCF embroidered on it very delicately. The boutique had requested the research agency to spend not more than four weeks for the entire research. Also, expenses would not be a very important criterion, as long as they were within reasonable limits. 1. Which of the sampling options described above would suit the purpose of the research and why?

SUMMARY
The sampling process is an integral part of any research design. The various component of the process are population, sampling frame, sampling unit and sample. There are two approaches to sampling i) Probability methods and ii) Non-probability methods. The probability approach yields sample which gives estimates of population parameters with known accuracy and at desired confidence levels. The sample selection procedure is, however, not very flexible, taking a lot of resources in terms of time and cost. When quick results are called for and quantitative analysis of behavioural trends and attitudes to be made for a simple number of respondents, non-probability methods are used.

SUMMARY
The typical probability methods used for saampling are
i. ii. iii. iv. v. Simple Random Sampling Systematic Sampling Stratified Random Sampling Cluster Sampling Area Sampling

Depending upon the nature of population, existence of a complete sampling frame as well as the level of precision desired one or a combination of the above methods is generally adopted. The Non-probability methods that are used are:
i. Convenience Sampling ii. Judgment Sampling iii. Quota Sampling

The results obtained from Quota Sampling are fairly precise and it has wide applications in social and consumer research.

SUMMARY The size of the sample is either determined by using the practical method, or if the allowable error limit and desired level of confidence are given with estimates of the population proportion or population standard deviation, as the case may be, it can be calculated using the standard formulae.