Introduction to Simulation

Chapter 1

Objectives
i. ii. iii. iv. Define simulation, system and model List types of simulation models List types of constructive simulation Introduce Discrete Event Simulation (DES) concepts v. List suitable problems for DES vi. Overview of a simulation study vii. Identify different tools for building simulation models viii.List advantages and disadvantages of simulation ix. List paths to failure and success in conducting a simulation project

Simulation

Educational perspective: Simulation is a digital learning material which allows learners to perform hands-on activities (e.g., mouse clicking, text entering, etc.) in order to receive additional tasks or information. Engineering perspective: Simulation refers to the process of designing a model of a real system for the purpose of understanding the behaviour of the system and/or evaluating various strategies on its operations based on specified objectives of a study.

System & Model

System a group or collection of interrelated elements that cooperate to accomplish some stated objective; e.g., bank, airport, etc. Modeling the process of producing a model Model a representation of a system s operations or processes similar to but simpler than the system it represents enables the analyst to predict the effect of changes to the system

Types of Simulation Models

live simulations (or role playing) - real people operate simulated operations of a real system using real equipment (e.g., training exercise of a fire drill). virtual simulations - real people operate simulated equipment in a simulated environment (e.g., flight and vehicle simulators). constructive simulations - real people operate computerised models by performing interactions and get feedbacks.

Types of Constructive Simulations

Type Learning support Example Soft skill Simulation Exposing learners with work experiences before they actually deal with real situations in order to improve learners communication and decision skills Software application simulations Situation-based simulations; e.g., Business and Management training, customer and sales training, doctor-patient interactions and customer services Mechanical device simulations; e.g., medical/manufacturing /home electronic equipment Queuing systems Manufacturing systems Logistic models Policy analysis and design Population systems Ecological systems Economic systems

Procedural Simulations Understanding the physical or Virtual products characteristics of real life equipment and learning to use complicated equipment Discrete Event Simulations (DES) Understanding the operation of a system which is represented by a chronological sequence of events

System Dynamics (SD) Understanding the behaviour of complex systems over time which involves internal feedback loops, stocks (entities which accumulate or deplete over time) and flow (the rate change of the stock)

Discrete Event Simulation (DES)

Limit our study to Discrete Event Simulation (a.k.a. DES) DES operations of a system is represented by a chronological sequence of events (i.e., discrete points of times where state variables change values) State variables variables that affect system performance; e.g., resource utilization, total production, number in a queue, etc.

DES (contd.)

A model intended for a DES study is a mathematical model developed using DES tools (languages or software). Mathematical model classifications include: deterministic input and output variables are fixed values stochastic at least one of the input or output variables is probabilistic static time is not taken into account dynamic time-varying interactions among variables are taken into account Typically, DES models are stochastic and dynamic

DES Concepts

Entity any objects that enter a system, move through a series of processes, and then leave the system; e.g., customers, patients, parts, etc. can have individual characteristics (attributes)- a common characteristic of all entities but with a specific value that can distinguish the entity; e.g., name, priority, due date, account number, etc.

DES Concepts (contd.)

Resources any objects that process entities; e.g., workers, machines, etc. Queue a space to wait a resource. DES Model a computer program that represents the logic of a system as entities with attributes arrive, join queues to be allocated and processed with a number of required resources, and then exit the system.

Real World System Under Study

Simulation Study Simulation Model Simulation Experiment Simulation Analysis Conclusion

Altered System

DES Study Schematic

DES Projects

DES modeling involves two fields: Art system analysis and modeling Science the programming and statistical components

DES Project (contd.)

Most are conducted by team Need two types of people: 1) people who know and understand the considered system; e.g., designers, systems, manufacturing or process engineers 2) people who know how to formulate and model the system as well as program the model (simulation specialists) If we do not have (2) hire people with the necessary skills contract the modeling to outside consultants

DES Project (contd.)

train some of our own people data collection, statistical skills and programming skills some combination of the above

Suitable Problems For DES

Generally, when there is a need to model and analyze randomness in a system. More specifically: It is impossible or extremely expensive to modify certain processes in the real world; e.g., large manufacturing systems Problems in which mathematical model can be formulated but analytic solutions are either impossible or too complicated (e.g., complex systems like large scale queuing models)

Suitable Problems For DES (contd.)

It is impossible or extremely expensive to validate the mathematical model describing the system; e.g., due to insufficient data Suitable areas: Computer and communication systems Manufacturing Transportation Service systems

A Simulation Study
Steps that should be present in any simulation study: 1) Problem Definition Clearly defining the goals of the study

The purpose why are we studying the problem What questions do we hope to answer?

2) System Definition Determining the boundaries and restrictions to be used in defining the system (or process) and investigating how the system works

Divide the system into logical subsystems. Define the entities and resources Define the basic flow patterns of entities through the stations using flow diagrams

A Simulation Study (contd.)

3) Conceptual Model Formulation Developing a preliminary model either graphically (e.g. block diagram or process flow chart) or in pseudo-code to define the components, descriptive variables, and interactions (logic) that constitute the system 4) Collect and process real system data Identifying and collecting the input data needed by the model. Example:

Time between arrival (Inter-arrival Time) Processing time at each station Route time (travel time) between stations

-very time consuming and difficult (1/3 of the total time used in the study)

A Simulation Study (contd.)

Potential sources of input data

Historical records Observational data Similar systems Operator estimates Vendor's claims Designer estimates Theoretical considerations

5) Model Translation Formulating the model in an appropriate simulation language

A Simulation Study (contd.)

6) Verification and Validation Verification make sure the computer program performs as expected and intended. Validation the process of reaching an acceptable level of confidence that the inferences drawn are correct and applicable to the real-world system being represented.

Does the model adequately represent the real-world system. Is the model generated behavioral data characteristic of the real-world system's behavioral data? Does the simulation model user have confidence in the model's results?

A Simulation Study (contd.)

7) Design and Run Experiment A simulation experiment is a test or a series of tests in which meaningful changes are made to the input variables of a simulation model so that we may observe and identify the reasons for changes in the performance measures 8) Analysis and Interpretation Drawing inferences from the data generated by the simulation runs

A Simulation Study (contd.)

9) Implementation and Documentation Reporting the results, putting the results to use, recording the findings, and documenting the model and its use. Choosing an appropriate vocabulary (no technical jargon). Length and format of both written and verbal reports (short and concise). Must address the issues that the sponsor or user consider important.

DES Tools

A simulation model can be built using: General-purpose programming languages General-purpose simulation language more flexible Special purpose simulation packages are easier to learn Some of the advantages of using a simulation package Reduction of the programming task Provision of conceptual guidance Increased flexibility when changing the model Fewer programming errors Automated gathering of statistics

DES Tools (contd.)

Types Of Simulation Packages Programming Languages Simulation Languages/packages High Level Simulators Application-Oriented Simulators Examples FORTRAN, C++, Visual Basic AweSIM , Extend , GPSS/H , Micro Saint, SIMSCRIPT , SLX, MODSIM III, SIMPLE++ Arena, SIMUL8, Flexim Manufacturing: AutoMod, ProModel, QUEST,WITNESS Communication/computer: COMNET III, NETWORK II.5, OPNET Modeler Business: BP$IM, Extend+BPR, ProcessModel, ServiceModel, SIMPROCESS Health Care: MedModel

Advantages of Simulation
We can test new designs, layouts, etc. without committing resources to their implementation It can be used to explore new staffing policies, operating procedures, decision rules, organizational structures, information flows, etc. without disrupting the ongoing operations Simulation allows us to identify bottlenecks in information, material and product flows and test options for increasing the flow rate It allows us to test hypothesis about how or why certain phenomena occur in the system

Advantages of Simulation (contd.)

Simulation allows us to control time. Thus we can operate the system for several months or years of experience in a matter of seconds allowing us to quickly look at long time horizons or we can slow down phenomena for study It allows us to gain insights into how a modeled system actually works and understanding of which variables are most important to performance Simulation's great strength is its ability to let us experiment with new and unfamiliar situations and to answer "what if" questions

Disadvantages of Simulation
Simulation modeling is an art that requires specialized training and therefore skill levels of practitioners vary widely. The utility of the study depends upon the quality of the model and the skill of the modeler Gathering highly reliable input data can be time consuming and the resulting data is sometimes highly questionable. Simulation cannot compensate for inadequate data or poor management decisions

Disadvantages of Simulation (contd.)

Simulation models are input-output models, i.e. they yield the probable output of a system for a given input. They are therefore "run" rather than solved. They do not yield an optimal solution, rather they serve as a tool for analysis of the behavior of a system under conditions specified by the experimenter

Paths to Failure
Failure to define a clear and achievable goal. Inadequate planning and underestimating the resources needed Inadequate user participation Writing code too soon before the system is really understood Inappropriate level of included detail (usually too much) Wrong mix of team skills

Paths to Failure (contd.)

Lack of trust, confidence and backing by management

Paths to Success
Have clearly defined and achievable goals Be sure we have adequate resources available to successfully complete the project on time Have management's support and have it known to those who must cooperate with us in supplying information and data Assure that we have all the necessary skills required available for the duration of the project Be sure that there are adequate communication channels to the sponsor and end users

Paths to Success (contd.)

Have a clear understanding with the sponsor and end users as to the scope and goals of the project as well as schedules Have good documentation of all planning and modeling efforts