http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?

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 Why should we care about failed states?

2002 U.S. National Security Strategy: “America is now threatened less

by conquering states than we are by failing ones.”
Who are we worried about?
Iraq, North Korea, Iran
What is a failed state anyway?
Some obvious indicators:
Government has lost control of its territory or of the monopoly on the
legitimate use of force
(Extra Credit? Which political theorist defined the state as the
bearer of the monopoly on the legitimate use of violence? Think
back to the beginning of the semester.)

More subtle indicators:

When regimes lack the authority or capacity to deliver public
services.
Population relies entirely on the black market,
doesn’t pay taxes,
general disrespect for the government
 civil disobedience.
 Why should we care about failed states?

failed states are known as a source of dangerous exports:

international terrorists, drug lords, weapons arsenals
How many?
World Bank: 30 “low-income countries under stress.”
Great Britain’s Department for International Development: 46 “fragile”
states of concern.”
CIA: 20
Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace
12 indicators
Ranks 60 states in order of their vulnerability to violent
internal conflict.
Index of the the new world disorder of the 21st century?
~2 billion people live in insecure states.
Differing degrees of “instability:”
Conflict, famine, disease outbreaks, refugee flows
Elements just below surface, yet to manifest
“Lawless” territory
Ex: Cote d’Ivoire, Colombia
Chechnya, Philippines
Afghanistan, Somalia
Sometimes states collapse suddenly, but usually there is a slow
and steady deterioration of social and political institutions
leading to the decay of the state.

Ex: Zimbabwe (#3)

Robert Mugabe, in control since 1980.
• Came to power as national hero
• Initially promoted peace and national
reconciliation. Increased education
• But couldn’t improve the economy
more educated population
began to challenge his policies  more
repression.
"This thing called democracy is a problem. It's a
difficult proposition because always the opposition will
want much more than what it deserves.“

--Robert Mugabe
 Morgan Tsvangirai, Robert Mugabe and Arthur Mutambara

Power-sharing deal: enough to keep Zimbabwe from failing?

World Bank : within five years, half of all countries emerging
from civil unrest fall back into conflict in a cycle of collapse.
Ex: Haiti and Liberia.
While weak states are most prevalent in Africa, they also exist
in Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East
Bolivia (#55): civil war?

President Evo Morales

Ukraine (#108): The image of stability?

Governing coalition between president Yushchenko

and prime minister Tymoshenko fell apart this month
No easy answers.
Elections often seen as indicator of stability
But not always

EX: Ukraine
Fraudulent elections  outrage.
Potential collapse of state
avoided by Supreme Court
decision that gave Yushchenko
his rightful place as president.
12 indicators.
Two consistently rank near the top:

Uneven development
Inequality within states (not just poverty) that
increases instability.

Criminalization or delegitimization of the state

State institutions regarded as corrupt, illegal,
or ineffective shift in allegiances to other
leaders (opposition parties, warlords, ethnic
nationalists, clergy, or rebel forces.)
Other prominent indicators:
Population pressures: refugees and internally displaced
populations.
Ex: Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo,
Colombia.
Severe environmental degradation.
Remember?
Transition
Consolidation