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Recovery Rate: Recovery Rate is possible amount which we would like to recover during the process of bankruptcy of the counterparty out of total
obligation.
Credit Exposure :
Credit Spread : Credit spread is a variable that incorporates both the probability of default and recovery rate. Credit Spread is the difference between a riskier bonds yield and a risk free bonds yield.
The risk free bond may be RBI Bond/Govt. Bond (e.g. Flood Relief Bond) Risk Free Bond of a Corporate without Risk Premium. Risky bond with risk premium (all corporate bond).
For Calculation of Credit Spread we require to find out 1. Yield of Government Bond 2. Yield of Corporate Bond Without Risk Premium, 3. Yield of Corporate Bond With Risk Premium, 4. Find calculate and Compare between the Yield of 1 & 2, between 1 & 3, and between 2 & 3.
For Example : Yield of RBI treasury Yield of RIL bond without any risk premium. Yield of RIL bond with risk premium. Credit Spread between 1 & 2, between 1 & 3, and between 2 & 3.
Risk Free Government Bond : Risk free Government bond has 100% payback of principal and interest on due date. In case of India risk free government bond such as RBI treasury bill (independent or on behalf of central government) or RBI / SBI issues the treasury bill on behalf of the state government/s. All these treasury bills are risk free/default free bond, because they are backed by the full faith and credit of a countrys government/provincial government. Expected Return Investment in Govt. Bond = --------------------------------------------1 + Rate of Interest on Treasury Bill Suppose expected return = 100, and rate of interest = 5% p.a., then Required Investment = 100 / 1+ (5%) = 100/1.05 = Rs. 95.24 or say for return of Rs. 100 @ interest 5% we require Rs. 95.24.
rate of return. The corporate bond has lower risk without any backing.
Properties of CBWRP 1. There are inherent risk or say there are probability of default e.g.10%. 2. You are not looking for a risk premium e.g. 0% risk premium on 10% risk probability i.e. inherent risk probability on CBWRP. 2. The recovery rate will be <100% e.g. if there are chances of default we will recover 70% of the investment or say we will loose 30%.
assumed value which you will get in case of default and non-default of
bond. (a) In case bond does not default, you will receive 100 with 90% chance,
(b) in case of bond default you will receive 70 with 10% chance from your
bond. Combined Value will be as below (a) 100 x (100-Inherent Risk) --- in case of non-default. (b) Recovery Amount x Inherent Risk --- in case of default. For Example In case RIL there are 10% inherent risk, 70% recovery Amount if the firm default. The Estimated Payment Value = 100 x (90/100) + 70 x (10/100) = 100 x 0.90 + 70 x 0.10 = 97
That means your maximum estimated amount will be Rs. 97 with 10% inherent risk and 70% recovery rate at estimated amount Rs. 100. Now we calculate the required amount of investment to obtain Rs. 97 @ 5% fixed rate of return.
Expected Return Investment in CBWRP = --------------------------------------------1 + Risk Free Rate of Return Or 97 / 1 + (5/100) = 92.38
Expected Return
Investment in CBWRP = --------------------------------------------1 + Risk Free Rate of Return Or 97 / 1 + (5/100) = 92.38
Thus, to obtain Rs. 100; RBI investment = Rs 95.24 and impossible to get return 100 from CBWRP & CBWRP. To obtain Rs. 97 from CBWRP we require Rs. 92.38 To obtain Rs. 97 from CBRP we require Rs. 91.43 at 5% Risk Premium. CREDIT SPREAD
Credit Spread =
100 / (1+r+s) = 92.38 1+5/100+s = 100/92.38 1+0.05+s = 1.0824 therefore, s = 1.0824 - 1.05 s = 0.0324
or 0.0324*100
= 3.24
100 / (1+r+s) = 91.43 1+5/100+s = 100/91.43 1+0.05+s = 1.0937 therefore, s = 1.0937 - 1.05 s = 0.0437 Now, Credit Spread at basis point CSbp = (s2 s1) * 100 = 4.37329 - 3.24853 = 1.12475 = 1.12475 * 100 = 112.475 basis point or 113 CSbp.
or 0.0437*100
= 4.37
We know that (when other things remain constant) Higher risk = Higher return Higher risk = Higher premium Higher risk = Higher spread Higher risk = Lower quality of security or conversely Lower risk = Lower return Lower risk = Lower premium Lower risk = Lower spread Lower risk = Higher quality of security.