The Great Divide: SocioDemographics and the New Economy

Click to edit Master subtitle style John W. Bardo jbardo@email.wcu.edu

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The Push for College Graduates

Universities and community colleges are facing increasing pressure to expand the number of college graduates based on largely on the notion that the majority of good jobs in the future will require college education According to various estimates, as many as 63 percent of all jobs 5/5/12

Jobs in the New Economy

The term New Economy describes aspects or sectors of an economy that are producing or intensely using innovative or new technologies. This relatively new concept applies particularly to industries where people depend more and more on computers, telecommunications and the Internet to produce, sell and distribute goods and services. (OECD, 2011)
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Prosperity in the New Economy is seen as tied to education. For an entityin this case a stateto be prosperous, it must have an educated workforce Given the changing demands, it is understood that this cannot be accomplished without including traditionally under-involved people including women, minorities, and those 5/5/12 with low-income

However, policy discussion does not currently focus on the specific structure of the link between the New Economy and Education, nor the patterns of enrollment and employment of the key populations (women, minorities, and low-income) who will compose a 5/5/12 substantial, if not majority, of

My Research
What are the key structures of the New Economy that might be related to demand for educated labor, unemployment, state GDP, and average household income? To what extent do patterns of enrollment in four-year colleges and universities relate to these key structures and economic performance 5/5/12

Innovation and Entrepreneurship Very few Americans are aware that small and medium-size businesses are responsible for most of the jobs in America
(Jim Clifton (2011), The Coming Jobs War. New York: Gallup Press, p.29)
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According to Richard Florida

Real wealth is based on the the goods and products we wish to consume or of the things (factories, machinery, and educated workforce) that give us the ability to produce more such goods and services.
(Richard Florida (2010) The Great Reset. New York: Harper Collins, p. 111)
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Key New Economy Structures

Magnitude of the state-level New Economy Business Innovation Education-linked Innovation

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Key Indicators: Business Innovation

v

Employment in high tech businesses as a percent of all employment

v

Computer specialists as a percent of the workforce

v

Business R&D as a share of industry inputs

v

Engineers as a percent of the workforce

v

SBIRs per million dollars of state GDP

Venture capital per million dollars of state GDP

v

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S&E graduate students per thousand people age 25 to 34

Key Indicators: Educationlinked Innovation

v

Academic R&D as a percent of state GDP

v

S&E bachelors degrees per 1000 18-34 year olds

Percent of 25 to 44 year olds who are high school graduates

v

S&E graduate students per thousand people age 25 to 34 vSBIRs per million dollars of state GDP

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Key Sociodemographic/enrollment constructs

State college-going intensity (not rate) Traditional college enrollment Hispanic diversity

Traditional diversity (percent women, percent African American, and Percent on Pell Grants key indicators)

Financial aidcost discounting Education loans (middle-income financial

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Projections of Jobs Requiring Degrees by State

Component Business Innovation Education-Linked Innovation Traditional Diversity Financial Aid--Cost Discounting R2 Coefficient .30 .39 -.25 -.35 .56

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Median Household Income by State

Component Business Innovation Traditional College Enrollment Traditional Diversity Financial Aid--Cost Discounting Education Loans R2 Coefficient .23 .17 -.25 -.54 .27 .75

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Median Household Income by State with Percent College Graduates

Component Business Innovation Traditional College Enrollment Traditional Diversity Financial Aid--Cost Discounting Education Loans Percent of Adults with College Degrees R2 Coefficient .23 -.05 -.15 -.38 .24 .42 .81

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Per Capita GDP by State

(Without Arizona and Delaware)

Component Hispanic Diversity Financial Aid--Cost Discounting Education Loans R2

Coefficient .31 -.36 .58 .54

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Per Capita GDP by State With Percent College Graduates

(Without Arizona and Delaware)
Component Hispanic Diversity Financial Aid--Cost Discounting Education Loans Percent of Adults with College Degrees R2 Coefficient .29 -.25 .51 .23 .58

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Annualized Unemployment Rate by State, 2009

(Without Michigan)
Component Magnitude of the New Economy in State Education-Linked Innovation Traditional Diversity R2 Coefficient .26 -.31 .27 .31

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Annualized Unemployment Rate by State, 2009 Including Percent Adults with College Degrees
Component

(Without Michigan) Coefficient

.27 -.27 .26 -.08 .31

Magnitude of the New Economy in State Education-Linked Innovation Traditional Diversity Percent Adults with College R2

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What About Education-Linked Innovation?

Component Traditional College Enrollment Traditional Diversity Enrollment Intensity Hispanic Diversity R2 Coefficient .51 -.29 .26 -.25 .48

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Some Policy Approaches

States need to be careful that the completion agenda does not undermine the key role of Education-linked Innovation associated with graduate education, R&D, and technology transfer. Increasing support in these areas would be even more beneficial

Universities must find ways to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of undergraduate education as measured by meaningful student learning and increased throughput

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States need to adopt a unified approach to higher education and economic policy consistent with the NGA Best Practices papers

States must recognize the importance of inclusion if they are to meet their educational and economic goals
Create a national dialog that focuses more specifically on the types of education that are necessary to be competitive

Assess science in elementary schools: teachers focus on what is evaluated

Train teachers regarding best practices in early science education

Focus on self-esteem and self-confidence; these are key issues

Create a national mentor program for traditional minorities and Hispanics

5/5/12 Better advertise and support scholarship programs

for science and technology majors

At universities, expand services and support systems for traditional minorities and women

Expand and fund support for studies of disincentives that affect under-represented populations majoring in critical need areas

Work with the professional associations to deal with the subtle messaging that affects professional self-esteem and confidence

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American competitiveness is based on linking educational achievement, economic innovation, and inclusionthere is no silver bullet

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