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AGENDA
THE RISK SHARING APPROACH COSTLY STATE VERIFICATION INCENTIVES TO REPAY INCOMPLETE CONTRACTS DISCRIMINATING AMONG BORROWERS
REPAYMENTS
CASH FLOWS
DRAWBACKS
Is the audit threat credible? Should not renegotiation be introduced? Random auditing with high penalties may be more efficient
Legal enforcement
y R + P ( y 2 = y )( y y ) y y
( p , c )
Legal enforcement
Recovery rates ( p , c ) No strategic default R p y +c C Equilibrium: 2 pR + (2 p ) m R, c C ) = in(
Implications
Inefficient investment
Notice that a lower recovery rate on cash flows will lead to collateral based lending
Low legal enforcement (high borrower protection?) lead to lower levels of finance.
INCENTIVES TO REPAY
Cash flows observation is infinitely costly The incentives to repay may come from the benefits of receiving funding in the future.
INCENTIVES TO REPAY:
BOLTON-SHARFSTEIN SOVEREIGN DEBT
BOLTON-SHARFSTEIN(I)
Zero interest rates, risk neutral agents A project may have a high or low non verifiable cash flow In a one period contract, the borrower will pretend the low cash flow has obtained As a consequence credit market would not exist
BOLTON-SHARFSTEIN(II)
In the two period case the lender may promise additional funding to the borrowers that have repaid and no funding to the defaulting ones The incentives to repay for a successful firm are now :
y R + P ( y 2 = y )( y y ) y y
BOLTON-SHARFSTEIN(III)
In the dynamic case, a market for loans may develop because the threat of termination may provide the right incentives The bank promise to provide additional funding has to be credible
SOVEREIGN DEBT(I)
A simple model (Allen 1983) The countrys profit are:
= f ( L) (2 r ) L + implying : f ' ( L) = (2 r ) +
SOVEREIGN DEBT(II)
In an infinite horizon the present value of being denied credit by the borrower is:
V ( L) = ( f ( L) (2 r ) L) +
t t =2
t =
incentives (2 r ) L V ( L) +
SOVEREIGN DEBT(III)
Credit rationing? Bullow Rogoff argument
INCOMPLETE CONTRACTS
EX ANTE DESIGN AND EX POST RENEGOTIATION CASH FLOWS VS. PLEDGEABLE CAS H FLOWS